dvd's

[chin85]

How long do you think it will take for DVD's to become overtaken by another format, like the DVD has done to VHS.

[KebabMeister]

VHS/Betamax became popular at the beginning of the 80s.  VHS soon outsold Betamax and the latter became defunct.  DVDs started getting popular late 90s/early 00s, so using that as a basis, say in 20 years time DVDs will be replaced by something else?

[OBonio]

There is already technology out there that supersedes current DVD technology.  The likes of Sky+, TiVo etc save to a hard drive which has much more capacity and flexibility than a DVD, it looks like the future is already here.  Also, there's something called Blu-Ray which, whilst not in the mainstream yet, will very easily replace current DVD technology (though it is backwardly compatible, apparently).

[QmunkE]

Solid state saving, whilst more flexible for single users recording from another source, is somewhat inconvenient when you want to hire a film, or buy one from a shop.

Unlike VHS, DVD can be improved in terms of compression methods etc, and so is constantly evolving.

[stevie21]

China don't want to pay royalties for subscribing to the DVD format so already have a slightly different alternative.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/02/25/china_chooses_ev d/
I'm sure that they're very similar to DVDs rather than a completely new format altogether.

[Tweed]

Looks like Blu-Ray, as OBonio says, will be the next thing. Similar to DVD, but uses a laser of different wavelength (which is blue), and produces a much finer beam than that used for DVD. This will enable more data on the same size disc.

[OBonio]

The point I was making about Sky+ et al being more flexible still applies when hiring/buying movies.  When UltraWideBand becomes the norm, I can see there being a true video on demand market.  Give it 10 years, you'll see.