Why Is Covid-19 Less Survivable In The Uk?

[Gromit]

According to a study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle released yesterday, the UK could be the European country worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic, suffering a death toll over 66,000 by August.
The IHME, which produces the Global Burden of Disease study, believes that deaths in the UK will peak with an estimated 2,932 deaths on 17 April, and predicts 66,314 total deaths in the country by 4 August.
In the EU, Italy, Spain and France are forecast to suffer the highest death tolls, at 20,200, 19,209 and 15,058 respectively by 4 August.

https://ibb.co/pyhxVVb

[jim360]

You can't plan for the future unless you model it, Andy. Just waiting for reality to happen is almost certain to guarantee a worse outcome.

I'm not saying the projections are correct -- of course they must be taken in context, and the uncertainties emphasised rather than ignored -- but the reason we are in lockdown is precisely to avoid the possible extreme scenarios envisaged by these and other epidemiological studies.

[Spicerack]

Gromit //I don’t think population density explains our higher death rate. The Netherlands has higher density than us but only a third of our deaths.//

And a quarter of the population........Doh.

[KARL]

If I said the UK was anything different from what it is I would be lying. Pointing out the reality, however unpopular, is the only way to justify a claim that improvement is at least advisable if not necessary (I note the reaction is one of anger, not a factual rebuttal). Dislike of being reminded of reality, while perhaps explicable, is very likely to delay/obstruct improvement. Why should anyone encourage silence or join in it (praise backwardness perhaps ?) or have to leave the UK, simply because he/she wishes there was a real desire (let's not hope for determination) to avoid persistently humiliating situations instead of, at worst, pretending no improvement is possible (because by definition it already is "the best") ? Are those who refuse to accept that things can and should be better so determined to ensure they won't be that they will intimidate/bully/hound all desire for improvement and those who hold it beyond the discussion and the borders of the country ? Which serves the country/nation better, to hold up a mirror and reveal the carbuncles or pretend to the subject that what stands before us is Adonis ? Is the latter best and to thereby condemn the country to repeated/permanent failure ?

And for the record, I spent quite a few years in Iran and thoroughly enjoyed it - almost everyone I met was very broad minded, well informed, imaginative and tolerant to the point of being distinctly endearing. I would happily visit the place again.

[Togo]

Since 'lockdown' there have been nearly 3 million people coming into Britain on flights landing at Heathrow airport. There are 216 flights scheduled to land at Heathrow today April 8th, this means approximately 93,600 more people coming into the UK today. That is just Heathrow. How many have been observing the restrictions and inconvenience that we have invested in the last few weeks to assist our health service and essential goods providers? Is Holland, Germany, or indeed France allowing such numbers of incomers to compromise their efforts to protect their indigenous populace? One thing for certain.....3 million indigenous British people have not re-entered Britain since lockdown. Do the percentages that you so love all you "scientific thinkers"and tell us how many of these will be carrying the virus and how many need a hospital bed and staff to look after them. Then tell the yanks who are funded by the Globalist cabal, who produced the anti Britain snide "predictions",including Gates and Soros to do one.
P.S. It is being reported that yesterday France passed the 10,000 corona deaths figure, and that it shows no sign of slowing.

[Peter Pedant]

// UK death rate is a lot higher, cannot get exact number at the moment.//
erm no it isnt - spain and italy hold that honour

spain by allowing it to enter the old age population

we are around 5% - italy or spain tops 10% case fatality ratio

[fiction-factory]

Interesting figures, Togo- and concerning if true. What was the source please? Do your planes include cargo planes and flights bringing UK citizens home?

[Peter Pedant]

// this means approximately 93,600 more people coming into the UK today. That is just Heathrow. How many have been observing the restrictions//

screaming non sequitur alert - all this blah de blah about dirty foreigners or dirty Brits who are now foreigners (*) coz they have turned native and eat bats
is ONLY significant if there is NO c-virus in Britian and they are bringing it in

Hullloooo there is c-virus here already and basically a few more doesnt make much difference - it does of course if you get it as Boris is finding out

I think it is far more significant that an impt politician has got it - and what will be the effect of that? - the great and good who govern us will take it all Very Much More Seriously

[Peter Pedant]

this answer was so instant and quickly thought out that I mis spelt forriner - sozza readers

[ToraToraTora]

karl you know very little as fact, most of your anti British drivel is exactly that.

[mushroom25]

// There are 216 flights scheduled to land at Heathrow today April 8th, this means approximately 93,600 more people coming into the UK today. //

er, no.

arrivals at Heathrow (all terminals), are listed here.
https://www.heathrow.com/arrivals
this runs to 13 pages with 18 entries per page, plus 1 extra on the 14th - a total of 234 "flights".
but look closely - for instance there are 6 entries for 17h30 arrivals from Copenhagen. this is one flight (operated by BA) but with 5 codeshares for AA, Finnair, JAL, LATAM and Malaysia. there are many such examples. the actual number of aircraft landing is a good deal less than over 200.

[Spicerack]

In the US, airlines have to run (practically empty) flights to qualify for state aid. Don't know if other countries have similar rules.
I'm sure there must be some sense in this apparent madness, I can't think of it.

[Spicerack]

Very, very strange removal. Must have embarrassed someone.

[237SJ]

There are hardly any flights coming into Heathrow (or going out) Many of them are codeshares. Many of them are cargo only or taking nationals back to their country of origin

[NickorWan]

//spain by allowing it to enter the old age population//

I read the other day that in Catalunya there are just over 1,000 old folk’s homes, and Covid is in over half of them. It begs the question whether it is finding its way into old folk’s homes, or if it is actually in over half of most shared places but we only know about the old folk’s homes where many are dying.

[Peter Pedant]

there is a health warning on these data

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

which is the one given in the OP

IHME is a branch of the Uni of Washington State
and as such has not interest in being accurate

the graphs and graphics are fun but no clue is given about which model they are running and what assumptions they have made

the oxford school are right about march figures
you expect around 7000 to die in March from flu
so altho I dont credit it - the deaths COULD be a relabelling exercise

the only thing is that the Hospitals are stuffed and the dead are piling up

[Peter Pedant]

// It begs the question whether it is finding its way into old folk’s homes,//

q answered - yes it is - has found its way - and is killing a lot of them

this has happened in two homes in UK, and it kills around 1/3 before anyone thinks that it is odd ....

[NickorWan]

Yes but, is it finding them selectively, perhaps through a medical link, or is it getting around over half Catalunya.

[Togo]

Cannot for the life of me imagine why mushroom would manage to find flights from everywhere but miss the 3 from Islamabad. Can you?

[Togo]

Neither can I imagine why my figures require a source and a link......when the "facts and figures" (poetic licence there) contained in the information supplied by the op are willingly swallowed. Perhaps only "certain" facts are convenient for some.