The Economy

[johnny.5]

could the U.K. economy bounce back quicker than all the doom mongers predict ?
a lot of people will have more money in their accounts after this lock down as they have not been able to spend it/waste it that there could be a spending spree and if we all try to buy local then economies could recover quicker . or am I just being over optimistic ?

[Hopkirk]

An awful lot of people will have a lot less than they would have. Those that have money will be nervous of spending it in such uncertain times. I fear a very sluggish uplift.

[tonyav]

I think that there will be job loss's.

[Buenchico]

A lot of businesses will go bust, meaning that there will be high unemployment. Fewer people paying taxes and more people claiming benefits will put a massive strain on a financial system that will already be struggling to repay the massive government expenditure incurred during the lockdown.

Further, fewer people in work will mean fewer customers for the leisure sector (such as bars, restaurants, etc) and for stores selling non-essential goods. That, in turn, could lead to yet more businesses going bust and more jobs being lost.

We've still not fully recovered from the 2008 financial crisis and what we've got to come will be many, many times worse than that. So we're in for at least a decade or two of fairly high unemployment and tight financial stringencies.

However the UK Government's strategies for trying to keep businesses afloat and to save jobs will probably leave the UK in a far better position than in those countries where people have simply been left without jobs and where businesses have been allowed to go bust. In particular, the USA faces the prospect of a return to the 1930s for its economy unless their lockdown period turns out to be far shorter than many experts think it might have to be.

[johnny.5]

but some brighter news
more people spending more time in the U.K. more money being spent in our hotels more people going to our seasides our domestic tourism will increase more industry might return to the U.K. . We could be more self sufficient

[emmie]

i would suggest the exact opposite for the majority,
they will not bounce back from what is an economic crash. Many have lost jobs or been put on furlough from their place of work, some getting maybe the 80 percent salary, but i wonder how many will survive with mortgages to pay even with a deferment if that applies to them. If i were working then put out to grass my life would fall to pieces. As it is i am
basically retired and don't have quite so many outgoings as the majority do.

[TonyV]

emmie fortunately when I had the money from a retirement plan, had enough money to make us mortgage free, in front with most bills, apart from council tax whose offices are not open to receive payment, and their website is not working.

[emmie]

Tony, fine but lots of people are going to go bust in this time of austerity. My hairdresser closed which is no surprise as he was getting fewer and fewer customers.
he probably won't open again which will be my loss.

[10ClarionSt]

I believe that children not yet born will be paying for all of this when they are adults. I also believe the govt has panicked with it's cobbled together legislation. Lock down hasn't worked. The death rate has rocketed since the measure was introduced.

Yeh but, yeh but, yeh but the figures would have been a lot worse without the lock down, I hear you say; but that is only supposition and guesswork. The PM himself has a had a brush with death since the lock down.

All it amounts to is - head for the hills; circle the wagons; dive under the blankets; stick your head in the sand; stay home and play board games; watch box sets; make stupid inane videos to plaster all over social media.

The country needs to start getting back to normal otherwise people will be watching box sets and playing board games permanently if they haven't been re-possessed or evicted whilst claiming jobseekers allowance and UC.

But at least they won't have caught CV-19 and will be able to enjoy/endure all of the above simply because the govt got it wrong.

[youngmafbog]

For once I am with 10C.
As for the economy it is too early to make any predictions. If the Govt grow a ppair and start getting us back in the next couple of weeks then it may not be so bad. If they keep this up for another month or too then the doom mongers will be correct.

I do like your optimism and hope that you rove to be correct, however as pointed out above many people will be left broke and that will have the opposite effect. On top of that are huge debts to be repaid so taxes will have to rise big time.

On the other hand the World haas never had something like this. It is not like a normal recession so it remains to be seen how markets will react.

[cassa333]

I think the economy will have a sluggish restart.

Those in work will not want to chance spending in case their jobs go.

There will be shed loads of debt because those that have suddenly found themselves unemployed probably haven’t been able to sort benefits out yet.

Although the US has different workers rights (they seem to be able to just lay people off) the government are sending stimulus checks and they have more or less doubled the unemployment benefit. They have actually made being unemployed more lucrative than working. And as is always the case some will slip through these two nets they are doing a lot for people and business owners.

Stocks and shares take a nose dive whenever anything happens and if you can wait it out they will pick up again. The problem with investments of course is if you are having to dip into them for general and day to day expenses..... unless you are 95 or something your investments need to last a while...

[cassa333]

Actually forgot to add....

I think we need to think carefully what we buy and where from.

We should, where possible buy British or local etc. Not always possible of course but we can do our bit to support our local community businesses and of course holiday in the U.K. for a while rather than jetting off to the Costa’s or wherever.

[ichkeria]

The lockdown almost certainly IS working and we ought to stick with it for now but that surely is not the point when it comes to the economy.
One could argue that this country has seen two huge blows to its economy in the last few years; Brexit and the prospect of it and now this. The economy is not done distant planet. And as with Brexit I fear many of those shouting the loudest now that it isn’t important will be the ones suffering the most in years to come.

[ichkeria]

The US response I have to say has been abject.
Their society and above all their health service is not up to this sort of thing.

[Theland]

The second wave of the pandemic will come, or a new pandemic, so KT is a mistake to think that this simply a problem, albeit major, that will be solved and we move on.
The violence has started, in India, and this will spread.

[Gromit]

johnny.5

You are very optimist, not sure what that is based on, it certainly isn’t the facts.
We will bounce back, but incredibly slowly. We don’t even know what damage has been done to the economy yet, so we don’t even know the scale of the problem.
A lot of companies will go bust. A lot of people will lose their jobs and their incomes. We are headed for recession, depression and stagnation. And that will take many years to put right.

[royfromaus]

Gromit
johnny.5

You are very optimist, not sure what that is based on, it certainly isn’t the facts.





Has someone gone for the klaxon?

[jim360]

How disappointing that ymb agrees with somebody whose appreciation of how epidemiology works is so lacking that they genuinely seem to think the lockdown has made the disease spread more, rather than less.

[Gromit]

royfromaus

// Britain faces biggest slump for 300 years: Chancellor Rishi Sunak warns UK economy could shrink by 35 per cent and TWO MILLION could lose their jobs due to lockdown //

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8218341/Chancellor-Rishi-Sunak-warns-tough-times-come-amid-looming-recession.html

Only johnny.5 and possibly roy think a quick and painless recovery is on the cards.

[tiggerblue10]

I read somewhere that we could see another 'Great Depression' after this.

[lankeela]

Seeing these comments make me think some people really think the government have done this on purpose - what other options did they have? Had they not offered to bale out businesses and individuals they would have been crucified and yet when they do they still get criticism. You can't have it both ways.