New Electoral Calculus Website Update, For Sqad, And Others !

[mikey4444]

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

The predicted majority of 42 seats is up from 30 at the end of September, and a probability of a Labour majority of 63%, up from a previous 57%.

I know I keep saying this but if dave is set to make a sudden surge, he is leaving it rather late.

Note still no seats expected for UKIP. The lower percentage that the Tories get, the more chance of UKIP seats. But see this link for the reasons that UKIP have an uphill struggle to get any seats at all :::

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_UKIP.html

[VHG]

We have got two bye elections before the general election so lets see how those go before writing off UKIP.

The more the other parties keep describing UKIP as loonies the more scared the other parties must be, and the more likely people are to vote UKIP to try to bring the "old guard" parties down a peg or two.

Tory/Lib/Lab have had it too cosy for years, it is about time someone put a rocket up their backsides.

[jim360]

Personally I'd be surprised at an outright Labour win -- or at least, at the moment their best chance seems to be a win based on an anti-Tory rather than pro-Labour vote. Long way to go yet, but I don't think Ed Miliband is leading an electable party currently.

[jourdain2]

I've gathered that you are very keen on statistics, mikey, but honestly no-one can know how minds work when alone in the voting booth. Think of 1945. At the moment I think that it is all to play for - and then there are 'Events, dear boy, events!' (to quote Mac.) It should all be very interesting. I only hope that I shall be back in UK and registered to vote by then. I am on a trip home on Tuesday to house-hunt in East Yorkshire and see family - bliss! I won't have computer access for a week of course.

[mikey4444]

Jim...all the evidence points to a Labour victory at this stage of the proceedings. Lord Ashcroft and all the Pollsters and the Bookies agree. But it doesn't really matter what you and I think. dave can see the writing on the wall, which is why he has tried to bribe the better off this week with his promises of tax cuts in the Tory Conference.

But it isn't the better off that he needs to convince...they always vote Tory anyway. Its the floating voter and I'm not sure his promised bribe has worked.

He is likely to lose at least the Clacton by-election, if not the other one as well.

Where will he hide then ?

[grumpy01]

Mikey a lot of what you say is true,pollsters and other experts predicting at this stage a labour majority come next May.However what worries me and countless others is what will happen with Ed Milliband at the helm and God help us that clown Ed Balls at the treasury.I wonder if next May we shall have anothe Kinnochio situation ,snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

[anotheoldgit]

mikey4444

Seems you have distanced yourself from your usual YouGov source, this couldn't be the reason could it?

/// Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 3rd Oct - Con 36%, Lab 34%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%; ///

http://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/politics/