Could We Now Be Seeing, The Possibility Of A President Trump Of The United States Of America?

[anotheoldgit]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35647126

[Ellipsis]

In very simple terms, I see Clinton vs Trump like this ...

Draw a horizontal line (x axis) and label one end "far left" and the other end "far right".

Plot the positions of Clinton (centre left) and Trump (quite far right) on this axis.

Add a y axis, and label it "Population". Draw the curve of population from far left to far right. (A bit tricky, but remember the incumbent is centre left).

Draw a vertical line half way between Clinton and Trump.

All the population (the area under the curve) to the left of that line is Clinton's. All the population (the area under the curve) to the right of that line is Trump's.

As I see it, Clinton wins. Obviously if it's a close thing then other factors come into play, e.g. propensity of various voter segments to turn out. But it isn't even close, is it? Clinton is too central, and Trump is too far out ...

[trt]

It wouldn't surprise me if it got close to Trump winning the election, there would be an attempt on his life, either from the Mexican Mafia or ISA.

[jim360]

It would be nice to think of it as that simple, Ellipsis (and it may very well be in the end exactly that!), but the complicating factor is that Trump has had the ability to attract at least some people to his cause, seemingly changing the shape of that bell curve. Or at least giving a good impression of being able to do this. Possibly that's because voter turnout in the US is even worse than in the UK, so he's been able to tap into the "shadow curve" of people who have always been fairly extremist in their political stance but never seen anyone they think worth voting for.

In the meantime, there's a sense that Clinton's winning almost by default, rather than because she's good at engaging support.

[Ellipsis]

The question is, Jim, if Trump was running then which extreme would be more mobilised to vote: the left or the right? It works both ways .... I think turnout would be high on both the left and the right.

[Svejk]

I think people in America, and Britain, have had enough of the status quo which for 30 years has seen the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Hence the rise of 'outsiders' like Trump & Corbyn. (and Farage. (dons helmet))

[jim360]

Yes, that's also possible -- I think the same sort of effect happened in the Scotland Independence Referendum for example.

[ladyalex]

With all his promises to 'kick ISIS butt' I would think that the American Armed Forces would be quite worried.
It's a bit of a big ask for them.

[Cloverjo]

I hope you're right, svelk, but sadly I don't think you are. I can't see the Conservatives out of office next time round.
I really don't know how American people can think Trump would be a good president.

[needawin]

Couldn't be worse than George Bush!

[naomi24]

//Could We Now Be Seeing, The Possibility Of A President Trump Of The United States Of America?//

Yes, we could.

[ichkeria]

The problem is that when people turn to extremes they usually make poor choices. Trump is a businessman not a politician. Generally speaking you need politicians to do politics properly Need a fuse mending? Get an electrician? Need a tooth out? Find a dentist. Need someone to run the country properly? Oops, well, then all that common sense goes out the window, at least in theory
Vaclav Havel was quite a good president I suppose , though a bit different to Trump, who would also have to become a politician if elected, which I suspect would lead to his supporters being disappointed and everyone else being appalled

[agchristie]

If Trump does become President what will become of the 'special relationship' between the UK and USA?

Food for thought....

[anotheoldgit]

agchristie

All depends on who replaces Cameron.

[melv16]

I would urge anyone who thinks Trump is presidential material to watch a documentary called You've been Trumped. It tells the story of his company that bought a golf course on the east coast of Scotland. I guarantee you'll be shocked.
I'd be grateful if someone could put a link of the above documentary.

[naomi24]

ag, //If Trump does become President what will become of the 'special relationship' between the UK and USA?

Food for thought.... //

Good thinking. Not so long ago politicians were discussing banning him from the UK!

[joggerjayne]

I'm in the ABC camp ...

Anybody But Clinton

[Ellipsis]

> I'd be grateful if someone could put a link of the above documentary.

The full thing (95 mins) is not available online but this trailer gives the flavour ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjAIKgOOc8A

[ToraToraTora]

I hope so, poor mikey will have to be sedated though.

[Peter Pedant]

AOG - use of american flag

http://blog.collinsflags.com/flag-etiquette/can-wear-american-flag-clothing

apparently the photie is of Olympic sportwear

and it is a code and not a law
( altho I clearly remember being told it was unlawful in 1964 )

[Jackdaw33]

We should have a clearer picture after next (Super) Tuesday.