So, Hands Up. Second Wave Or Not?

[flobadob]

I've remained quite skeptical of the seriousness of the coronavirus doing the rounds recently and think a lot of it was played up in order to drive through a looming recession.

Anyway, my question is, do people really believe that this is a very serious pandemic that will come in ever more serious waves until a vaccine is found?

Will it perhaps return in a less serious nature?

Or is it on the same level as Spanish Flu in which apparently many many millions were killed second time around compared to the first wave.

Or will it quietly disappear, leaving only high jobless figures and economic turmoil in its wake?

I would love to hear people's thoughts.

[jno]

it's been partly suppressed, the death figures are down a lot, but whether easing the restrictions will make it worse again, who knows? But 40,000 deaths so far.

[douglas9401]

The last one, I think.

[Bobbisox1]

I don’t think anyone can answer that with certainty

[daisypotter]

I'm hoping for a vaccine, but aren't we all? I also think it will peter out eventually, not permanently, but a lot less serious.

[woofgang]

second wave as in nationally? Don't think so. Localised spikes seems more likely provided most people are sensible. Quietly disappear? doubt it.

[Peter Pedant]

The last one, I think.

the first one I think

[jim360]

We haven't quite finished the first wave yet, around the world at least. Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, Peru and a few other countries are still seeing cases and death rates on a general increase, or at least holding close to their peak level.

As far as pandemics go this is already, by any reasonable measure, the most serious pandemic besides HIV for the last century. I'm not sure that scepticism about its seriousness is reasonable any longer, except possibly if you treat serious and apocalyptic as synonymous.

[jim360]

Also, as to the possibility of a second wave, I am currently pessimistic. A lot of lockdown measures have been discarded, so I don't see that it makes sense to talk about "easing" so much as "ending" lockdown, in the UK at least. So in around a month I wouldn't be shocked to see case and death rates start to rise again. I dearly hope I'm wrong.

[pixie374]

I think we might, although less so than the first time. Just hoping for a vaccine soon.

[retrocop]

Well according to an Italian Quack (Ex premier Bunga Bunga's doctor) the virus is now weakening and dying off.
A Stamford Research scientist laconically stated his findings were *bullshine* . :-)

[retrocop]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-no-longer-clinically-exists-in-italy-top-doctor-says-11998608

[jim360]

Italy's seen a long-term downwards trend in new cases and deaths, so maybe he is right. But predicting that this is all over and being wrong seems rather bolder and stupider than warning it could get worse and being wrong.

[retrocop]

When some of these men are top virologists in the field and can't agree among themselves then I give up listening to them. I am in no hurry to go anywhere soon.

[tomus42]

I think that 'sombrero' curve will continue to go up and down, but they'll turn lockdown things on and off to keep it from going too high.
The trouble is people are starting to pretty much ignore the rules anyway at the moment.

[TheDevil]

I’ve not seen the figures, and i’m finding it hard to trust them anyway. Therefore i have no idea.

[jim360]

It would be a boring world if everybody agreed with everybody else, though. It's natural, and indeed almost necessary of you want to see progress, for top experts to disagree. That's how they find consensus in the long run.

[JimF]

It'll never go away completely, just like flu doesn't. And it will be a long time before a readily available and effective vaccine is found - years, I reckon.

[woofgang]

if a roomful of scientists of any speciality all agreed on anything I would be seriously worried.

[Prudie]

When there's top scientists saying something different from each other re second waves, social distance, lockdown measures and outlook every single day this will be just an entertaining discussion for some or opportunity to self-proclaim as an expert but other than that it's a pointless question as nobody knows who is going to be right in the end.

[Gromit]

The problem with the UK is we tested too late and are tracing too late. The data we are getting now is just one half of the puzzle, so impossible to make any conclusions one way or another.

I believe we are easing too early.
London was hit first and badly, but it is now past peak and safe to relax isolation. But in the rest of the country it is still rising, and has peaked, and the last thing we should be doing is socialising with 6 people at a time.

We probably won’t get a second peak, but instead of a reducing curve of the graph, it be a longer slower decline outside London.