More Catholics Than Protestants In N Ireland.

[sandyRoe]

That doesn't necessarily mean a referendum would see a vote for a united Ireland. Some Catholics will think they're better off in the UK.
If the north hadn't been such a cold house for Catholics throughout much of its existence the question of unity might never have arisen.
Thoughts?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/22/catholics-outnumber-protestants-northern-ireland-census

[mushroom25]

// doesn't necessarily mean a referendum would see a vote for a united Ireland //

on its own, no, but don't forget NI had a majority "remain" vote in 2016, and having the province ceded to the republic would see them back in the EU.

[Untitled]

i think a referendum there is all but inevitable and a unification result very likely… but not necessarily because of the greater catholics… ultimately this is a medium-term consequence of the UK leaving the European Union… if Scotland votes to secede then NI choosing to reunify is even more likely.

[Ken4155]

Sandy, how times change. When i did my 3 tours over there in the 70s, it was estimated that there were 2 Protestants per every Catholic.
I do think if the Catholic majority continues to rise, a referendum would be almost inescapable.

[Untitled]

i do wonder if Eire will interfere in the vote if/when there is one… on the one hand it is an objective of the irish state to unite the island but on the other it might damage the republican side

[Redhelen72]

I think that there will be a vote for unity not because of religion but because of Brexit and how we in NI have been left high and dry.
Not just with Brexit but the fuel rises - they have absolutely no idea when we will get the £400 that everyone else is getting.
We are only just getting a fuel cap to come in on 1st November just as the prices get hiked again!
Yet 80% of homes are heated by oil and nothing is being done about those prices - 500l currently cost £520 last year it cost £220, 500 litres would heat my cottage 3 hours a day for 2 months.

[sunny-dave]

Remember that (regardless of any vote in the North), there also has to be a referendum in the Republic.

Living in Kerry and having discussed this widely with locals, it is far from certain that there is enough appetite for unification.

Emotionally the idea of a United Ireland of 32 Counties is compelling, but on a practical basis many (most?) people don't think that the inevitable 'troubles' that will result are worth it.

If you add in that the Irish Republic simply cannot afford to replicate the magic-money-pipeline that Westminster uses to fund the fiscally broke North without raising taxes and/or cutting services, then a referendum down here would be a hard sell (if indeed the Government wanted to sell it).

[Ken4155]

Good point, SD. There could, of course, be a referendum held in the north and, if the result was a wish for unification, then a separate referendum in the south.
I would imagine the northern referendum would be just as hard a sell, though, given what occurred for almost 30 years.

[sandyRoe]

I agree Sunny Dave, few in the south would want to catch a tiger by the tail.
Ken, I can't understand how the ratios changed do quickly. I do know that young Protestants generally go to England or Scotland for 3rd level education. Many get jobs there and don't come back. Now a great majority of students in QUB are Catholics.

[Spicerack]

And Catholics aren't/didn't used to be too keen on contraception.
Majorities don't necessarily get what they want.

[sandyRoe]

The days of Catholic families with lots of children are long gone.

[naomi24]

The link says higher birthrates among Catholics closed the gap …

[Spicerack]

I'll take your word for it. But what happened 50yrs ago has a cumulative effect on today's numbers, does it not?

[Spicerack]

^ That was to Sandy.

[Spungle]

"If the north hadn't been such a cold house for Catholics throughout much of its existence" reminded me of the classic line by Lord Blackadder, "Cold is God's way of reminding us to burn more Catholics!"

[Old_Geezer]

Hardly surprising. Is the Pope still against contraception ?

[Spungle]

Is the Pope a Catholic?

[Old_Geezer]

No, actually. Learnt that from QI.

[ichkeria]

There should not be a referendum unless either it is obvious what the options are. And only then when it's obvious that one of the options is much more popular than the other(s)
The Brexit referendum should be a warning.

I really hope there never will be one, to be honest.

[ichkeria]

The "what ifs" and "if onlys" count for nothing.

The divisions in Northern ireland would not go away. And as sunnydave hinted, would the republic want to import those issues?

[nailit]

Religion poisens everything...

Hitchens wasn't wrong....