Should We Have A Eu Referendum Now , Not In 2017 ?

[modeller]

In view of the EU results should Cameron have a referendum ASP not wait another 3 years , when if Labour gets elected we wont ( at the moment ) even get the chance.

[rockyracoon]

I would imagine Cameron is praying that the promise of a referendum will get the Tories re elected, he'd be mad to hold one now.

[ToraToraTora]

Yes but don't hold your breath!

[jim360]

Now? Even if you want a referendum "now", now would presumably mean in about six months or something. Now (or rather, then) is not the time to have a referendum. Firstly, because the future of the UK itself is in doubt, with the impending Scottish referendum on independence. Secondly, because that would place a referendum very close to the General Election next May. Thirdly, because there is still the potential that some real and meaningful negotiations will take place before the intended referendum date that change the picture.

Imagine the chaos if at around the same time the UK left the EU and at the same time broke up. It would surely be hideous for all parties concerned, as presumably Scotland's hopes for an Independent future within the EU would be destroyed, our own efforts to maintain two separate negotiations would be a major distraction from everything else the government has to do, etc. etc. I think most people should see that a snap referendum would have no winners in practice. Those in the "no to the EU" camp might lose doubly, not just the vote, but also the chance to have any say for a generation and the chance to force the government into (at least trying to) changing our relationship with the EU. Even if the "no" camp wins the vote it might be a Pyrrhic victory for the reasons described above and more. Since it also seems as if Scotland is generally more pro-EU, a referendum to leave it might just push the scales in favour of their own independence, so those in the "yes camp" might win only to see it being too late to save the UK. And for that matter imagine the horror if Scotland were still able to vote in a referendum to leave the EU shortly after they'd voted to leave the UK.

It's asking for political and economic chaos to rush into a referendum now. Instead we should just hope that the Conservatives finally honour their pledge to hold a referendum, and that Labour make a similar pledge and keep it, so that we can have a vote in 2017. Before then, there would be time to at least try to renegotiate our terms of membership. Successful or not, surely it's an attempt worth making before deciding to leave. Usually people at least try to save a broken relationship before suing for divorce.

[Old_Geezer]

Never mind now. I want one in 1962, 1966 and 1972 please .

[modeller]

jim I accept your answers but must point out he has had 4 years to negotiate and to find out what the chances are of getting an EU that would be advantageous for the UK . Most of us know/believe that the best we can hope for, are a few minor concessions , even with the new membership distribution. The EU tentacles are too firmly attached .
What we want and need is just not achievable . Cameron knows that and just wants to put off making any decisions about our membership for as long as possible.
Even if we voted in 2017 to leave the EU, there would still be years of negotiation before that would actually happen, if ever.

[jim360]

Well in that case, why the rush? If it's going to take years from voting to leave to actually leaving, then you don't gain all that much by holding a vote now, and potentially lose everything.

[modeller]

Good point jim except that a early referendum now would strengthen his hand enormously when dealing with the EU,. It would also show all the UK parties the true strength of public opinion.