Labour Still Ahead In The Polls

[mikey4444]

We probably only have 22-23 months left before the 2015 General Election, so when is Cameron going to make his break for the front of the pack ?

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/pdc1opqf1w/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-240513.pdf

[Sqad]

mikey........don't tell us what we already know:
Tories will lose the election if it is today...on the results of the Poll.
But the Election, isn't today.

[doctordb]

Two years is a long time.

[emmie]

two minutes is a long time, if you only have one to go

[mikey4444]

No it isn't but how are they going to make up this gap in the next few months ? They have been behind in the polls for nearly 2 years. I was just wondering if Cameron was going to leave until the last minute, just like Mo Farah !

[Sqad]

mikey......could be! could be! after all a term of office is "long distance" NOT a sprint............;-)

Things are looking bad for the Tories.......you are correct.........

Why have they only got "these next few months" to make up the gap?

[emmie]

the answer is they haven't, but i am not sure unless Cameron does something remarkable, and he hasn't so far, he will win the next election.

[doctordb]

One thing that will help the Tories is that as the election approaches ed milliband will have to speak.

[mikey4444]

Sqad...thought it was obvious. If Cameron is to have any chance of winning the next Election outright, he can hardly be happy with being so far behind the only other party that has a chance. The date is very early May 2015, so they will probably start campaigning properly about end of March 2015. They coalition can hardly be ongoing up until to the day before the Election, so he will have the Libs and BNP-lite to fight against, not just Labour.

Em has it nearly right...he needs something remarkable to happen, very quickly, if he is to have any realistic chance. Not sure what remarkable thing he can have up his sleeve, if he has anything at all. There are more savage cuts on the way according to the Chancellor on Radio 4 this morning, so he can't bribe us. Perhaps he will step sideways and let Boris try to stoke up the troops in time.

Em..is there a "not" missing from your final line...typo I expect !

[Sqad]

mikey......i can't keep repeating myself.......I agree with you........;-)

[doctordb]

Mikey, em's 'not' appears earlier in the sentence. :)

[ludwig]

// One thing that will help the Tories is that as the election approaches ed milliband will have to speak. //

I also predict a Tory resurgence as Ed Balls becomes more visible.

[askyourgran]

My newspaper has a by-line of 'Ukip on course for the Polls'. Nigel Farange is on course for further success in next year's European elections. A survey found that 27% of those certain to vote in the 2014 election would support Ukip, with Labour at 23% and the Tories at 21%. This could be a taster as to how the General Election would pan out in 2015. No wonder Dave Cameron in wooing Ukip to join them in the next election, but Farange is not easily swayed he said he wouldn't if Cameron was still leader. I find it hard to believe that anyone could vote for Eds Minibrain and Balls.

[emmie]

probably but i can't see it...

[doctordb]

Ed balls. An attack dog with no teeth and a constant whine.

[Sqad]

The economy had been sliding into recession during the final months of Thatcher's spell in power, and the recession deepened during 1991 and continued until the end of 1992.

It could only be a Labour victory at the forthcoming election.

Who won?.........John Major..Conservative.

[jake-the-peg]

Yes Sqad - with a massively reduced majority - he lost 40 seats

If Cameron loses 40 seats he'll still be inopposition

That's the difference Major had a fat cushion

Only the Scottish referendum coming up 'Yes' can save him and that looks even less likely!

[mikey4444]

doctordb...you are right, of course...my apologies to em. Its just that the last sentence read so wrong !

[Sqad]

JTP......I picked my sound bite to illustrate the saying....."Don't count your ...well you know the rest."

I keep agreeing with the Labour Aber's comments, but they keep grinding on and on.....so YES the Tories do look like losing the next election.

What MAY help? an upturn in the economy and "no" at this moment it doesn't look likely.

[jake-the-peg]

There are a couple of problems DC faces, yes there's the economy and UKIP dragging votes but ironically Nick Cleggs nosediving poulatity is another.

Lib Dems are deserting in droves and most are not going to vote Tory - they're going to vote Labour.

If DC could somehow get Clegg to stand aside and fill his shoes with someone more popular with Lib Dems like Cable perhaps then they might start to split the Labour vote more and he might have a shot.

Don't see much sign of Clegg doing that right now and I can't quite see what DC might offer him to get him to do so - a seat in the Lords isn't much incentive when the Liberals want to do away with appointed peers - but you never know - If I was DC I'd be looking at the list of appointments to see if there's anything that might tempt Cleggy to fall on his sword

[Bazile]

JTP

Cameron could create a post of imigration integration minister , for Clegg