Are We Destroying The Economy In Order To Prolong The Lives Of The Old And Frail?

[dave50]

Are we putting the livelihoods of millions of young people, some with children and mortgages at risk so some old lady in a care home can live a bit longer? Yes that is an extreme and some might say heartless example but basically that is what we are doing. When are politicians going to get a backbone and stand up and say that yes there may be more deaths as winter approaches but I'm afraid it's something we will have to live with, there is not much else we can do apart from what we are already doing. Another total lock down is out of the question and would be economic suicide. As I have often said, we can't save everybody and the sooner people accept that the better.

[satprof]

Woofgang: My point is that life/death decisions have to be made in medicine, and that cost can be a factor. The reference to NICE is only one of the issues, but unlimited resources are clearly not available.

FF: Of course the graphs don't show a hypothetical situation, but my point is that the pandemic should be managed by reference to truly 'Key Performance Indicators' (KPIs) and not to the number of positive cases. The 'Cases' graph shows cases increasing at least three-fold from July until now, whilst the death rate has perhaps gone down three-fold in the same period. This, to me, is a clear indication that the control measures are excessive. In the real world, the KPIs should be monitored on a much more local basis, perhaps justifying some degree of local restrictions. Shutting down the country's inbound & outbound travel industries, and effectively preventing business travel is, however, out of all proportion to the risks.

[fiction-factory]

Re travel from abroad, satprof, I've never seen the case for quarantining except for perhaps countries with rates significantly higher than ours, and even then maybe only some limited testing of temperature and/or covid tests.
But I don't think quarantining or anything we are doing is the main factor putting people off travelling abroad - it's the knowledge that restrictions are in place overseas too: some restaurants and museums closed; restrictions on seating in bars; and the need to wear masks on all flights, on some roads and beaches and when browsing round resort shops/markets. Similarly restrictions here put off overseas travellers. Also I'm reluctant to pay for another holiday when i'm still waiting for refunds from the the two that they cancelled.
It would need action across the board by many countries, all agreeing to lift most restrictions and lift quarantining.

[Cryptical]

Armageddon.

[woofgang]

satprof "Woofgang: My point is that life/death decisions have to be made in medicine, and that cost can be a factor. The reference to NICE is only one of the issues, but unlimited resources are clearly not available."

And my point is that they are not made in the way that you advocate ie "This tranche of the community has more value than that tranche therefore we will apply interventions accordingly"

[Peter Pedant]

gooly - WHO personnel arent badly paid and so the writer whom we can refer to as - - - Dr Who...
has made the highest paid non-sequitur

// when the Covid-19 death rate for the last 7 days is a total of 51, or about 7 per day, which is more-or-less 1 person per day out of every 10 million people.//

got it? 10 milion people dont have Covid
so a death rate of 1 per 10 m is a little - - - white lie innit?

tush - whilst he was giving ( highly paid but what is wrong with that ?) advice to presidents and prime ministers - I was but a lab rat at Porton Down
[should I curtsey?]
I survived (*) anyway

a KPI seems to be a KPI only if he likes it - a very useful but somewhat heterodox view

if an index er of KPI shows a rise in cases
and another KPI ( or index!) shows a fall in death rate
I dont see that you can draw any conclusion

or perhaps the measures have no effect on the indices.

Me - logic to the core - no wonder SAGE has such difficulties. (oh and I am not paid enough)

[teacake44]

May be the question should be: are we destroying our own morals and values, even thinking of sacrificing the older and infirm. I certainly do. Who do you think has been building the economy since the end of WW2. Should a vaccine be found in the very near future you may regret even thinking along these lines, if you are one who thinks in that way.

[SparklyKid]

I have accepted that as far as possible we should just carry on regardless.
I have had my three score and ten plus another five years. Both parents died at 72.

I refuse to spend what is left of my allotted span living in abject fear.

My only concession is wearing a mask whilst shopping.

[teacake44]

Well my mother is 99yrs, and I wouldn't dream of sacrificing her for my health or wealth.

[margarettom]

I think it's true to say, the old and infirm know the score by now and can make their own decisions about the risks they want to take. So no one is being 'sacrificed'.

[satprof]

PP: I was not highly paid at WHO and didn't give advice to governments. I did things like establish satellite communications in Darfur & in the aftermath of the 2004 Tsunami. (We found that it's well-nigh impossible to help in a disaster situation if you can't communicate with the people on the ground.) In my job, I visited over 40 countries, usually the Ministry of Health, setting up computer & communication systems, so have some idea of Public Health and how it works (or, more often, doesn't work). I also ran the WHO website for a while in the early days, dealing with a variety of specialists such as epidemiologists.
As for white lies, there's no lie in saying that the current UK death rate is approximately 1 per day per 10 million population. If I were being pedantic, I would call suggesting otherwise to be a mathematical non sequitur.

