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There Are A Chosen Few On Ab That Should Take Nore Of This.........
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nickorwan: //In both world wars most of the country was behind the government, but most of the country didn’t know the true horrors many soldiers were facing. David Lloyd George apparently said to one newspaper editor “If people really knew [the truth], the war would be stopped tomorrow. But of course they don’t know, and can’t know.”.// - yep, good point.
Hmm. I'm more inclined to feel that the Government, naturally, doesn't want to admit that it doesn't really have a plan. I don't see a good reason to keep the exit strategy secret except that it doesn't exist, but I can't say I blame the Government if it doesn't have one (yet) and doesn't want to own up to that.
All a plan can be is monitor, identify priorities for relaxation and set criteria by which they'll be done. Maybe something like
when R0 stabilises below 1 we'll allow certain shops to open and some phased return to school- hopefully by June but dependent but no guarantees.
When it falls to 0.8 (or death rates fall to X per day) we'll allow transport to reopen fully- hopefully by August (say)
when it falls to Y allow pubs to open (but probably not until December)
But if you are too open and raise expectations and deaths start to grow again it may be difficult to reinforce lockdowns
when R0 stabilises below 1 we'll allow certain shops to open and some phased return to school- hopefully by June but dependent but no guarantees.
When it falls to 0.8 (or death rates fall to X per day) we'll allow transport to reopen fully- hopefully by August (say)
when it falls to Y allow pubs to open (but probably not until December)
But if you are too open and raise expectations and deaths start to grow again it may be difficult to reinforce lockdowns
Thanks for the article, danny, although doesn't it say that the Government "are drawing up" a plan, rather than having one already?
Under-reporting of deaths isn't a lie, the Government has been clear about the source of the figures they quote and the motivation for it. The ONS Stats released weekly on Tuesdays provide a truer picture but also make clear why there's a delay. If you're seen them, APG, then compare the columns for "deaths up to April 10th reported by April 10th" and "deaths up to April 10th reported by April 18th" and you'll see a massive jump. Even now some of the hospital deaths we're being told about are from a month back but were, for some reason, only notified recently.
Under-reporting of deaths isn't a lie, the Government has been clear about the source of the figures they quote and the motivation for it. The ONS Stats released weekly on Tuesdays provide a truer picture but also make clear why there's a delay. If you're seen them, APG, then compare the columns for "deaths up to April 10th reported by April 10th" and "deaths up to April 10th reported by April 18th" and you'll see a massive jump. Even now some of the hospital deaths we're being told about are from a month back but were, for some reason, only notified recently.
What those at the head of government fail to realise is that people are getting fed up with the mantra "we're being guided by science blah blah" with no indication of how or when an exit strategy might apply (except the 5 "pillars"). Even the Tory 1922 Committee have had enough of non-information and have suggested that garden centres and DIY stores could open straightaway - just what I said on the site 2-3 days ago.
Danny on the contrary I do not believe this crisis should be Political at all. I would welcome a Coalition effort to deal with the crisis.
We need tests to understand how any people have had the disease, some with very few if any symptoms. Then the scientists can realistically look at the risks to normal fit healthy people with low risk exposure (as opposed to healthcare workers)
We need tests to understand how any people have had the disease, some with very few if any symptoms. Then the scientists can realistically look at the risks to normal fit healthy people with low risk exposure (as opposed to healthcare workers)
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