Saturday Punt - Derby Day - 4 June 2022

[Ken4155]

Today's ITV7 kicks off with the 2.00 at Epsom and culminates with the Deby at 4.30 Epsom. In between there are 3 more races from the Surrey track, with one each from Donny and Musselburgh.
The whole racing world will be watching with bated breath to see if our very own Togo can repeat his brilliant achievement of yesterday, and the bookies will be running for cover if his first couple of selections oblige. To say Togo had the 'Midas' touch, yesterday, would almost be an understatement.
Unfortunately, i had the complete opposite - the Sadim' touch, if you like. The only two pieces of good fortune that feel my way were;
My son returned from working down south and i had tried to persuade him to go to Doncaster races last night. He cried off saying he was too tired. He probably saved me £70:-)
On the 'Congratulations Ukraine' thread, i pointed out to Ichkeria that the odds for either of Scotland or Ukraine winning the match and BTTS were quite decent. In my post, i quoted him the 9/2 that Netherlands would do so away in Belgium. Having imparted that bit of knowledge, i found it only right that i should throw a fiver at the bet. Netherlands won 4-1 :-)
Back later with loads and loads of winners:-)))))))))))))))))

[drmorgans]

I had two out of four yesterday, so probably best to take no notice of these:

2.35 Mrs Fitzherbert
3.10 Mutasaabeq
4.30 Changingoftheguard e/w

Desert Crown will probably win the Derby but 2/1 in a 17-horse field is too short for me.

[Ken4155]

Sorry Doc, i forgot to mention that your beacon had also shone quite brightly:-) So there's no reason whatsoever to ignore any of the 3 you have selected.
The thing about this page is that what we put up are not 'tips', they are our selections. We let those so-called experts in the daily rags do the 'tiping'. Anyone following any of us - and i'm sure a few will be taking a closer than usual look at Togo's selections, today at least - do so at their own peril.
I haven't looked at the cards yet, but my sentiments on the Derby are the same as yours; i also believe Stoute's horse will win and that the price is too short for such a large number of runners. However, should the stats point me in a different direction, i may throw a couple of quid that way. Alternatively i may look for a decent e.w. punt just to have an interest in the race.
As per usual, best of luck, doc:-)

[Ken4155]

Just spent 20 mins or so sifting through the stats for the big race and there are a few that tick most boxes. However, i am going against the fav due to the fact it has only 2 runs under it's belt and the stable haven't tasted success in this race since 2010. The O'Brien stable, in total contrast, have farmed this race, winning it 6 times in the last 10 years. And - more often than not -not with their 'fancied' runner.

Changingoftheguard ticks all bar one (price) of the strongest trends boxes so;

£5 free bet (365) Changingoftheguard at 11/1 - boosted bet.

https://www.thestatsdontlie.com/horse-racing/festivals/epsom/derby/

[drmorgans]

On a "betting day", Fridays, Saturdays, and when there's a decent mid-week meeting I tend to have 3 or 4 bets, those three were my selections for today. Certainly not setting myself as a tipster, far too many variables, hence the warning.

[Ken4155]

Fully understood, doc, but there are a few on here who believe our 'selections' to be 'tips', so it's worth pointing out from time to time that they're not:-)

[Togo]

Try again then. You never know do you? Trying to stay busy out in the garden before the rain comes but "She who must be obeyed" sent me in to have a flutter. (^_*) Done the ITV7 as usual and again split the selections into 2 bets. As for the Derby ... I have gone with Appleby and Godolphin and think that team tactics could figure. 365 gave me a free £5 bet at Epsom today despite my win yesterday. I have put that on Nahanni E/W, £2.50 @25/1, despite doing another in my ITV7 bet. **** E/W Acca, Trebles, & Doubles. ⁕⁕⁕ Win Trixie. Good Luck to all.

Oh Herbert Reigns @14/1 2.00Eps*
Roman Mist @14/1 2.35Eps*
Loudspeaker @ 7/1 3.06Don⁕
Mutasaabeq @2/1 3.10Eps⁕
Copper Knight @10/1 3.21 Muss*
Dusky Lord @9/1 3.45 Eps*
Nations Pride @13/2 4.30Eps⁕

[Ken4155]

Knew it was my turn today, chaps. Did a fiver acca on 4 teams from the Orient (or thereabouts - Changchun Yatai, Okayama, Daejeon and Gyeongnam) and all 4 obliged for a £157.46 return:-) I have taken a screen shot of the bet, also a pic on my camera and when i have a minute - and daughter shows me how to do it - i'll post one or t'other on here. I know you guys believe me, but there will be those who think i'm just trying to jump on the winner's bandwagon:-)

I didn't realise just how competitive the Epsom handicaps are and it's taken me over an hour just to select 4 for my usual L15 bet!

2.00 Eps; War Horse @ 15/2 - 5 places
3.45 Eps; Live In The Dream @ 8/1 (BB) - 7 places
5.15 Eps; Soapy Stevens @ 7/1 - 4 places
5.50 Eps; Many A Star @ 13/2 (BB) - 5 places

4 x £2 wins, 20p L15, £1 e.w. acca. 4 placed = £27, 4 winners = £4,547.

ITV7; above 2 qualifiers, plus; Bashkirova, Achnamara, Modern News & Sampers Seven. Taken Modern News out for a £1 e.w. acca.

Gotta sift through the day's other handicaps now. Like Capt Oates, i ma be some time:-)

Best of luck, all.

[Ken4155]

Togo, you say they've given you a free £5 despite yesterday's win. An hour after winning the football bet, they sent me a fiver free bet on tomorrow's men's tennis final:-) Just thrown it at Nadal to win in 5 sets @ 11/2. No other score worth doing, really, unless i was to back against the Spaniard claiming his 14th French Open Championship. And i wouldn't do that with stolen money, let alone a free bet :-))

[Ken4155]

No arguing with that Derby winner. Quite impressive. I do wonder, though, just how much having 'rags' filling the places will devalue the race?

[Togo]

Not so good today but nothing lost. A place treble and 3 place doubles easily paid for my bet.(Copper Knight paid 4 places) Nigh on £30 back.