The Cheltenham Festival 2021

[Ken4155]

It will no doubt be strange viewing this year with no crowds being allowed through the gates, but ITV are to include a recording of the famous 'Cheltenham Roar' when the tapes go up for the first race. They have not yet decided whether this will continue throughout the Festival. In my most humble of opinions, i believe they should - it would certainly add to the atmosphere. What say you, fellow punters?
I have been perusing the stats for the opening race, the Supreme Novices, and while the form lines would suggest either Appreciate It (5/4) or Metier (9/2) should win, there are a couple of strong stats that threaten to put me off both. Favourites have won 4 of the last 20 runnings - and none of those was under 3/1 - and horses who began their careers on the flat account for only four placed runs in the last 13 years.
Another strong stat is that only one winner from the last 10 years did not win last time out.

I'm leaning toward the JonJo trained Soaring Glory @ around the 6/1 mark.

[Togo]

Just had a quick shufti at the card for tomorrow. It looks pretty hot all through with some real conundrums to sort out. You had better get the slide rule and log book out when you do your stats algebra Ken. The Coral and Challenge cup races are like alphabet soup at first look.

[Ken4155]

Thankfully, Togo, there are some decent stats to help me whittle the large fields down to a more manageable number; such as in the 3.40 where only 4 of the last 24 winners have carried more than 11 stone to victory. Of course, the trouble with that is, if the stats can help knock out nearly half the field of a 23 runner event, i still have to find the winner from the other half:-( Not managed it yet, this week, but yesterday's total return of just under £100 means i am at least hitting the woodwork :-)

Done the same again with the 'popular' tips; Envoi Allen, Imperial Alcazar, Onemorefortheroad,Paisley Park, Farclas & Hook Up, £1 e.w. acca. £35 or £17,780.

ITV 7; Envoi Allen, Champagne Platinum, Fakir D'oudairies, Onemorefortherod, Sire Du Berlais, The Shunter and Royal Kahala. £1 e.w. acca, £54 or £38,135.

Main Bet;

1.55; Champagne Platinum @ 7/1 (7 places)
2.30; Fakir D'oudairies @ 5/1 (5 places)
4.15; Royal Kahala @ 11/2 (5 places)
4.50; Hold The Note @ 15/2 (6 places)

Win singles, 20p L15, £1 e.w. acca. 4 placed = poss £25, 4 winners = poss £3,574.

£1 e.w. singles on the following (all enhanced places with Sky); Storm Arising (16/1), Flooring Porter (12/1), Eamon Cnoic (33/1), Perfect Myth (22/1) & Storm Control (14/1).

A rev f/c in the 2.30; Fakir D'oudairies and Min

And the Placepot; 6-11-4-12-14-13

If any become nr/s, i can always cash out and make another selection or leave the cash where it is.

Best of luck to all - we're gonna need it :-)

[drmorgans]

A punter stood to win over £500,000 if Envoi Allen wins the first race. He's partially cashed-out at £250,000 but his winnings could be £320,000 if Envoi Allen wins.

A different world to my "punting".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/horse-racing/56435950

[Ken4155]

A very enviable position to be in. Of course, if the fav does the business (and he is 2/2 at the track and unbeaten in his career), there will be those who will call him a mug for cashing out and not having the courage of his initial convictions. I would have done the same - guaranteed £250K for a £5 outlay. What's not to like about that?

[Togo]

He only staked a fiver Doc. Ante post long term punt placed about a year ago. Look at the odds he took on the choices. Most of em turned out odds on or as skinny as odds can be. One non runner would have goosed the bet. Hats off to the man.

[Ken4155]

In fact, i've just looked at the prices he originally took and my bet would have been an e.w. wager :-)

[Spicerack]

^I was wondering what he'd do. See he 'chickened out' and cashed in.
What would you (any of us) have done? I'd have probably done the same. I suppose it depends on your circumstances to a certain extent.
And he only stood to lose a £fiver. ;-)
It was a very strange bet he placed, must be a pro of some sort. He said 1 let him down for £120,000 at last years festival.

[Togo]

Same here Ken. I saw the story last night and thought ... no brainer, take the £250k all day. It can be pulled out due to "illness" or injury, or fall besides losing.

[Spicerack]

^lol. Only Drmorgan was there when I started replying. Slow one fat finger typist.

[Spicerack]

His bet should have been subject to a £250,000 limit. (which was waived) That must have had a bearing on his thought processes.

[Togo]

These are my picks to win my quarter mill. :)) It was hard to leave out some of my favourite horses that have done me proud previously, like Min, Paisley Park, & Potters Hedger. Though I will be doing a little e/w on the latter or I will have a nervous breakdown before the off. ITV7 done, Placepot and Jackpots done, and a little e/w on the most popular ITV7 choices once again. Add Billy Ray to the list below for the Doncaster leg of the ITV7. Have just done the **** 4 horses, for now, in a punt E/W Acca E/W Doubles & Trebles. Can cover t'others as and when it pans out. Will be doing e/w singles anyway. Going for a walk first on the miserable damp and grey prom.

Shan Blue @12/1 1.20Ch
Champagne Platinum* @15/2 1.55Ch
Mister Fisher* @17/2 2.30Ch
The Storyteller* @10/1 3.05Ch (extra place)
A Wave Of The Sea* 11/1 3.40Ch
Gauloise @15/2 4.15Ch (extra place)
Morning Vicar @ 14/1 4.50Ch

[Ken4155]

Don't think he's a pro, Spice. A £5 acca? That's classed as a 'mug's' bet to a professional gambler.
As he only partially cashed out, he still stands to increase his winning by another £72K should Envoi Allen win. The £250K is what he gets should the fav boil.
Spice, where did you read the max payout rule had been waived? Not being an ante-post fan, I always believed this rule is only implemented if the bet is settled on the day?

[Ken4155]

My son has just attacked me again with a similar text to Tuesday's. So i have doubled some of my bets and have done another e.w. single in the shape of Redford Road in the 1.55 @ 33/1 (7 places).

[Ken4155]

Had Envoi Allen been 'pulled' just prior to the race, he woud have received over £90K - no doubt with a hefty rule 4 :-(

[Spicerack]

Racing Post.
Has Francesca rushed from her cleaning job today?

[Ken4155]

Cheers for that, spice. Trust the RP to cover all aspects of the story :-)

[Ken4155]

Bet he's chuckling his nuts off, now :-)))))))))))

[Ken4155]

Puts paid to my 2 e.w. accas, the ITV7 and the placepot :-(

[brainiac]

Just as well he partially cashed out - Envoi fell early!

[Spicerack]

Mmmm. Shows what can happen.