Second Spike And Lockdown Reimposed

[Gromit]

The Government were repeatedly warned again and again about reopening schools and easing lockdown too early. The R number had reduced to under 1 in London, but was still too high in the rest of the country.
Now in Leicester lockdown has had to be reintroduced because the deaths are surging again. Shops that only reopened last Monday are having to close again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53229371

This Government have been inept since the start of the pandemic and have just got worse.

[fiction-factory]

They always said that local lockdowns would be introduced if necessary, Surely it's better to focus lockdowns on where they are needed rather than imposing them everywhere and causing major economic damage for little benefit in most areas

[fiction-factory]

They mentioned Leicester at least a week ago as an area of concern. I'm not sure why are you just raising it now

[anneasquith]

Will be interesting to see if Leicester will be an isolated case ?

[Mamyalynne]

Because the announcement to reimpose restrictions has just recently been made in the House.

[fiction-factory]

//Now in Leicester lockdown has had to be reintroduced because the deaths are surging again. ??
I haven't yet seen any deaths data in these reports to back up your claim that deaths are surging in Leicester- I can only see references to an increases in cases of infection.
Can you help me out with any data and links to support the 'surge in deaths' claim. Is that an increase of hundreds of deaths? Or just a handful? or from 1 to 2?

[fiction-factory]

//In the north, the R number never got below 1 but they opened up anyway//
Again can you justify that because it doesn't tally with what was said by SAGE

[jim360]

The word "surge" has been over-used a lot lately. My understanding is that Leicester has seen a rise in cases, rather than deaths -- although it stands to reason that if cases rise then deaths will follow on a two- to three-week delay, so it's possible that we'll see signs of an increase in Leicester deaths over the course of mid-July.

What bothers me more about this decision is how it was presaged for a few days, leading inevitably to arguments between the Government and Leicester Council about whether it was necessary or not, and who said what to whom. There's still no coordination and that's frankly shocking.

[jim360]

FF -- estimates over June were that the R number for England was between 0.7 and 1, with "regional variations", eg:

https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18500838.coronavirus-r-number-yorkshire-revealed---parts-uk-rise-1/

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-06-12/what-is-the-coronavirus-r-number-in-regions-of-the-uk/

Given that these are estimates it's possible that they were wrong, but data from the ONS survey, daily case numbers etc, support an R across the UK of 1 or less for June.

[fiction-factory]

I think the increases in cases will lead to more deaths, jim360, but Gromit is clearly making statements here (eg surge in death, R rate was above 1 outside London) which are not backed up by data

[johnny.5]

which parts of Leicester ?

[New Judge]

//This Government have been inept since the start of the pandemic and have just got worse.//

They haven't been inept. They've simply been fooling themselves and the population into believing they can control the spread of the virus. And they can't.

[fiction-factory]

Yes, there will always be areas- maybe a street, maybe a small council ward within a town- where the R rate is above 1, but Gromit said "in the north, the R number never got below 1" which is implying it was over 1 across the north, which is untrue

[jim360]

It's clearly not impossible to control the spread. New Zealand and South Korea, among others, serve as testaments to that.

[brainiac]

Where does Leicester end, for the purposes of this? Is, say, a pub in a village on the outskirts exempt?

[fiction-factory]

Brainiac. From the BBC article:
"Mr Hancock said details of the wards in Leicestershire affected by the new lockdown measures would be published "imminently".
Suburbs of Leicester, such as Oadby, Birstall and Glenfield, will be among those affected"

[Gromit]

At the end of May, this is what SAGE scientists were saying...

Prof Calum Semple, Sage member:
// "Essentially we're lifting the lid on a boiling pan and it's just going to bubble over. We need to get it down to simmer before we take the lift off, and it's too early." //

Prof Edmunds, from the London School of Tropical Hygiene and Medicine and a member of Sage:
// The levels of coronavirus were still "very high" and many scientists would rather the number of cases declined before measures were relaxed.

Sir Jeremy Farrar, a member of Sage:
// Covid-19 is "spreading too fast to lift lockdown in England" and NHS test and trace "has to be fully working and infection rates have to be lower". //

Prof Peter Horby, Sage and chairs its NERVTAG subcommittee,
// The R number was still close to one and it was important we "don't lose control". //

Sadly, they have been proven right.

[johnny.5]

brainiac
my point exactly
Blaby ?
Enderby?
Wigston ?
Braunston ?
Narbourgh ?
Countesthorpe ?
Etc. Etc.

[fiction-factory]

I read somewhere that it was more of an issue in some of the areas of people of 'Asian heritage'. I'm not sure these people would be the first ones back in the pubs

[Jackdaw33]

Is it just mere coincidence that Leicester has one of the most culturally diverse populations outside London?