The Times.

[gulliver1]

The Times reports today, that Brexit could spell the break up of the Con Party. OMG.

[mikey4444]

TTT...we will never know for sure why the small majority voted to leave, or how it changed in the last few days.

We can look at the evidence of the Polls, but I will be the first one to say that Polling evidence is no longer reliable, as the events of June the 8th demonstrates !

[Kromovaracun]

Labour originally had far more profound divisions over Europe when it was lead by Wilson, but even they were as nothing compared to the tensions currently straining at the leash in the Conservatives.

It's looking very likely, though, that there's going to be a coup against May in the autumn, and everybody knows her government will collapse at the first sign of pressure. None of the likely contenders are minded to compromise so I predict that the leadership contest will be a good deal more acrimonious and nasty than the relatively smooth one they were bragging about last year.

That won't destroy the party though. There's every chance they'll win the next election because having torn up the FTPA they'll just be very tactical about when they call it.

[ToraToraTora]

look at this graph mikey (page down):
https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/brexit-vote-explained-poverty-low-skills-and-lack-opportunities?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIjc2cw9ik1QIVxbDtCh0WUQIMEAAYASAAEgL7oPD_BwE
high percentage of low earners, manual workers, uneducated etc had a a large impact, not traditional Tories eh? I'd say Labour voters had a major contribution.

[ichkeria]

The article makes very interesting reading. Reminding us why Europe is such a toxic issue for tories.

[mikey4444]

TTT...that is pure speculation. When we vote in Referendums, as with any vote, the identity of each voter isn't made public.

As for your remarks about uneducated, low-earning manual workers...aren't they exactly the type that voted Tory in 1979 and there after ?

Wasn't it "The Sun wot it"

[ToraToraTora]

I was just reading the graph Mikey.

[mikey4444]

I agree with Kromo....I think that the coup against May will happen this Autumn, when the Party can see what little progress David Davies is making with the negotiating.

There is a growing thought that Brexit may never actually happen.

[mikey4444]

TTT.... that graph is an opinion, not a fact. How does anyone really know how each of us voted ?

I am white but there is nothing on the voting card to say that. I am also semi-retired....again, no mention on the card

[New Judge]

I don't care if Brexit sees the end of the Tory party, the Labour Party or any other party. I had my party on June 24th last year - along with 17m others - and so long as it sees the end of our membership of the EU I couldn't care less what else it sees the end of.

[mikey4444]

NJ....we shall hold you to that !

[ToraToraTora]

read the article mikey they used the area demographics of the voters. Not an opinion statistical evaluation.

[Bazile]

TTT
Do you buy Huggies in bulk on account of all the PMSL you do ?

[mikey4444]

TTT....they still can't know what people voted.

[ToraToraTora]

they know the results in each voting area, they know the make up of that area, they can do arithmetic. Face it mikey Labour voters are undeniably a major contributor to brexit.

[ToraToraTora]

according to the Gruaniad 35% of Labour voted brexit;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/07/research-results-corbyn-labour-voters-soft-brexit
"It is Labour for whom the vote to leave the EU has caused the most acute problems. By a solid majority of 65% to 35%, its 2015 voters backed remain at the referendum. However, the 35% of Labour leave voters are disproportionately the traditional working-class Labour voters the party is struggling to keep hold of."

"It is Labour for whom the vote to leave the EU has caused the most acute problems" - The guardian Mikey not me!

[mikey4444]

TTT...thanks you for confirming the majority of Labour supporters voted to remain !

But, of course, Labour voters were scared by Farage, just as lots of other people were. But many more Tory voters sided with Farage, so please don't blame the Labour Party for the situation that we find ourselves in today.

Can I also remind you that the Official Labour policy was to remain....in exactly the same way as every other serious political party did.

[Kromovaracun]

Bear in mind the Leave vote only passed by 4% though Mikey. 3T's right, it would have been impossible without a significant cohort of Labour voters. Corbyn himself is probably more sympathetic to Brexit than he lets on (remember his "7 out of 10" line).

[ToraToraTora]

Blame the Labour Party mikey? PMSL (pass another nappie Bazille!) I thank the Labour party from the bottom of my heart. Bless every one of the 35% who helped free us from tyranny. As Kromo says without the Labour contingent we'd all still be under Merkel's jack boot.

[ToraToraTora]

"Corbyn himself is probably more sympathetic to Brexit than he lets on (remember his "7 out of 10" line). " - good point kromo, remember at the time Jezza got the blame for Labour not pushing remain hard enough. I think Both Jezza and The PM were reluctant remainers at best.

[New Judge]

“But many more Tory voters sided with Farage, so please don't blame the Labour Party for the situation that we find ourselves in today.”

There’s no need for “blame” to be apportioned on any political party, Mikey. The majority of those who voted put their cross in the “Leave” box. They are the ones who should be thanked rather than blamed because despite the best efforts of all three main parties they chose a different way.

You mention our “situation” as if we are in a parlous or perilous state. Nothing is further from the truth. We have an opportunity to forge a new relationship with the rest of the world (population about twelve times that of the EU) on terms that suit us. We no longer have to worry about the needs and wishes of 27 other very disparate nations, many of whom have no interest in what is best for the UK. How bad can that be, especially bearing in mind that our membership of the EU has not seen us covered with riches beyond our wildest dreams? It’s a situation that, if they told the truth, many other EU nations would relish. Far from being “scared by Farage” I was encouraged to see that my decision (which I took in 1992 when Mr Farage was still working as a City trader) was supported by somebody who knows more about the EU and its pernicious machinations than I ever will.