The Big Eu Reality Check.....on Tv Last Night....

[ToraToraTora]

Nick Robinson, started by telling us that no politicians were on the show and it would indeed be a reality check, impartial in every way. He then unloaded half and hour of pro EU propaganda! PMSL!

[Old_Geezer]

Pretty much all of Monday's show was stressing the illusion of economic disaster being true and very little weight given to the the advantages of leaving.

May well be on catch up if you want specifics.

[EDDIE51]

Naomi, it was conservative majority but with 10 to 30 UKIP seats included to make a coalition. Did not predict a conservative outright majority.

[naomi24]

Ellipsis, Thank you. I read it and according to that //In a 2005 interview with David Rowan, the UK editor of Wired News, he insisted "that his involvement [with the Conservatives] ceased twenty years ago".

Actually, when people accused the BBC of bias I took it with a pinch of salt – until I watched a report from him on the General Election. He was biased.

[Gromit]

// If the published polls are right, why does every poll on AB show a big majority for leave? //

Because AB is not representative of the General Public. It is predominantly old people with nothing better to do than to moan about everything.

[naomi24]

Eddie, it predicted a Labour fail.

[naomi24]

Gromit, //Because AB is not representative of the General Public.//

I don't think you can be sure of that. It was in the last election.

[ladybirder]

Gromit // It is predominantly old people with nothing better to do than to moan about everything. \\

Shucks you're such a sweet talker.

[naomi24]

Not to worry, Ladybirder. He's just moaning. ;o)

[jim360]

Based on this poll, it wasn't:

http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/News/Question1418207.html

Over-represented Conservatives by three points; under-represented Labour by five points; Over-represented UKIP by four points.

Indeed, based on AB's polling results above the make-up of the UK parliament would be roughly made up of 40 more Conservative and 40 fewer Labour seats than is actually the case.

AB is far further to the right than the country as a whole is, and therefore isn't representative.

[Gromit]

Naomi,

The National polls were much nearer the voting result than the AB poll.

The National polls predicted the Conservative Party with most seats, but not a majority. The AB Poll had a huge Tory majority, 40% compared with 25% for Labour. The actual result was a small majority for the Conservatives.

http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/News/Question1418207.html

// I don't think you can be sure of that. //

81% of AB users are over 50, while less than 2% are under 30. We are told that young people are Remainers, so an AB poll on EU will be heavily skewed in favour of brexit because there are hardly any young people here.

http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/AB-Editors-Blog/Question977301-4.html

[Svejk]

Luckily, all young people are lazy and delicate.
So even if they manage to wake up in time to vote, they won't bother if it's raining tomorrow.

[naomi24]

Gromit, if memory serves – and we were bludgeoned almost daily on here with ecstatic reports of Labour’s popularity - the majority of the polls in the run up to the election consistently showed a probable Labour victory. Shock horror on the day!! They were wrong.

For the record – again – I think the ‘Remainers’ will succeed.

//81% of AB users are over 50, while less than 2% are under 30.//

How do you know that?

[jim360]

It was based on the poll Gromit cited, with the caveats that a) it's a five-year-old poll and b) not everyone who uses or used AB responded. All the same, the signs are that AB as a community is older on average, rather more right-wing on average, and more in favour of leaving the EU, than the UK as a whole.

[Khandro]

svejk; By the way, what is the UK weather forecast for tomorrow?

[jim360]

Cloudy, sunny spells, unsettled with high chance of rain in the south-east in particular.

[naomi24]

Jim, I know what it was based on, but as you say not everyone who uses or used AB responded so I don't think we can assume that those figures are entirely accurate.

[Zacs-Master]

I think what Jim is saying is....even if all ABers responded it wouldn't be a representative view of the nations feelings.

[naomi24]

But what I'm saying is in the run up to the last General Election it was representative of the nation's feelings. The polls here predicted a Conservative victory.

[jim360]

Since it was an opt-in poll, perhaps it does bias things somewhat. All the same, the conclusion has to be that the active AB community (ie the ones that spend their time answering such polls in the first place, as well as those who hang out in the News discussion section) is made up mostly of slightly older, slight more right-wing people on average. I don't think it's totally accurate of course, but it's hard to get a better indicator of how AB members are distributed by age and politics.

the results of tomorrow's referendum could well be another indicator of the divide between AB and the UK at large. Even if it does go in favour of Leave, I highly doubt anyone here seriously believes that it would be 70-30 or so to Leave...

[jim360]

And again, Naomi, if you looked at the results AB predicted a Conservative landslide, not just a victory. Generally speaking the official polls ended up underestimating Tory support (or, more preciesely, overestimating Labour support), but AB ended up overestimating it rather a lot more. That's not representative either.