ChatterBank1 min ago
Bad weather forecasting and Climate Change
After the Barbeque Summer that never was, the Met Office was forecasting as late as 29th November that we would have a Mild Winter.
//The Met Office forecast on Friday there was a 50 percent chance of a warmer winter than average this year for northern Europe, including Britain. The Met Office said there was only a 20 percent chance of a colder winter.//
http://uk.reuters.com...idUKTRE5AQ1JW20091127
How can we believe their 10 year and 50 year climate change forecasts, when the same people consistently get such short range forecasts so lamentably wrong?
//The Met Office forecast on Friday there was a 50 percent chance of a warmer winter than average this year for northern Europe, including Britain. The Met Office said there was only a 20 percent chance of a colder winter.//
http://uk.reuters.com...idUKTRE5AQ1JW20091127
How can we believe their 10 year and 50 year climate change forecasts, when the same people consistently get such short range forecasts so lamentably wrong?
Answers
Best Answer
No best answer has yet been selected by Gromit. Once a best answer has been selected, it will be shown here.
For more on marking an answer as the "Best Answer", please visit our FAQ.I gather we're particularly susceptible to quick changes in weather, having ocean on one side, continental land mass on the other (with nothing much this side of the Urals), the Arctic to the north and, um, Querqueville to the south. So there's not much point ever expecting forecasts to be be accurate... which does make you wonder why the Met Office bothers. Shouldn't they just busy themselves making omelettes with the eggs on their faces?
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I tend to use this which has never let me down so far:
http://i25.tinypic.com/118my4m.jpg
http://i25.tinypic.com/118my4m.jpg
jno
They got the forecast for winter wrong last year as well. They predicted a warmer winter and it was colder...
Forecast
http://www.metoffice....r2008_9/forecast.html
Actual
http://www.metoffice....e/uk/2009/winter.html
They got the forecast for winter wrong last year as well. They predicted a warmer winter and it was colder...
Forecast
http://www.metoffice....r2008_9/forecast.html
Actual
http://www.metoffice....e/uk/2009/winter.html
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I really don't know why they bother trying to make these long term forecasts. It's just asking for trouble. You can predict the next few days by looking at what's coming in from the Atlantic, (either heavy rain or light rain) but anything after that is pretty much guesswork. Honestly, who gives a sh1t anyway?. We were only dissappointed that we didn't get a 'barbecue' summer because they told us we were going to get one.
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