Naturally, different people see KPIs differently. My argument is simply that the case rate is misleading as a KPI because it doesn't have the societal consequences that the Death Rate & the hospital bed occupancy rate have. It can't be denied that those rates have fallen massively in the last 3 months despite the Case rate (roughly) tripling.

Just as a matter of interest- Did any Porton people go on the recent WHO mission to Wuhan? They must know as much about this field as anyone on the planet. Actually, forget it, it's probably subject to the Official Secrets Act.

[youngmafbog]

It's not as simple as 'sacrificing' the old though is it?

Currently many people are not getting the treatment they need meaning they will potentially die early. Suicides will increase as will mental health issues that potentially will reduce life. So should we sacrifice those people to save the 'elderly'?

It's a fine line and as I have said before on here I am glad itis not me making the call. The problem now is that if we dont get the economy going you can add early deaths due to poverty to the count.

Surely the answer is for vulnerable to isolate themselves whilst the rest get on with it? I said this right up front before any lock down and I stick by it. The elderly are more than capable of looking after themselves and assessing risk I am sure.

[youngmafbog]

Oh, and the idea that jobs will go abroad if people WFH is nonsence. The big companies have had the tech to do this for at least 15 years and indeed have tried it. Guess what it didnt work.

What will happen of course is that rates of pay currently given in London and some other cities will drop as people used to lower income in more outlying areas will now be able to do the job.

[woofgang]

You have missed out the sequelae of covid. People have post covid issues, even young people, that don’t seem to be going away....muscle weakness and respiratory problems seem to be the main ones. Are you saying that an increase of non old people with chronic disabilty won’t have a social consequence or should we just ignore them and let them die too?

[woofgang]

Ymb, and as I have said before, individuals making their own decisions is fine, provided it doesN’t put the rest of us at risk. The old and at risk making their own decisions on an individual basis is light years away from making it public policy.

[Dagman]

So dave50, your mother or father become ill as a result of this, they die! Do you shrug your shoulders and say, "I'm glad the economy is back up and running, they'd have lived longer but that's a sacrifice worth paying so I've got a job!" ?
Life is the most precious thing, end of. Like others have said, I also have no answer to sorting out the economy, neither do you!
I don't agree with another lockdown, but what do you suggest?

[satprof]

Woofgang - I'm not advocating any 'value' selectivity in patient treatment whatsoever. I was merely pointing out that, as resources are not unlimited, choices need to be made.

My nephrologist tells me that I need dialysis and that as I'm 'only' 74 a kidney transplant would also be on the cards. If I were older, I could forget about a transplant. That isn't only based on the outcome but also takes into account the increased fragility of the body as it ages. Nevertheless, the possible availability of a 'lifesaving' transplant is a function of the relative 'benefit' it could bring. I'm afraid that in an imperfect world, medicine, like most things, has to live within available resources, and public health as much as personal health.

[teacake44]

The elderly are more than capable of looking after themselves?
Not if there in a care home, and government decide to transfer infected people from hospital to care home. My mother still lives at home at 99, she was in the safest place, and has not had any wish to go out for a few years now.

[Peter Pedant]

oh WHO is weasel health org is it
I agree that death rate of cardiac disease is number dying of cardiac disease over the whole population
BUT
if I said to someone - Covid - piffle the death rate is now around 1 in sixty million
coz I am counting the whole pop of England not only those wiv COVID !
your listener would go - "ereeeerrrrrrr FIX!" wouldnt he?

fr'instance =- maternal mortality rate
Number of deaths assigned to pregnancy-related causes during a given time interval, divided by the number of live births during the same time interval.[5]:3–20
it is around 1 - 2000

and hey everyone I am only counting muvvas who have babies in the year - not the 30m men in the country !

wow - science marches on !

no wonder Bonker Boris doesnt listen to scientists

[Porton Down to wuhan - dont know]
(Dom CUmmings: "I am sending a virologist to Wuhan who knows what he is talking about - but it is secret so I cant tell anyone" yeah - sounds like Whitehall)

[Peter Pedant]

// My nephrologist tells me that I need dialysis and that as I'm 'only' 74 a kidney transplant would also be on the cards. If I were older, I could forget about a transplant.//

is not the case in US ( can you pay - Jobs cd and paid for a complete non-starter and no one says - that liver cd have saved someone!
and netherlands - anyone gets one
not sure about other places

[Peter Pedant]

oh come on
this is a more interesting thread than most

communications in Darfur & in the aftermath of the 2004 Tsunami.

can I point out another little erm non sequitur?
Darfur is west sudan ( v sandy and dry - - and hot!) and no where near the sea
actually I looked on it as worse than where I was
Norvern Sudan

yeah and they are shooting each other big time in Darfur arent they - god knows why