Are we likely to see a double-dip recession in the UK?

[rov1200]

"""UK retail sales fell in November, according to official figures, despite analysts' predictions of a rise.

Sales were down 0.3% according to the Office of National Statistics (ONS). That compares with a rise of 0.6% in October.

The ONS blamed a sharp fall in sales at non-specialist retailers, including department stores.

The figures came as a surprise to many economists, who had hoped for consumer spending to fuel economic recovery"""

[Gromit]

It could happen if the Tories get elected and cut public spending.

The expectation is that we will slowly climb out of recession. However, if money is stopped from being put into the economy, and we try to pay off the deficit too quickly, then the economy will stall again and recession will return.

[Sqad]

gromit........pays your money and takes your choice at the next election.

Tories.......spending cut sooner rather than later.

Labour....spending cuts later rather than sooner.

[dothawkes31]

but retail sales at this tiome of year show consistency and at work we have been consistently between 11 and 16% up on LY as are all the stores in the company, non-specialist retailers are the ones spending more on advertising and bulk buying to drive sales, increase and build on footfall and smash last years ATVs and as log as that is the focus at shopfloor level and sales tagets are exceeded, as is the prediction, then the ONS can go swivel and try to justify tgheir existanmce elsewhere.

[dothawkes31]

sorry for the bad typong it has sudddenly gone dark outside and it's too early to light the wick. bah humbug, and another thing, the ONS have not factored in the woolworths trade that many dept stores are snapping up, cos tghe woolworths loyal customer was not an online shopper traditionally and they are pounding the pavements looking for the value buys elsewhere

[Sqad]

kunni....that "black hole of debt" of £175 billion has been revised by certain experts as nearer £250 billion....and rising.

[rov1200]

The signs do not look very promising:

http://www.independen...ecession-1843068.html

[dothawkes31]

thanks for acknowledging the input from someone actually working with day to day retail targets and figures tut!!

[Sqad]

Thanks dot. ;-)

[rov1200]

Dot "one swallow does not make a Summer"

[Gromit]

The Tories want to half the deficit in 4 years

//The Conservatives, tipped to win an election due by mid-2010, have said they want to move faster than the current Labour government's plans to halve the deficit over four years.

The Bank of England has said the necessary fiscal consolidation could prove a headwind to economic recovery, raising the possibility that interest rates may need to stay lower to counter that constraint than would otherwise be needed.//

http://uk.reuters.com...idUKTRE5B72RQ20091208

It is important to pay back the deficit as soon as possible, but attempting to do it too quickly could stall the recovery, making more people unemployed, and the benefits bill shooting up.

[dothawkes31]

the retail industry is responding well to the financial climate and taking advantage of the seasonal opportunities to bolster their capital for the tough year ahead, it's the bloody banks that are causing the problem!!!

[VHG]

>Tories.......spending cut sooner rather than later.
>Labour....spending cuts later rather than sooner.

It is WORSE than that

Labour....GIVE MORE MONEY AWAY, THEN spending cuts later rather than sooner.

Tories......STOP GIVING MONEY AWAY, then spending cut sooner rather than later.

[bazwillrun]

I have one question

have you ever known analysts predict anything correctly ?

retail sales up/dowm more than expected
profits up/down more than expected
economy stonger /weaker than expected
exports up/dowm more than expected
SAARS gonna wipe us all out
BSE gonna wipe us all out
Swine Flu gonna wipe us all out

yawn yawn yawn

[rov1200]

But Baz if you get 10 economists in a room one of them is bound to be right.

[jno]

no, Rov1200, if you get 10 economists in a room you will get 23 opinions, all wrong.

[jake-the-peg]

The Tories spending cuts will involve putting a large number of public sector workers on the dole.

That means you stop getting income tax from them,
You stop getting national insurance from them,
You start paying social security to them.

Sack a £30K a year public sector worker and you'll be lucky to save half of that

Cut these jobs later when the economy is stronger and there's a better chance they'll get private sector jobs.

More haste Osbourne - less speed

[Poppetchops]

A secondary recession will occur when and if whoever controls the press and the money supply says so. In the meantime the so-called first recession is hardly noticeable to those who are in work and have no debt.

[jake-the-peg]

And who don't travel abroad and see the exchange rate drop
or haven't found a freeze in pay reviews
or haven't seen a drop in their employers revenue due to declining sales
or haven't walked into a city centre and seen shops go out of business

No I guess those people haven't - but they will in the next couple of years when the pay back has to start and public services are cut and taxes rise.

I'd expect larger student/teacher ratios in private and publicly funded schools longer NHS waiting lists, increased indirect taxation and cuts in benefits.