Why Is Covid-19 Less Survivable In The Uk?

[Gromit]

According to a study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle released yesterday, the UK could be the European country worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic, suffering a death toll over 66,000 by August.
The IHME, which produces the Global Burden of Disease study, believes that deaths in the UK will peak with an estimated 2,932 deaths on 17 April, and predicts 66,314 total deaths in the country by 4 August.
In the EU, Italy, Spain and France are forecast to suffer the highest death tolls, at 20,200, 19,209 and 15,058 respectively by 4 August.

https://ibb.co/pyhxVVb

[Peter Pedant]

// By contrast, the only criticism of the lockdown here is that it came too late for many.//

trump is trying to say that "if only the chinese had told the truth he would have locked down earlier"

but in fact all you have to do is read one sentence of any of NJ refutations of modelling to see why any and every politician said
" I think we will wait and see" (*)

and also incredibly I dont blame them#
if we had locked down Jan 1 2020
would anyone believe Boris if he said - we have saved 20 000 lives and ME - I might have got it and nearly lost my life !

would anyone have believed him
there are times when we have to do the experiment

(*) that was a big thing with Stanley Baldwin innit
waiting and seeing

[fiction-factory]

Hi PP. My post sandwiched between yours might have been missed as we are on a new page now. Do you have a view on the merits of comparing our figures (under lockdown) with Sweden's (no lockdown)?

[Peter Pedant]

// But most significantly the swedes have not closed schools, bars, restaurants or shops. The swedish new infections have not grown anything like ours despite beginning at around the same time //

ph god this is awful - there should be a health warning attacked - you know - 'NJ says altho he passed a levels he presents this as logical thought'

so the consequence is - that if we unlick all our shops and open our schools then we will have an infection rate like swedens ?

oh dear - look out of your ivory tower NJ - life isnt like that

[Peter Pedant]

yes I do FF
directly above !

I am like ze leedol mozzarr - he winced at a loud sound
I wince at lack of logic masquerading as I dont know what - ( auncient wisdom)

[Peter Pedant]

in terms of modelling
if the swedes are spaced out more than us
( fewer swedes, larger area ) then zed naught taken as 2.3 in UK would be less and the slope of the exponential curve at the start would be less

I blush to write exponent on AB

[fiction-factory]

Sorry PP- not ignoring you but now doing something else for tonight. Is Z0 another term for R0?

[Peter Pedant]

oops my bad yes it is "ar nought" and the value is taken as 2.3 in the english population - the inc period is 5 plus/minus 1 day
time to hospital ten d, time to death 20 d - if you are trying this yourself.

and - - - thanks for questioning it as ....
there is an explosion of modelling viddies on You Tube. At start of lock in - there were only two - Oxford and Zhukov.
now
https://www.youxtube.com/watch?v=uSLFudKBnBI
( covid modelled as a standing wave )

https://www.youxtube.com/watch?v=NKMHhm2Zbkw
same fella derives 'the usual' S-I-R equations

https://www.youxtube.com/watch?v=f1a8JYAixXU
bearded wonder expands S-I-R and adds one compartment into a standard S-E=I=R model

and even stochastic modelling - when one of our number said - "foo what dat den?" when I mentioned it last week.
https://www.youxtube.com/watch?v=PsoL8-Q-Grk

anyone using the URLz shd take out the x

[bednobs]

"The IHME, which produces the Global Burden of Disease study, believes that deaths in the UK will peak with an estimated 2,932 deaths on 17 April"
that didnt happen then