Is The Fat Lady Getting Ready?

[ToraToraTora]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67361138

Labour need to beat Noo Laybore's 1997 (10.7%) swing with a record swing of 12.7% to win even a narrow majority. Can Sir Beer and Shazza produce that?

[naomi24]

I doubt it very much.

[ToraToraTora]

sorry Blair was 10.2%

[bhg481]

Well the Tories seem to be helping them with all the silly in-fighting that's going on instead of them all pulling in the same direction. It feels to me like they're admitting defeat and manoevering to be the next leader when Sunak gets the blame for the loss and is thrown out.

[naomi24]

If the Tories meet with defeat - and I think we'll end up with a mish mash of government - ultimately it will be on Sunak's shoulders.  He was the one who dealt the final fatal blow in getting rid of Boris - and that was the Tories' biggest mistake.

[Ellipsis]

Some of the swing would be artificial because the red wall votes were only "lent" for Brexit.  A big problem for Labour over the past few years has been the split votes in Wales and Scotland's respective nationalist votes, but that looks to be less big a problem this year - and the Tories itself could be split by Reform UK. So I think a big swing is possible ...

[bhg481]

I have exactly the opposite view; Boris was the one killing the Tories and his supporters failing to get behind his replacement will cost them dearly.

[ichkeria]

Yes it's possible: we've seen it from by-elections : ok those are what they are but history shows they are more significant than people think. I don't buy the "100 seat majority" thing though. 

[royfromaus]

Reform will also take Labour votes.

 

[naomi24]

bhg, the Toriies didn't win that huge majority - Boris won it.  They should have supported him throughout all the manufactured stupidity - because that's what it was.  They're the authors of their own misfortune.  

[Untitled]

boris ought to have been a better leader... it is not difficult to see why he lost the support of his party. it was irresponsible for them to choose him in the first place

[ichkeria]

Reform will take votes from people who might otherwise have voted Labour, but probably not in significant numbers. I'm still not convinced they will do so for potential Tory voters in significant numbers either when it comes to it: last time out they didn't stand in all seats (which IMO from their point of view is a daft thing to do this time). However, their presense probably affects the swing factor: these days swings vary widely. In older elections with just two or three candidates per seat, things were more predictable. So this is very much going to be an average, not a blanket statistic.

[naomi24]

Nonsense.  No one else would have delivered that result.  

[naomi24]

^That to untitled.

[ichkeria]

I agree with Naomi about Boris Johnson: sadly for the Tories he was better at winning elections than being PM.

On Reform, the Times Radio focus group interviewed a lot of people who had voted Tory in 2019 but who were not going to do so now, and some had good words for Farage . They were all going to vote Labour however ...

[Countrylover]

And here's   me wondering briefly who Noo Laybore is?

[youngmafbog]

It's going to be a tough challenge for them TTT but there will be so many varying factors it is difficult to know how it will all land. We have boundary changes, the SNP problems, Reform and thats before we get to SKS's flip flopping.  

As for Johnson he allowed his wife to take over, big mistake.  It's interesting how in his columns now he strikes the right chord but when in power went all green and soft.  He was best gone.

I suspect we will end up with a coalition. Hopefully the TINO's will be thrashed and kicked into touch.  The party then needs a total clean out of the liberals and start again.  Or of course declare itself liberal(as it is now) and allow Reform or similar to take the centre right position.

 

[naomi24]

I think people on both sides of the divide are in a quandary.  The north won't vote Tory again - they did that once only and that was in support of Boris and Brexit - but how can anyone with a modicum of sense seriously vote Labour with what's on offer?   Starmer, in a desperate attempt to please all of the people all of the time - until he achieves his aim - makes what he thinks are the right noises - and then makes other noises because he got the first attempt wrong - and that's all he does.  Labour has nothng substantial to offer, no plans - except to borrow a load of money to squander - and that's quite clear.  All we can see at the moment are the Labour supporting unions urging workers to bring disruption with continual strikes - and that, according to the promises to the unions of the not so fragrant Angela Rayner, will only get worse.   On the other hand, the usual Conservative voters have been let down dreadfully by this current bunch.  Apart from their appalling disloyalty to the man who brought them an enormous victory and saw them through Brexit and Covid, ad became a leading light on the world stage at the beginning of the Ukraine conflict, the sacking of Suella Braverman and the invitation to the coward that is the unelected Cameron to return has, I think, been the final straw in rendering this current government a farce.  A lot of people on both sides admire Nigel Farage - there's no doubt about that - he's strong - but whether when they go to the ballot box they will vote for Reform remains to be seen.  I hope they do.  Even if the count doesn't prove to be enough - and I do foresee a disastrous outcome with no one in particular governing - it would teach the rest of them - all of them - a well-deserved lesson.  Come election time just hang on to your hats!

[Old_Geezer]

The Tories' problem is that having done four fifths of sad all to tackle urgent issues they may find Labour doesn't need a large swing to them in order to win seats.

[Ellipsis]

> how can anyone with a modicum of sense seriously vote Labour with what's on offer? 

Because that's the only alternative. UK politics is abysmal - many of the MPs are inadequate or corrupt, the parties themselves are inadequate (hence being completely ineffective about the Post Office scandal until a TV programme shamed them into action) and somewhat corrupt, and the whole thing is based on a minority taking all.  Given that, one party and its MPs cannot hold sway for too long, or we fall off a cliff. We have to go the other way to get back to correct the national cause.  It's pathetic, but it is what it is.

[naomi24]

I can't see that there's going to be any correcting of the national cause with Labour.  Quite the opposite.  Disaster!