Electoralcalculus Updated

[mikey4444]

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Labour was 42% probability of winning...now 44%. Conservatives still only on
8% chance of winning.

Electoralcalculus now predict the chances of a colalition with the Nats for the first time. Notice that UKIP are still not predicted to have any seats or influence.

[buildersmate]

Dream on, Mikey.
Not worth bothering to take any notice of this stuff until the end of March.
Wasn't it Harold Wilson who famously said a week is a long time in politics?

[Sqad]

An "all out " Labour victory and no seats for UK.

I would suggest that someone looks into the mechanism and interpretation of our now, much quoted, electoralcalculus.

[Sqad]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Yesterday.........all square......Conservatives and Labour.

[mikey4444]

Sqad...it doesn't predict an "all out" victory at all. It says that Labour have a probability of an outright majority of 44%, but only 8% for the Tories. It is the comparison between the two that I find interesting. No where can I can find any Polling organisation saying that there is a probability of the Tories winning a majority next May, and its been like that for over 3 years.

BM...you are right ....Wilson may have said those words, although there is considerable doubt if he did or not ::

http://oupacademic.tumblr.com/post/66321507640/misquotation-a-week-is-a-long-time-in

But I agree...its 4 and a bit months until the next election, and Labour might not still in the lead. But they could just as easily be even more in the lead than they are now !

[Sqad]

\\ It says that Labour have a probability of an outright majority of 44%, \\

mikey ..can you explain to a simpleton what is the difference between an "all out majority" and an "all out victory?"

[mikey4444]

Sqad...your link above gives them all square, as you say.

But it goes further, and says that there could be a 10 seat majority for Labour. Its seats prediction is even better for Labour and worse for the Tories than the electoralcalculus update ! ! ! Here it is :::

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ukpr-projection-2

So, better news for Labour but even worse news for dave.

[jim360]

No seats for UKIP despite having twice as many votes as the LibDems? Our electoral system sucks.

[Sqad]

mikey...no! no! no!

Answer my question:

\\.can you explain to a simpleton what is the difference between an "all out majority" and an "all out victory?"\\

[mikey4444]

You didn't get to where are by being a simpleton, now did you Sqad ?

They don't let simpletons loose with sharp knives, or if they do, they are called Slaughtermen !

Show me where the good news is for the Tory Party in the electoralcalculus link ?

[anotheoldgit]

Different tale here

http://electionforecast.co.uk/

And here

http://electionsetc.com/

[Sqad]

\\\\\Show me where the good news is for the Tory Party in the electoralcalculus link ?\\\\\

I didn't say there was......

Now for the third time answer the question that I pose that you actually said

"\\.can you explain to a simpleton what is the difference between an "all out majority" and an "all out victory?"\\

Just say that you can't explain it , if you can't.

[anotheoldgit]

mikey4444

/// You didn't get to where are by being a simpleton, now did you Sqad ? ///

Stop the buttering-up and answer sqad's question.

[mikey4444]

There is no difference Sqad, but EC are not predicting that Labour have a 100% chance of an overall, outright majority, just a 44% chance.

We may be crossing in the post here. We both know that that it will either be
Labour or the Tories in number Ten next May. It can't be anyone else, and on the strength of it, there appears to a much greater probability of it being Labour, then any other political Party. If its going to be dave again, he has a lot of ground to make up between now and next May.

[mikey4444]

I think I have now explained it Sqad......I am not sure that I can make it any clearer.

[Sqad]

mikey.........;-)

[Gromit]

Not sure I agree with their methodology, but they are predicting 44% probability of a Labour majority and only a 8% probability of a Conservative majority.

[mikey4444]

Sqad...it seems we may have fallen out over this issue, which was not my intention. I am merely pointing out that there is no good news for the Tories whatsoever in the latest update from EC, which you quite rightly appreciate. So we would appear to as one on that.

What I want is for a Tory or UKIP supporter to show me where the good news for dave or Nigel is, if they can find some

[Sqad]

No mikey........you are mistaken....we have not fallen out.

[mikey4444]

Gromit...you have it in a nutshell ! It was 42% for Labour at the beginning of this month.

[mikey4444]

Of that I am mighty glad Sqad !