This 'Bad Actor ' Trying To Harm Reform.
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When Releasing Covid Infection Figures, Shouldn't They Also Release The Number Of Tests Carried Out?
This would give us a running daily actual proportion of tests against positive results.
Answers
//It’s all there if you want to blind yourself with statistics// It’s those who are blind to those statistics whom the government depends upon for its message. Some people who are a little inquisitive may find it extremely odd that on the day that the “truly astonishing” infection figures of 77k were announced, there were also the highest number of tests...
11:56 Fri 17th Dec 2021
"Once again, I await the figures showing the number of tests undertaken which produced yesterday’s 87k cases. But I don’t expect the government to provide any of the comparisons I just have because to do so would mean they have to devise another way to scare the population witless."
As as been said before, a day's figure should not be taken in isolation and the seven-day figures show the percentage change compared to the previous period so they are showing comparisons.
As as been said before, a day's figure should not be taken in isolation and the seven-day figures show the percentage change compared to the previous period so they are showing comparisons.
"which is a 25% increase which is complete and absolute peanuts
I laugh when inflation reaches such figures" - govt official
I dont think there is a statement on this thread ( including mine of course and this one) which can be relied upon
as for a theoretical physicist having "a go" at biological stats, my advice is - - 'don't'
or as NJ might say" at this rate, we will all be dead"
I laugh when inflation reaches such figures" - govt official
I dont think there is a statement on this thread ( including mine of course and this one) which can be relied upon
as for a theoretical physicist having "a go" at biological stats, my advice is - - 'don't'
or as NJ might say" at this rate, we will all be dead"
//As as been said before, a day's figure should not be taken in isolation and the seven-day figures show the percentage change compared to the previous period so they are showing comparisons.//
No they should not be taken in isolation and a seven day average is a far better measure. However, the reason I was waiting for the daily test figures was to see how the %age of positive tests had varied (which you have kindly illustrated). The thrust of this thread is that simply stating the number of new cases (measured by positive tests) is useless when the volume of testing can vary so much. To understand how useless it is simply stop all testing. The government could quite rightly announce "there were no new cases yesterday" but unless they add "...and by the way, no tests were conducted" it is meaningless. But it's what the government depends on to instil anxiety and fear into the population.
No they should not be taken in isolation and a seven day average is a far better measure. However, the reason I was waiting for the daily test figures was to see how the %age of positive tests had varied (which you have kindly illustrated). The thrust of this thread is that simply stating the number of new cases (measured by positive tests) is useless when the volume of testing can vary so much. To understand how useless it is simply stop all testing. The government could quite rightly announce "there were no new cases yesterday" but unless they add "...and by the way, no tests were conducted" it is meaningless. But it's what the government depends on to instil anxiety and fear into the population.
//The data are published daily but how folk and the media use them, is up to them.//
I disagree somewhat, Corby.
Many people are not too well versed with interpreting data and they rely on "headlines" to guide them. What the media do is up to them and is obviously designed to sell papers. But the government has a duty to portray accurately what is happening, especially when their announcements have such profound effect on people's behaviour (and a consequent effect on the economy). Last Wednesday was a case in point (when the 77k cases were announced). The numbers of cases would almost certainly have been much worse the previous Saturday (when "only" 51k cases were announced) and on a number of days earlier this month, had the same number of tests been recorded. But it is the 77k that the government gravely announces in order to get its message across, and it's highly misleading, not to say in this case, extremely damaging.
I disagree somewhat, Corby.
Many people are not too well versed with interpreting data and they rely on "headlines" to guide them. What the media do is up to them and is obviously designed to sell papers. But the government has a duty to portray accurately what is happening, especially when their announcements have such profound effect on people's behaviour (and a consequent effect on the economy). Last Wednesday was a case in point (when the 77k cases were announced). The numbers of cases would almost certainly have been much worse the previous Saturday (when "only" 51k cases were announced) and on a number of days earlier this month, had the same number of tests been recorded. But it is the 77k that the government gravely announces in order to get its message across, and it's highly misleading, not to say in this case, extremely damaging.
"Where and how does the government make its grave announcements?"
Try where it has thrown copious cash
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Try where it has thrown copious cash
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Corby, you only have to look at the telly to see (usually) the PM accompanied by two stooges at their lecterns. You can hear Prof. Whitty offering his advice to the population to battle the latest "truly astonishing" figures and hear members of SAGE and others forecasting their doom, gloom and despondency. These are all predicated by referring to the misleading figures we have been discussing here. Agreed, some of these people are not "government", but they might as well be, such is the supplication of the government to them. If you want an example, take Prof. Whitty's "update" last Wednesday:
"Don't mix with people you don't have to. Omicron is spreading at an 'absolutely phenomenal rate' and is a really serious threat."
That statement alone wiped out tens of thousands of bookings in the hospitality sector. Many venues have closed entirely this side of Christmas; quite a few will never reopen. It was quite clear the PM did not agree with Whitty (which begs the question why did he ask him to attend the briefing). Prof. Whitty has a very narrow brief and a restricted agenda. The PM and his Ministers have a much broader picture to consider.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that infections are not on the up - they clearly are. But the government is allowing a misleading picture to be portrayed and are allowing their decisions to be unduly influenced.
There seems to be a huge wave of contrived panic over this latest variant. Earlier this week the UK Health Security Agency (whatever that might be) estimated that there were 200,000 cases of Omicron in the country and that cases were doubling every two days. If that's the case the entire country will be infected before the year is out. Even more chilling than that, this means that if everybody who dies can be tested in the 28 days before they die, every death in the country will be attributable to Covid. Now that truly is astonishing and I'm surprised it has not been portrayed on one of Prof. Whitty's famous (but largely undecipherable) graphs.
