The Cheltenham Festival 2021

[Ken4155]

It will no doubt be strange viewing this year with no crowds being allowed through the gates, but ITV are to include a recording of the famous 'Cheltenham Roar' when the tapes go up for the first race. They have not yet decided whether this will continue throughout the Festival. In my most humble of opinions, i believe they should - it would certainly add to the atmosphere. What say you, fellow punters?
I have been perusing the stats for the opening race, the Supreme Novices, and while the form lines would suggest either Appreciate It (5/4) or Metier (9/2) should win, there are a couple of strong stats that threaten to put me off both. Favourites have won 4 of the last 20 runnings - and none of those was under 3/1 - and horses who began their careers on the flat account for only four placed runs in the last 13 years.
Another strong stat is that only one winner from the last 10 years did not win last time out.

I'm leaning toward the JonJo trained Soaring Glory @ around the 6/1 mark.

[Togo]

Talk about bamboozled? I had a winner at Sedgefield and the daft E/W Acca I for some reason did on the ITV7 most popular selections came in. 3 won 4 seconds. Gave me £12 back for a place acca. Haha. I am better off trusting everybody but myself. Try again tomorrow. The ITV7 has rolled over. 200k tomorrow.

[Togo]

Ahh Spice is posting. Though you had gone abstemious Spice.

[Ken4155]

Not surprised the ITV 7 hasn't been won, Togo, with the 80/1 winner in the last.
Been watching the racing on my 'magic' box, rather than listen to some of the morons on ITV.

[grumpy01]

Ken,you’ve changed your opinion quickly as you told me to turn the sound down.I guess one of the morons had a cap on and was posted at the start.

[Ken4155]

Grumpy, i didn't watch ITV for today's racing. I have a 'magic' box through which i receive betting shop coverage - every single race, live, be it cartoon, flat, jumps, English, Irish, S African, etc, etc.
Had i been stuck with the ITV coverage, i may well have turned the sound down myself.

[Ken4155]

As i indicated earlier, tomorrow's card is a poor one as far as my interests are concerned. First 2 races with less than 8 runners and only 2 handicaps.
Nicky Henderson has won the 2.30 in 2010, 2014, 2019 and 2020 and he saddles 4, two of which tick quite a few trends boxes. The two are Monte Cristo and Craigneiche. As yet, i cannot split the two.
And, in the 4.15, a couple of the stronger stats are saying we need to be on the lookout for an Irish-trained horse, preferably owned by JP MCmAnus. Entoucas ticks both boxes and is a live contender for this race.
I will have to look elsewhere for two more to make up my L15 :-(

[Togo]

Morning all. Having an early start so that I can have a walk before the off. Watch the "workers" on the prom. There has been a lot of work done, the shortened but rebuilt pier is almost finished, they have spent over a week with big tonka trucks and diggers moving hundreds of tons of sand, and a big project is getting underway at Old Colwyn end. Stunning bay now. The racing doesn't somehow grab me today but I have done my duty and had a look. Go for a bit of E/W value in the 8 runner plus races and against the hot pots in the others. If these come in I will be winning the ITV7, Placepot, & Jackpot all on my own. This is my ITV7, Cheltenham Jackpot & Placepot. Little double on the first two at Cheltenham⁕⁕ E/W Acca and E/W Doubles & Trebles**** Good luck if you have a go.

Bravemansgame ⁕ @4/1 1.20Ch.
Malibo 1.45Hunt.
The Big Breakaway⁕ @11/1 1.55Ch
Craigneiche* @13/2 2.30Ch
Greanteen* @66/1 3.05Ch
Some Neck* @10/1 3.40Ch
Ibleo* @8/1 4.15Ch(Extra place)

[Ken4155]

Morning, Togo. From a betting point of view, i think there isn't a great deal on offer, with the first 2 races being of interest only as a viewer.

I did what you did yesterday as regards the 'most tipped' according to Sky. A £1 e.w. acca on; Bob Olinger, Maliboo, Monkfish, Craigneiche, Easyland, Chacun Pour Soi & Sky Pirate. £26 if all place, £4,745 if they all..................yeah, i know :-)

Then, when i actually began selecting the ITV 7, i chose 6 of the above and the only change was Entoucas instead of Sky Pirate. So, another £1 e.w. acca for a poss £18 or £2,728.

Also done; the placepot (2-4-12-1-5-13, £1 e.w. singles on Notebook (33/1) in the 3.05 and Defi Des Carres in the 3.40. A reverse forecast of Entoucas and Embittered in the 4.15 and a £1 Free Bet on Monte Cristo (11/1) in the 2.30.

Main Bet;

1.10 Hunt; Mackie Dee @ 6/1
2.30 Chel; Craigneiche @ 7/1
4.15 Chel; Entoucas @ 7/1

3 x £5 win singles, £1.50 e.w. treble and £1 patent. 3 placed = poss £19, 3 winners = £1,338.

Best of luck to all who dip their toe in :-)

[Togo]

That is unusual. Put Cobden up on Greaneteen after his horse was scratched. Bryony won't be best pleased. Especially if she misses out on prize money.

[Ken4155]

Why do you find it unusual, Togo. Cobden is the stable jockey, Bryony number 2. Seen it happen quite a lot with trainers such as Mullins, Nicholls, Henderson, Johnston and Fahey, to name but a few.

[grumpy01]

The second string jockey usually will lose the ride if the first string is withdrawn.

[Togo]

I meant not something that happens often Ken. Especially at such a big meet and such short notice. Wonder if Bryony would have got him placed and whether the owners were in on the decision? Will keep one eye on that as it unfolds.

[Togo]

Cobden actually rode him on the 3 previous outings.

[Ken4155]

I think she's savvy enough to accept it, Togo. It might even be her turn, one day?

[Ken4155]

He's actually been in the saddle on 9 of it's 11 runs on these shores, Togo. Bryony rode it on the other 2.

[Ken4155]

Really good win by Tiger Roll. Wonder if connections are regretting their decision to withdraw him from the National?

[Ken4155]

No winners but all placed in my Patent, all placed in my e.w. acca of well tipped nags and all placed in my ITV 7 e.w. acca. Just over £70 returned :-)
No interest whatsoever in the last race so i've done 4 at Kempton, tonight; Crystal Pallas Cat, Air Of York, Uzincso and Love Destiny. Just a straight 20p L15 and £1 e.w. acca. £5 on poss £1,931 back.

Not as many short-priced favs running tomorrow, thankfully.

[Ken4155]

Ha, just realised, i had the Placepot up, too; £25.80 :-))

[Togo]

Place money here too Ken Nice treble and 3 doubles and the daft place bet on the ITV7 most popular bet landed me just short of £40 all told. Haha. Wondering why I never did that before with the ITV7.

[Togo]

Little bit of e/w on the 2 Twiston Davies runners at the bottom of the card.