Never known a leopard change its spots
They will say what people need to hear for now in order to get international aid
These people follow stone age ideology and whatever they do in the interim period they will shortly revert to type
As I said before it won’t be the Taleban of old, although that is admittedly not saying much.
It is in their interests to be less medieval than before.
But we must engage with them and hold them to account.
However they did negotiate with DT for a peaceable takeover and diplomatic relationships. Although Biden didnt follow Trumps plan which was to give back are by area maintaining the airforce base until last (in order to keep the Taliban on side) which has caused this mess its quite feasible the Taliban do want to keep relations with the West. They may also be, quite rightly, worried about the Chinese.
Before 9/11 the Taliban were doing deals with Texan oil companies.
The war put a stop to that.
The Taliban do not want US/British/Russians to return, so they are going to present themselves as moderate.
No point in predictions, we will just have to wait and see, judge them by their actions.
YMB
US companies modernised Afghanistan in the 1930/40s. They build the Helmand damn that produced tons of electricity and irrigation (ironically ideal conditions for ramping up the poppy trade).
Rather than being wary of the Chinese they will welcome their money in exploiting Afghanistan’s natural resources.
Not sure I am optimistic.
It is in their interests to succeed, and I don’t believe they are backward, stupid or medieval . We will have to wait and see.
The Taleban is not a homogeneous grouping
They have moderates and hard miners and just now they are probably taken aback by their rapid success.
So really impossible to say how things will go: the worrying thing is the prospect of the al Qaeda prisoners now released from custody. That’s not a very encouraging sign that they’re going to honour the bit about controlling terrorism.