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What Happens If Russia Wins?
richard kemp in the telegraph argues that ukraine has six months left... he says this is because ukraine has suffered losses which are too serious to overcome and because the recent western aid package has come too late principally because of resistance to it in the USA.
let's assume he's right... what happens if russia wins?
it would be a defeat to biden for sure... can we imagine trump and putin carving up eastern europe in a couple of years time?
was it a mistake to focus on unconditional victory?
what kind of fate will befall the ukranian people?
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one could argue from a very cynical point of view that the USA has done very well indeed out of this war.
NATO's purpose has been revived when it was wayward a few years ago
huge boost in weapons sales in europe
russia has suffered catastrophic losses both human and material and if they occupy ukraine will struggle for years to hold it.
in the dark corridors of power one can imagine people in the state department feeling quite pleased about this situation.
I can't read this (Corby?) but given it starts with the largely factually inaccurate "It looks like, as in previous wars, Russia will have begun badly but finished well through sheer determination" I don't think it is worth debating too seriously.
However, the answer to your question is that if Russia eventually managed to prevail in Ukraine it would spell a very bleak future for Europe and for what is often called "the international rules-based order"
Which is why it won't be allowed to happen. Your remarks about Nato and the US are ridiculous. Nato 's purpose is to defend countries against aggression, mainly from Russia. Which is why countries have queued up to join it. So it's "good for business" in the way fires, car crashes and crime are good for the police and the emergency services.
The military-industrial complex is, of course, a figment of the imagination. Armaments are created from unicorn poop, free of charge with no profits involved.
A rolling line of credit for odds and ends with the certainty that we'll all remain the best of friends ever after completes the picture.
Apparently
Although this was was never about Russia's fear of NATO despite the claims of some, one offshoot of it has been to encourage two of Europe's foremost military powers in Finland and Sweden to join. Finland with its huge army and Sweden with its interesting conscription system. When you turn 19 in Sweden you get a letter and a medical form to fill in. But only the top so many hundred thousand or so are chosen and possibly as a result remarkably few drop out.
Russia's lost getting on for half a million dead or dead and wounded capturing less than 20 percent of Ukrainian territory and no further major cities in over two years. Even during the dark period of the last few months when Ukraine has been running low on ammo, they have been advancing at a snails pace and continuing to lose upwards of 1000 personnel a day. So the idea they only need another 6 months to finish the job seems fanciful.
"I can read Untitled's link, Ichkeria; try again"
Yes thanks not sure why I couldn't before. It doesn't amount to much - a short piece basically summarising what we already know and no evidence provided that I can see for "six months".
In fact I'd take issue with the idea that further Russian successes would mean less aid - almost certainly the opposite. I think to their shame Ukraine's allies balked at the prospect of Russia's defeat. But it's the prospect of her defeat which has caused a rethink. And now there must be no turning away.The air supremacy thing really amounts to the unchallenged use of glide bombs along the front line to clear Ukraine's defence positions. With the prospect of NATO standard fighter planes arriving this summer (at last) that advantage will lessen as will the missile threat as air defence systems are belatedly upgraded. The big issue is manpower but with better recruitment and training there's every prospect that Ukraine will still prevail in the long run. During which time it will beef up its own military industrial capability and eventually smarter will beat harder
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