Uk Covid Response - As Seen By Greece.

[diddlydo]

Please take a look and think that Boris and Co are still great:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/06/ve-day-heroes-patriotic-multicultural-britain
I hope the link takes you to the article re Greece as the headline is somewhat misleading!

[fiction-factory]

//Or, put another way, the so-called data fed to us each afternoon is pretty meaningless, especially as they "think" the R rate is somewhere between 0.5 and 0.9 - that's a huge difference. //

So what alternative data should be provided, diddlydo?

Regarding R0, Ithink they've learned not to pin things down too precisely (eg testing volumes, PPE delivery dates) but more importantly there is a margin of scientific error as well as an a element of not giving too much away. The key thing is they will be able to monitor it and will know if it exceeds 1.

[diddlydo]

If they can't calculate the R rate any more precisely than 0.5 to 0.9, how the hell will they know if a 0.1% rise takes the R rate to 0.6 or 1, the latter being the perceived danger zone whereas 0.6 is OK?

[fiction-factory]

They can calculate it but rightly don't want to be hounded by questions like - "it's gone from 0.88 to 0.91 this week- are you going to apologize to all those who have died because you allowed golf courses to reopen" or "can you give us a daily breakdown by town, age group and BAME group ".
I think the scientists and ministers will monitor it and will change policy if the range changes from 0.5-0.9 to say 0.8-1.2

Anyway it's also a range because it varies from area to area (Birmingham higher than London or rural areas say) or between settings (maybe 0.6 on the streets but 0.9 in care homes and hospitals

[iluvmargie]

jno I really don't know why you are picking on me and what's more I really don't care. I wont be taking you on because frankly, I don't like you and your British/English hating ways. Go and pick on someone else dear because you just bore the pants off me. And if anyone wishes to come on here and defend you against my 'onslaught', then bully for them!!

[retrocop]

Germany had loosened it's lockdown measures recently and already the R measure is beginning to accelerate upwards again to 1.1. :-(

[naomi24]

Diddly, my comment wasn’t ‘aimed’ at anyone. It was initially inspired by your constant attacks on this country but you can rest assured you have company.

Jim, //You're reading what I write subjectively, then. Any suggestion to the contrary is either deliberate pretence or self-deceit.//

I don’t pretend. And speaking of self-deceit, you don’t seem to have noticed I’m not alone in my perception. It really isn't 'It's not me - it's everyone else', Jim.

FF, unless you’re missing the point completely I don’t know why you keep posting details of counting methods. Togo at 21:19 Sun gave a good example of what I’m talking about.

[retrocop]

Sorry. Forgot to provide the link.


https://uk.yahoo.com/news/germanys-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-rise-021101344.html

[fiction-factory]

//FF, unless you’re missing the point completely I don’t know why you keep posting details of counting methods. Togo at 21:19 Sun gave a good example of what I’m talking about. "

I get Togo's point obviously but I think you are missing my points, Naomi.

First I'm repeatedly pointing out, as I think jim and some other are, that the only answer to this of Covid/with Covid discussion is to look at Excess Mortality. You must have noticed Chris Whitty mentioning this.

Second, I'm pointing out that whilst there may be an over recording of Covid deaths in some cases (eg as Togo's example) there is also under recording because as I understand it deaths in care homes or at home where Covid is on mentioned on the death cert are not counted if there was no Covid test. But maybe that doesn't matter- see my first point.

And as this thread was about comparisons with Greece the counting methods are important for those who want to make comparisons between countries and are therefore relevant to this thread. For those who don't want to make international comparisons then clearly it doesn't matter

Hope that's cleared things up Naomi

[naomi24]

Assume it has, ff. Going around in circles makes people dizzy.

[jim360]

It isn't everybody else, Naomi. I pay attention to what others say about me more than you seem to realise, but the context of their own views matters when making sense of that. I know in my heart that I'm not anti-British, except by a twisted and meaningless definition of that term, and, frankly, that's an end of the matter. Anything else you have to say about me you can keep to yourself from now on.

[jim360]

Returning to the topic:

// The question is how many deaths are attributable solely to Coronavirus? In order to ascertain the likely effect of the virus on the rest of society it's imperative that we make finding the answer to that question a priority. //

I don't think there will ever be an answer to this that satisfies you, at least not any time soon. Apart from in some very obvious cases, ascertaining a definitive cause of death can be very tricky. Covid-19 is undoubtedly a major contributing factor in the recent massive increase in deaths. Whether that is because it alone is responsible, or because in combination with other conditions it hastens death, may not become clear for years.

There's also an issue of interpretation. If the cause of death is "Covid-19 coupled with chronic heart condition" or some such, then both played their part, and as far as I can see that is enough to say that someone dies "of" Covid-19 (even if there was something else at play), but it may be that you'd see this as dying "with" Covid?

Moreover, even if there ever were an answer it's possible that this would change anyway as the virus potentially mutates to a more infectious or dangerous form. In any case, it's something that I am sure that is being actively researched alongside all of the other questions that the novel virus raises.

[naomi24]

Jim, I’ve responded to your post to me, that’s all. If you don’t want a response from me, don’t address your posts to me.