"Don't mix with people you don't have to. Omicron is spreading at an 'absolutely phenomenal rate' and is a really serious threat."
That statement alone wiped out tens of thousands of bookings in the hospitality sector. Many venues have closed entirely this side of Christmas; quite a few will never reopen. It was quite clear the PM did not agree with Whitty (which begs the question why did he ask him to attend the briefing). Prof. Whitty has a very narrow brief and a restricted agenda. The PM and his Ministers have a much broader picture to consider.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that infections are not on the up - they clearly are. But the government is allowing a misleading picture to be portrayed and are allowing their decisions to be unduly influenced.
There seems to be a huge wave of contrived panic over this latest variant. Earlier this week the UK Health Security Agency (whatever that might be) estimated that there were 200,000 cases of Omicron in the country and that cases were doubling every two days. If that's the case the entire country will be infected before the year is out. Even more chilling than that, this means that if everybody who dies can be tested in the 28 days before they die, every death in the country will be attributable to Covid. Now that truly is astonishing and I'm surprised it has not been portrayed on one of Prof. Whitty's famous (but largely undecipherable) graphs.
People are overthinking this and doing mathematic acrobatics to convince themselfs and us that theres no wave.
The figures for testing and cases arent perfect as they dont know how many LTFs are done and reported, especially negatives wont be reported.
But what is clear is its spreading fast. Look at how many football matches have been called off this week because of high cases. Theyve been tested regular for weeks but only in the last week and now is there a wave.
Same at work -lots off. We test every week but positives has shot up.
And look at schools- some have had to shut for some years due to staff shortages and high cases in classes this week, and my niece and nephew say there having diffrent substitute teachers everyday as so many are off with covid, and classmates have testing positive this week.
The figures for testing and cases arent perfect as they dont know how many LTFs are done and reported, especially negatives wont be reported.
But what is clear is its spreading fast. Look at how many football matches have been called off this week because of high cases. Theyve been tested regular for weeks but only in the last week and now is there a wave.
Same at work -lots off. We test every week but positives has shot up.
And look at schools- some have had to shut for some years due to staff shortages and high cases in classes this week, and my niece and nephew say there having diffrent substitute teachers everyday as so many are off with covid, and classmates have testing positive this week.
" Some people who are a little inquisitive may find it extremely odd that on the day that the “truly astonishing” infection figures of 77k were announced, there were also the highest number of tests..."
And some might also ask "why are there so many tests?"
The thing is, those figues are I absolutely agree potentially misleading, however there other methods used to determine the spread of infection, and they all say: massive increase in infection rate, and that's before you address the scientific analysis wghich says "far more infectious"
I'm no covid alarmist I hope, but in this instance when there is so much uncertainty, it surely is worth playing safe for a bit
And some might also ask "why are there so many tests?"
The thing is, those figues are I absolutely agree potentially misleading, however there other methods used to determine the spread of infection, and they all say: massive increase in infection rate, and that's before you address the scientific analysis wghich says "far more infectious"
I'm no covid alarmist I hope, but in this instance when there is so much uncertainty, it surely is worth playing safe for a bit
//...unless they test positive for covid there not counted as covid.//
No, but they should be. There is no doubt that people are dying because of the effects of Covid on the wider (inadequate) health service and on the population's general health and wellbeing as influenced by government restrictions. And there is equally no doubt that people are included among the 147k "Covid" deaths who did not die because of it. Whether one balances out the other we will never know.
However, we digress. Nobody is over thinking this or performing "mathematic acrobatics". Quite the reverse is true. People are under thinking it and are being encouraged to do so by the government. If they think it through properly they might come to a conclusion quite different to the one the government wants them to.
There is no doubt that a new wave is in progress. But the alarmists are holding sway yet again and are suggesting restrictions that will have little or no effect on the spread of the virus.
//And some might also ask "why are there so many tests?"//
A question I have been asking for some months. The only people who should be tested are those who display symptoms, and then only to establish what treatment they need. The only way to prevent spread by testing is for everybody to take a test at least once a day. This is utterly ridiculous and anything else is a waste of time. By the time "sufferers" learn whether or not they are positive they have been out and about and mixed with any number of people. In any case, many people simply cannot afford to isolate for a week or more and so vast numbers of people remain untested. The huge sums spent on testing would be better spent on vaccinations and the expansion of hospital facilities (which have actually shrunk in the last two years).
No, but they should be. There is no doubt that people are dying because of the effects of Covid on the wider (inadequate) health service and on the population's general health and wellbeing as influenced by government restrictions. And there is equally no doubt that people are included among the 147k "Covid" deaths who did not die because of it. Whether one balances out the other we will never know.
However, we digress. Nobody is over thinking this or performing "mathematic acrobatics". Quite the reverse is true. People are under thinking it and are being encouraged to do so by the government. If they think it through properly they might come to a conclusion quite different to the one the government wants them to.
There is no doubt that a new wave is in progress. But the alarmists are holding sway yet again and are suggesting restrictions that will have little or no effect on the spread of the virus.
//And some might also ask "why are there so many tests?"//
A question I have been asking for some months. The only people who should be tested are those who display symptoms, and then only to establish what treatment they need. The only way to prevent spread by testing is for everybody to take a test at least once a day. This is utterly ridiculous and anything else is a waste of time. By the time "sufferers" learn whether or not they are positive they have been out and about and mixed with any number of people. In any case, many people simply cannot afford to isolate for a week or more and so vast numbers of people remain untested. The huge sums spent on testing would be better spent on vaccinations and the expansion of hospital facilities (which have actually shrunk in the last two years).
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