Aintree

[Svejk]

2:00- Calipto- very very unlucky at Cheltenham(talking through my wallet, lol.)but he was.
3:40 tartan snow e/w
4:15changing the guard e/w
5:25 cantlow & on the bridge e/w/rfc

[berniecuddles]

only one bet for me today 3.40 aintree Mossey Joe, good luck with yours svejk

[Svejk]

good luck to you bernie. i'll only have a small bet on tartan snow cos derek o'connor's riding it.

[Everhelpful]

Anay Turge: 4.15 Aintree.

[Ken4155]

As per usual, when it comes to these festivals, i tend to rely mainly on the stats as races that have been run year after year tend to follow patterns. I choose the strongest stats in my selections, for instance in the first race, the 2.00, 10 of the last 14 winners had contested the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. There are 3 qualifiers today; Broughton, Calipto and Guitar Pete. And as 7 of the last 9 winners were favourites, the choice is the luckless Calipto who would have gone very close to wining that Cheltenham race but for a snapped stirrup leather, 2 flights from home. Obviously, there are often a few horses per race who tick a lot of the trends boxes and it is all down to how you interpret the available stats. Here are my interpretations:-)

2.00; Calipto @ 10/3 (Carries my free £5 bet from Stan James)
2.30; First Lieutenant @ 10/3
3.05; The New One @ 2/5 (Not backing, just watching)
3.40; Warne @ 4/1
4.15; Turn Over Sivola @ 9/1
4.50; Uxizandre @ 4/1
5.25; Doctor Harper @ 12/1

I have also had a little each way bet on Rock On Ruby @ 12/1 in the 3.05 (a return to hurdles may just spark it back to life) and a small 'saver' in the 4.15 on Claret Cloak (given my Burnley connections). I wont get rich on the above, not even if the first 6 all oblige in the Placepot, but i will have fun and for a relatively small outlay. Good luck to everyone who has a punt, today.

[ELVIS68]

I'm going for....

2.00 Broughton
2.30 First Lieutenant
3.05 Rock On Ruby
4.15 Astracad
4.50 DodgingBullets
5.25 Edgardo Sol

Good luck everyone

[Svejk]

we had the £180tc up in the foxhunter. placepots still going Ken.

[Ken4155]

Placepot bombed in the 2nd race - but it only paid £9.60 cos there were over 35,000 winning tickets:-) Won just over £380 as i backed all selections in single win bets (filling my boots on Warne @ 4/1) and put first 3 in trixie and last 3 in patent and e.w. treble. However, being the greedy so and so that i am, i am kicking myself for not having had the first winner. The stats said that those placed in the Triumph Hurdle do well in this race and Calipto wasn't placed - it would have been but for the broken strap - and only one qualified which, of course was Guitar Pete!!! Serves me right in bending the stats to suit my fancy. Will not make that mistake tomorrow:-)

[ELVIS68]

Well done Ken, I had the same opinion as you regarding Rock On Ruby, pity it wasn't a 2 mile race as I think it would've won.

[Ken4155]

I have just spent the last hour giving the stats for the first 4 races a cursory once over and, at first glance, it could well be that Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty can have a great day. And not always in tandem. Not made any hard and fast decisions, yet, but God is my fav trainer over the jumps so the chances of me sticking with these first impressions are pretty good.

[Svejk]

theres a coincidence. i was just looking myself. it looks darned hard to me, tomorrow.

[Ken4155]

That's why i prefer to stick with the stats, Svejk. If they are particularly strong they give me a starting point from which to base my decisions. And, at first glance, mind, they would indicate that God could win the first, Geraghty the second and the pair the third. Then God and Sam Waley-Cohen must have every chance in the fourth. I daren't look any further unless i get bogged down with the stables runners. Good luck with whatever you decide upon.

[ELVIS68]

Any ideas why Willie Mullins doesn't send a strong team over for Aintree?

[Ken4155]

Having trawled through the stats for today's races - and what a trawl it turned out to be despite a couple of small fields - i managed to whittle each race down to 2 or 3 possibilities and have hopefully chosen the correct ones. I particularly found the 3.40 race almost impossible to read as all the more fancied runners do not tick that many boxes as regards trends. I have chosen an outsider in the race purely because it was 4th in this race last year on similar going though i have gone for number 2 for my placepot purposes (Too cowardly to include the outsider). The first 2 selections are in a trixie with Burtonwood 2.20 Lei, and the 3.05, 4.15 and 4.50 selections are in a patent and e.w. treble. I hav also done all selections a win singles with various stakes.

2.00; Josses Hill @ 2/1
2.30; O'Faolain's Boy @ 5/2
3.05; Rajdhani Express @ 4/1
3.40; Dunowen Point e.w. @ 16/1
4.15; Seeyouatmidnight @ 5/1
4.50; Stonebrook @ 6/1
5.25; Tara Mist @ 7/1 (e.w. on Roll On Ruby @ 25/1)

Also done the jackpot/placepot but i would settle for a couple of winners, preferably the 16/1 and 25/1:-)

Good luck.

[Svejk]

i cant pick anything today. i've been waiting for you to put your tips up. lol.

[Ken4155]

^^^

Just don't be sending the boys round if they lose:-)

[Svejk]

as if :o)

[ELVIS68]

I'm backing a few of the horses I backed at Cheltenham.

2.00 Act of Payroll
2.30 Don Cossack
3.05 Rajdhani Express
3.40 Double Ross
4.15 Seeyouatmidnight
4.50 Cheltenian, Hazy Tom e/w
5.25 Plum Stone

Good luck

[Ken4155]

I began the day with a bang, but then the selections took a bit of a bashing, though the winners of the 2nd & 3rd races were on the stats short lists. However, if you cast your minds back to my post of 00.26 this morning, you will see i hinted at a good day for God and his connections. I put 5 of his in a small stakes (50p) Canadian and with the 3 winners (2/1, 9/1 & 6/1) my Paddy Power account has just been boosted to the tune of £165.50. So i'm about a ton up on the day - i went in a bit high on O'Faolains Boy!! - to add to yesterday's total. Which all means that whatever happens tomorrow, i will end the meeting in pocket - my betting fund for tomorrow is £150 (£50 of it on the National and the rest on gg's and footy). Now i begin the arduous task of trawling through tomorrows fields. In the words of Captain Oates, "I may be some time!"

[ELVIS68]

Well done mate, I did remember your post every time Henderson had a winner.

Even though he's been in the game 50 odd years he still gets emotional when he gets a winner, and Barry Geraghty is one of the best jockeys around.

Seeing as you're the top tipster this week Ken, can you post your football bets up as well?

[Svejk]

i thought you'd have a good day, ken, when i saw the results.
didn't bother myself.