Mid Term Swing To Labour +9 Points, Oh Dear..

[ToraToraTora]

..Tories guaranteed win 2024, oh dear!

[DTCwordfan]

lol, maybe - Sir Kier Gormless not to rule unless he comes up with some serious national beerwarmers.

[Gromit]

Go to bed TTT.
Tories have lost a 1000 seats, by your criteria, that is good for Labour.
Stop digging that hole or you will be in Australia before the morning.

[ToraToraTora]

yes i agree as i said on the other post, congrats but 9% point lead now is not enough to win the next GE and we are mid term. Do you really think you can win the next GE with only 9 points mid term gromit?

[THECORBYLOON]

I suspect another monetary challenge is on the horizon.

[tomus42]

As per every other election that isn't a general election, it's a glorious victory for every party.

[Hopkirk]

Lessons will be learned

[ichkeria]

It means “not enough for an overall Labour majority” so it does spell Tory defeat.
If the Tories end up as the largest party in the next Parliament it will, as things stand, be miraculous.
Anyway, it’s dangerous to assume to much on any side on the strength of a low turnout in just one country of the UK.

[ichkeria]

It’s not “mid term” BTW: there’s probably just a year to go although it could I believe be spun out to Jan 2025

[10ClarionSt]

It's looking good for Labour. That's what some people don't like, eh, TTT?

[Untitled]

ToraToraTora said on wednesday may 3rd 2023

"If we lose more than 1000 seats Labour can claim a win."

the conservatives have lost 1061 seats

[10ClarionSt]

So it looks like the left-wing, commie 5C are on the march! :o)

[Untitled]

like many i have my doubts about how meaningful local elections are... most tories who currently say they are dissatisfied with their party will suddenly be alright with it again come the next general election... i suspect also that most of the people voting green or libdem in local elections will vote tactically in a GE to get rid of the tories... and we really don't know what will happen in scotland

i sincerely believe that the conservatives have done terrible damage to this country over the last 13 years and will continue to do it for as long as they are in power... i truly truly hope that they are driven out of government and stay there for a very long time ... unfortunately a hung parliament looks about as likely

[New Judge]

//...unfortunately a hung parliament looks about as likely//

Indeed. Best guestimates (and that's all they are) suggest Labour will be around 20 seats shy of an overall majority. This would involve some sort of Coalition and we all know how that turned out last time.

[ynnafymmi]

As far as im aware Starmer has ruled out a coalition with the nationalist parties(SNP,UKIP,etc),so the Lib-dems might be his next best bet.

[Untitled]

starmer has said numerous times that he won't participate in coalitions... we will see how long that lasts

[ichkeria]

“ This would involve some sort of Coalition and we all know how that turned out last time.”

It worked out very well in the end for the major party in that coalition.
Something the Lib Dems will have noted.

[fiveleaves]

It is hardly rocket science. At the next General Election people will vote for whoever is best placed to get the Tory out. In the cities, the North and Wales it will be Labour, in the much of the South it will be the Lib Dems. Sunak has a huge majority and might survive, but most of the current Cabinet are out

[ToraToraTora]

fiveleaves:"At the next General Election people will vote for whoever is best placed to get the Tory out. " - so the entire country is going to cooperate in tactical voting is it? Right oh!

[ClareTG0ld]

First of all, it's obvious that the Tories aren't "guaranteed" to win in 2024, although of course there's plenty of time for them to improve (or to avoid worsening) their position before the next GE. Also, the +9 Labour lead would certainly be enough to ensure that they are the largest party, so that in itself means that the Tories are at a significant disadvantage in the current climate.

Secondly, just on tactical voting, it is extremely difficult to measure this for certain (and, even to the extent that you *can* measure it, a voter who tries to vote tactically might still get things wrong). Still, the evidence seems to be that even when there are coordinated campaigns to get tactical voting going, the impact is relatively minor in practice, as most people simply don't (or, as I say, vote tactically but "wrongly"). See, eg, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/14789299211027423 , https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13689880500505231 -- in general the consensus seems to be that about 10% of votes, or less, in any given election are cast tactically. The point is that most people don't engage with elections that deeply: many, of course, don't vote at all, and many of those who do just go in to vote the same way they always would regardless of the campaign. Approximately 30% of Tory Labour voters in 2019, for example, had "always known" how they'd end up voting: see https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/12/how-britain-voted-and-why-my-2019-general-election-post-vote-poll/ ; I have a note of scepticism that the large number of voters who apparently only made up their minds in the last few weeks, or on polling day itself, is entirely accurate, but never mind.

Thirdly, I think the +9 lead here has to be put into proper context: there are no London/Scotland figures, for example, and this is also based on a projected national share for the LibDems of around 20%. That, and the similar overperformance of the Green party, probably serves to benefit Labour in a GE: people vote for the LibDems/Greens because it's the locals and it doesn't "matter" so much, but many of those could be expected to return to the main opposition party in a GE. That probably gives Labour a larger lead, assuming nothing else changes.

Still, the GE is a long way away. Time for things to change. But the fact is that, right now, the Tories are in a seriously bad position.