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Ukraine - Everyone Called It Wrong
Russia thought victory would take 48 hours.
The US largely agreed.
The EU put a lot of effort into diplomacy to avoid a war believing Ukraine would be no match for the Russian Army, and would fall quickly.
And none of those scenarios have played out. The war is now in day 50.
In Russia there is only fake news and conspiracy theories. Truth is lost there. So they can be forgiven for believing a victory would only take a couple of days. Now that fantasy has had sharp slap in the face by reality and truth.
No sure how the US got it so wrong. They too might have been deluding themselves. They chose to believe that Russia was strong and powerful to justify enormous spending on the military. It doesn’t fit the narrative to say Russia is weak, badly run, and are losers.
The EU largely followed the USA’s wrong assessment. What everyone missed was the resolve and courage of the Ukrainian people.
Now that a quick victory has been averted, we in the west should seize the opportunity. Flood Ukraine with weapons no matter the cost. Double down on sanctions ( they are mostly not working, but they are an irritation). Opportunities like this do not come along very often. A defeat would be good for the Russian people. Their paper tiger leader would fall, and they just might get someone better.
The US largely agreed.
The EU put a lot of effort into diplomacy to avoid a war believing Ukraine would be no match for the Russian Army, and would fall quickly.
And none of those scenarios have played out. The war is now in day 50.
In Russia there is only fake news and conspiracy theories. Truth is lost there. So they can be forgiven for believing a victory would only take a couple of days. Now that fantasy has had sharp slap in the face by reality and truth.
No sure how the US got it so wrong. They too might have been deluding themselves. They chose to believe that Russia was strong and powerful to justify enormous spending on the military. It doesn’t fit the narrative to say Russia is weak, badly run, and are losers.
The EU largely followed the USA’s wrong assessment. What everyone missed was the resolve and courage of the Ukrainian people.
Now that a quick victory has been averted, we in the west should seize the opportunity. Flood Ukraine with weapons no matter the cost. Double down on sanctions ( they are mostly not working, but they are an irritation). Opportunities like this do not come along very often. A defeat would be good for the Russian people. Their paper tiger leader would fall, and they just might get someone better.
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I know not what the US thought, nor anyone else for that matter, but I definitely thought that Ukraine had no chance against the Russian bear, just as I also was foolish enough to misread Putin and tried to see things before the invasion from HIS point of view - what a mistake that was!
ichi //Germany in particular should be ashamed.//
That I don't agree with, it isn't as straightforward as you & many observers seem think, & easy to say when you depend only on 3% of your energy supply from Russia.
The root of the problem lies in the short-sighted decision of Angela Merkel to close down Germany's nuclear reactors after the Fukushima disaster & her too comfortable a relationship with Putin.
ichi //Germany in particular should be ashamed.//
That I don't agree with, it isn't as straightforward as you & many observers seem think, & easy to say when you depend only on 3% of your energy supply from Russia.
The root of the problem lies in the short-sighted decision of Angela Merkel to close down Germany's nuclear reactors after the Fukushima disaster & her too comfortable a relationship with Putin.
It still does puzzle me why weapons are not being flooded into Ukraine, unless they are and its just a smoke screen for Russia to think they are short of weapons. The sinking of that ship leads me to believe the Russians thought that they had got a weapon to wipe it out, hence being so close to Ukraine. OR the Russians are really stupid??
The Russian fleet needs ships fairly close to the port to support possible amphibious attack. Many have now scuttled further out to sea.
In any case however the Neptune missile has I believe a range roughly three times that of Moskva's distance from probably launch point.
So probably complacency.
As for weapons supply a lot goes on we don't or didn't know about. For example it transpires that Czechia has been sending in massive artillery guns for weeks now.
In any case however the Neptune missile has I believe a range roughly three times that of Moskva's distance from probably launch point.
So probably complacency.
As for weapons supply a lot goes on we don't or didn't know about. For example it transpires that Czechia has been sending in massive artillery guns for weeks now.
The new R-360 Neptune cruise missile is Ukrainian designed and built. It has a range of 190 miles. Now battle proven.
Russia are bombing the probably empty factory, the missiles will have be moved weeks ago.
This is the second ship they have taken out, and they are probably targeting many others.
Not as one sided as it first appeared.
Russia are bombing the probably empty factory, the missiles will have be moved weeks ago.
This is the second ship they have taken out, and they are probably targeting many others.
Not as one sided as it first appeared.
Someone who called it right - with astonishing accuracy - was Garry Karparov.
In his book Winter Is Coming, he predicts exactly what Putin will do in Ukraine, if the West fails to take a whole load of actions. He includes everything that the Western leaders are now doing (and acting as if they have just thought of them) ... including control of the oligarchs, reducing reliance on Russian gas and oil, using the immense economic power of the EU to exert financial controls over the Russian economy, etc, etc.
And he highlights the steps that the West needed to take (but didn't) in order to deter Russia from entering Ukraine.
And he wrote this in 2015.
Any leaders who claim that Putin's action came as a surprise, just hadn't read Kasparov's book.
And why should they have paid attention to Kasparov?
Because he established the Other Russia coalition, that stood in opposition to the Putin government, and he entered the Russian presidential race in 2007, after actively publicising what he (correctly) viewed to be Putin's long term intentions for Russia and the former USSR independent states.
#justsaying
In his book Winter Is Coming, he predicts exactly what Putin will do in Ukraine, if the West fails to take a whole load of actions. He includes everything that the Western leaders are now doing (and acting as if they have just thought of them) ... including control of the oligarchs, reducing reliance on Russian gas and oil, using the immense economic power of the EU to exert financial controls over the Russian economy, etc, etc.
And he highlights the steps that the West needed to take (but didn't) in order to deter Russia from entering Ukraine.
And he wrote this in 2015.
Any leaders who claim that Putin's action came as a surprise, just hadn't read Kasparov's book.
And why should they have paid attention to Kasparov?
Because he established the Other Russia coalition, that stood in opposition to the Putin government, and he entered the Russian presidential race in 2007, after actively publicising what he (correctly) viewed to be Putin's long term intentions for Russia and the former USSR independent states.
#justsaying
I have enormous respect for Vlodymyr Zelensky. How he was elevated to this awesome role having no preparation for what he is now faced with. Watching "Servant of the People" which he produced and starred in a few years before 'life imitating art' led to his election to the most unenviable role he is having to play out for real.
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