If I was an MP, why would I feel obliged to vote the way the whip tells me? Would they actually be able to do anything to me? ie reduce my pay or something?
They'd make the 'greasy-pole of politics' even more greasy for you to try to climb up.....you'd remain a faceless back-bencher with no perks, i.e. getting to chair various committees, report groups......or jollies overseas.
Ignoring a three-line whip can result in the offending MP being expelled from the party and being forced to sit as an independent until / unless the whip is restored. Of course, that would mean that they would be consigned to the wilderness and play no further part in their party's business - effectively, political suicide in terms of their future career...
And any chances of a ministerial job would go straight out of the window. So, whatever we may be told, there's precious little actual democracy in British politics. They're all too scared.
2 ministerial aides will probably lose their job for joining the rebellion. Didn't one of the guys near to end of the debate praise David Cameron for encouraging MPs to vote independently? I don't when Cameron did this but it wasn't want he wanted from his backbenchers tonight