More Stupid People Not Listening To The Advice.

[webbo3]

No wonder our death toll is going up when people cant listen to simple advice.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-police-chief-warning-over-uk-lockdown-split-as-britain-bakes-11985648

[Zacs-Master]

Reinfection (stoopid auto correct)

[Gromit]

* If we hadn’t have had the lockdown cases and deaths would be increased from present levels. *

Except there is no proof of that. We have had a fairly stringent curtailment in our movement and social distancing widely adopted by the public, and yet we have 31,500 dead. Are you claiming 31,500 is evidence of our success?

[Zacs-Master]

Are you claiming it isn’t, and if so, on what basis?

[Gromit]

It is you claiming lockdown has been successful and has kept the death toll to 31,500. I was asking you what the proof of that was, and whether The death toll aligns with your definition of success.

[fiction-factory]

Gromit- are you saying the figure would have been at or below 31500 without lockdown or only marginally above?
Has anyone done the experiment?
Can you explain how R0 has fallen from around 3.5 in March t consistently below 1 in recent weeks if lockdown hasn't helped?

[Zacs-Master]

I’ve never claimed it to be a ‘success’ because we simply don’t know what the situation would be without the restrictions. Likewise, no one can claim the figure to be a disaster.

[Zacs-Master]

Let’s not bring the R0 stats into this, ff. they are, at best, unreliable due to us not knowing how many asymptomatic people have spread the virus.

[Zacs-Master]

And the fact that the gene is constantly mutating.

[jno]

South Korea and Taiwan haven't been locked down. In spite of this death tolls have been vastly lower than Britain's - 5 and 0.3 per million respectively. So lockdowns aren't inevitably required. But what both those countries did have was a rapid response. Britain did not. So lockdown is a catch-up measure.

Since we're taking so long to learn from other countries' experience it probably makes sense to wait and see how others' easing of lockdown goes. Of course cases will then rise; it's a question of whether we can deal with the rise. Personally, I'll believe it when I see it. We've not done well so far.

[tiggerblue10]

The R appears to have gone back up to 1.1 in Germany. Guess we'll have to see over the coming days what will materialise as a result of their easing of lockdown.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52604676

[fiction-factory]

>Let’s not bring the R0 stats into this, ff. they are, at best, unreliable due to us not knowing how many asymptomatic people have spread the virus.

You've mentioned this before. For once in my opinion you are wrong. Scientists have been measuring R0 for years with infectious diseases. There are various methods they are using for R0 for Covid all across the world. The figures will not be perfect - that's why they give a range -say 0.5-0.9 - but they will be confident in ties within the range and certainly will be nowhere near the range of 2.5-4 that was measured/estimated in March.

[fiction-factory]

^...confident IT LIES within the range ...

[jim360]

The other point is that, depending on your sampling method, you don't need to track the whole population in order to make statements about it. Again this will come with an uncertainty, but in general a sample chosen sufficiently randomly will reveal something about the population as a whole. Those in senior positions will appreciate this far better than I can, so if Prof Whitty says that the R0 is below 1 on average then he's not going to say this based on dodgy sampling.

[Zacs-Master]

It’s a useful guide, ff. But cannot be completely relied upon for the reasons I’ve mentioned.

[david small]

The genies out of the bottle. Pandora‘s box is opened.
Everyone, yes everyone who can get the virus, will get the virus eventually. Attempting to slow down the inevitable is laudable, but futile. We, well, most of us will survive this viral onslaught. Destroying our economy will only make our future far more difficult.

[fiction-factory]

^Someone else doesn't get the bit about MANAGING the virus- keeping it to manageable levels so the NHS can cope and people can feel safe enough to return to work/normality when they get the chance.

[david small]

Dream on FF.

[jim360]

It's so pleasant to see sophisticated argument back-and-forth.

[archibaldy]

Doing the conga down the street doesn't contribute to the economy.

[andres]

South Korea---- now having second spike of infected cases.All traced back to one man in a club who unknowingly infected over 50 people before he was found to be positive ! Just been on the news.