The Big Eu Reality Check.....on Tv Last Night....

[ToraToraTora]

Nick Robinson, started by telling us that no politicians were on the show and it would indeed be a reality check, impartial in every way. He then unloaded half and hour of pro EU propaganda! PMSL!

[naomi24]

Jim, I don't understand your reference to "ANOTHER indicator of the divide between AB and the UK at large". Where are the rest?

[Zacs-Master]

Jim, this poll didn't predict a Con Landslide:
http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/News/Question1409101.html

[jim360]

ZM: That was a polling asking what people expected the result to be, which is a different measure from asking what people were going to vote. Based on the one I cited, ie "which party are you voting for?", the Tory party scored over 40% compared to Labour's ~26%, which have given the Tory party a majority of around 90-100 compared to the actual majority of 12. That is a landslide in my book, or at least a pretty thumping win.

Naomi -- same answer. Again, for sure these polls come with some element of uncertainty, particularly as they are opt-in, but nevertheless the opt-in members of AB appear rather further to the right than the country on most occasions they are asked. Why is this so difficult to accept?

[Svejk]

From Zac's link;
mikey4444
///Ladybirder....I shall try to be magnanimous in my triumph !///

Snigger, snort!

[naomi24]

jim, The simple fact is that in the last General Election contributors to AB got it right - and the polls got it wrong. Why is that so difficult to accept?

[naomi24]

Svejk, haha! He's entertaining at least. ;o)

[jim360]

Like I said, they didn't get it right though. AB got the Conservatives on the right side of 325 MPs, but little else...

[fiction-factory]

Naomi- Nick Robinson was a Tory at University and after reading his book I am sure he still is on the whole, so it's interesting that you perceived a clear Labour bias from him in the 2015 election

[naomi24]

fiction-factory, he said his involvement with the Conservatives ended years ago - but if you're sure it didn't I suppose you must be right. I had no problem with Nick Robinson, I've always been a defender of the BBC, and I don't spin or grind axes. I simply say it as I see it. I saw his report and it was biased.

[naomi24]

jim, I'm not sure what else you expected them to get right. As far as I remember they were asked who would win the election - and they came up with the right answer. I don't know what you're arguing about.

[Khandro]

naomi (and anyone), Recommend you go to
http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/News/Question1498377-1.html
and take a look at Dave50's link at 14:32

[jim360]

Perhaps we are looking at different links, is all I can say Naomi. The one I am referencing is the poll here:

http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/News/Question1418207.html

The nature of the poll makes it a reasonably useful measure of what AB, if not the country, thinks in general. It shows a clear bias in favour of the right as compared to the actual result, no? The result is the effective prediction of a far, far larger Tory majority than was the case. Not around 10, but closer to 100. The scale of the win is the point here. Polls nationwide tended to predict a hung parliament with the Conservatives winning around 310-320 seats. Numerically, at least, this is rather closer to the actual result, although of course politically the difference is vast.

In the last few years, whenever AB is polled it shows a general slant in the direction of the right, a slant particularly marked when the EU question comes up:

http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/News/Question1488014.html

http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/News/Question1377495.html

http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/News/Question1341085.html

http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/News/Question1063328.html

[naomi24]

Jim, I'm not arguing over split hairs. My point was that the AB poll got it right. The others didn't.

[Khandro]

naomi; take a look, ^^ it's nothing to do with polls, just think it will interest you.

[naomi24]

Khandro, I did. I've googled other references and I'm still pondering.

[jim360]

You have a very different definition of "right" from me, it seems. Would AB's poll still have been right if it predicted a house made entirely of Conservative MPs? If not, at what overly inflated number of Tories does it start being right?

AB predicted Tories: 373, actual 331.
AB predicted Labour: 188, actual 232.

An error of 40 seats is hardly "right", no?

[naomi24]

jim, Good grief! The polls predicted a Labour victory. The AB poll predicted a Conservative victory. How difficult is that to understand?

[jim360]

The polls didn't predict a Labour victory, in point of fact. They predicted hung parliaments, and were still wrong, but in terms of seat numbers at least they were less wrong than AB was. And you seem determined to ignore margins for some reason. If AB predicted a Conservative majority of 100 and the actual majority was 12, why is that somehow "right" -- or, more to the point, why is that representative of the country?

[naomi24]

Jim, I've not mentioned margins. I simply said that the AB voters predicted the outcome of the election - a win for the Conservatives. Other polls didn't. Carry on playing with numbers if you like. It makes no difference to the outcome.

[grasscarp]

Just wondering why the "Related Questions" below this thread is about Severe Indigestion posted ten years ago!