A Big Ukraianian "Gotcha"

[ichkeria]

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-plane-shot-down-a50-il22/

There are only ten of these A-50s in the possession of the Russian aerospace forces. And they are very expensive. They are manned (as this one was) by 15 highly trained personnel and providde target support for fighter aircraft.

On the minus side, Russia carried out 250 airstrikes on Avdiivka in Donetsk in the first two weeks of 2024. That is a LOT of bombs.

While Russia continues to launch offensives along the front line, especially on the north east, they have suffered eye-watering amounts of casualties for precious little gain. Can they sustain this?

[tomus42]

//they have suffered eye-watering amounts of casualties for precious little gain. Can they sustain this?//

Hopefully not. They are already using the war to get rid of their prison population. Giving out pardons to murderers etc as long as they agree to go and be cannon fodder on the front line.

[ichkeria]

No one knows for sure what is taking these planes down: Russia claims it was friendly fire, but it seems not. Either air defence missiles - but they' have to move them a long way south from where they are most needed. Or maybe some sort of advanced airborne asset as yet unknown.

[Old_Geezer]

We need to support such friendly combatants.

[youngmafbog]

Russia has a mad man at the helm. 

Sadly they will sustain it until either he is removed(or falls out a window) or there are no Russians left to be sent to fight.

[douglas9401]

Some say that Russia has many more sacrificial lambs than Ukraine and are therefore in a better position to slog it out, especially if international help for Ukraine starts to dry up.

[Peter Pedant]

can they sustain this? hasnt putin said that there are more Russians than Ukrainians

( Stalin - we will bury you   -  and ( Popey) how many battalions does he have?)

[ichkeria]

Neither side can win by force: that much must be obvious. But only Ukraine can win by use of non-force, if that makes sense. That is why the Russians have to keep going. And Ukraine has to keep fighting because obviously otherwise Russia would win. Russia certainly has a gigantic capacity to sacrifice human life and  an enormous appetite for destruction.

So therefore, I hear you cry: what if Ukraine a) runs out of people first b) stops getting any support. The former possibility is the more likely, actually: there is no way the support will dry up, despite the pantomime in Congress and the nefarious actions of the Hungarian government. But Ukraine is nonetheless losing far fewer people, including proportionately, than Russia. On the other hand, while no one bar the international volunteers come in to help Ukraine, russia tries desperately to recruit people from abroad, as well as migrant labour: see that massive fire at the weekend in St Petersburg in the Wildberries (Russian Amazon) warehouse?  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-67971416

It's claimed it was started by migrant workers there protesting at conscription. Russia's infrastructure is collapsing because of lack of cheap maintenance labour, hence the spate of power cuts and explosions in heating stations across the country.

 

[Peter Pedant]

Neither side can win by force: that much must be obvious. But only Ukraine can win by use of non-force, if that makes sense.

oh, not really seen that before. This means ( surely ) stalemate and that means .... politcal solution which the Ukrainians are not keen on

There are issues - ( a lorra lorra Russian speakers, and some Ukrainians cheerfully putting their children on trains to have free holidays in Russa - around 1m of them!)

[nicebloke1]

Looks like another hissy fit coming Ukrains way in the next few days if not sooner. Putin must be very tired of these hissy fits costing so much, and gaining very little for ones money.

[ichkeria]

"oh, not really seen that before. This means ( surely ) stalemate and that means .... politcal solution which the Ukrainians are not keen on"

What I meant by "non-force" is as in not the brute force Russia applies: that Ukraine can get its territory back by forcing Russian to withdraw: or Russia withdraws anyway. That is how it has worked so far. Not saying that will happen, but Russia can't win like that. They failed in Kyiv firstly because their special forces sent en masse were betrayed and slaughtered: and their blitzkrieg tactics couldn't work in that terrain, unlike elsewhere. In the NE they were tricked, and in Kherson their supply routes were cut off so they had to withdraw.

"There are issues - ( a lorra lorra Russian speakers, and some Ukrainians cheerfully putting their children on trains to have free holidays in Russa - around 1m of them!)"#

The is no political solution for the simple reasdon that no one trusts Putin any more. There was a political solution before in 2014/5 but it never worked, and a similar one now, even if it were tried, would end the same way.

As for "Russian speakers" that is a non-distinction. Everyone speaks Russian in Ukraine. Certainly everyone in the war zone and in most places beyond. Not sure when was the last time anyone put anyone on a train to Russia from Ukraine btw, cheerfully or otherwise. There have't been trains between free Ukraine and Russia for years. Have I misunderstood?

[ichkeria]

There are lots of explanations from Russian sources for yesterday's loss of the two planes. One is that it was a team of 22 (unusally specific) SAS operatives using manpads (max range 7km!), as retaliation for the deaths of some of their personnel whose funerals took place in London at the weekend.  (???)