The Perils Of Privatisation - Part X
News8 mins ago
Owen Smith And Article 50....
81 Answers
so, what's he saying here?
http://
"you voted out. are you sure? are you really sure? are you really really really sure?"
i wonder what the "right" answer is this time?
http://
"you voted out. are you sure? are you really sure? are you really really really sure?"
i wonder what the "right" answer is this time?
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As already said Labour, like the EU will keep demanding referendums until they get the answer they want.
*** democracy.
However it might sway theses that voted out to vote for him if they thought they could eventually get their own way.
Labour is a dangerous machine at the moment. Neither candidate inspires me with confidence that they would run the country without driving us into the ground
*** democracy.
However it might sway theses that voted out to vote for him if they thought they could eventually get their own way.
Labour is a dangerous machine at the moment. Neither candidate inspires me with confidence that they would run the country without driving us into the ground
The Conservatives are not falling over themselves to invoke Article 50. Full brexit won't happen.
Nearly everyone agrees we need access to the European single market, and the cost of that is what we are already paying, but without any voting rights.
In the future we will be presented with a choice, to invoke or not. This will probably be in an early General Election possibly in the Spring (but maybe earlier). The official Conservative policy will be to not invoke, and Mrs May will win the election with a good majority.
Oh, the question was, what is Owen Smith saying. Answer: Who cares, he is a total irrelevancy.
Nearly everyone agrees we need access to the European single market, and the cost of that is what we are already paying, but without any voting rights.
In the future we will be presented with a choice, to invoke or not. This will probably be in an early General Election possibly in the Spring (but maybe earlier). The official Conservative policy will be to not invoke, and Mrs May will win the election with a good majority.
Oh, the question was, what is Owen Smith saying. Answer: Who cares, he is a total irrelevancy.
I think we've discussed the second referendum idea on AB before. I'm sure it was NJ (and if not him, then anyone else who spent a few seconds thinking about) who pointed out the fatal flaw in such an approach. Either a referendum has a "no, seriously this time" question, which is just openly contemptuous; or it has a "do you accept the terms of this deal" question, but then if the British people say no -- after Article 50 is triggered it wouldn't stop Brexit anyway, so it's a pretty pointless referendum to hold.
That leaves a General Election, but at the moment the timing is looking like the General Election is going to happen around the same time as the negotiation deals end anyway. So ... well, Owen Smith isn't going to win anyway, so it hardly matters.
What is true though is that there is a very real possibility at some point of a clash between parliamentary democracy and the referendum. If, for whatever reason, Theresa May doesn't/ can't trigger Article 50 before an election is held, then that raises the prospect of a party winning the election running specifically on a "stay in the EU" manifesto promise. The aftermath of that outcome could be 'fun'.
That leaves a General Election, but at the moment the timing is looking like the General Election is going to happen around the same time as the negotiation deals end anyway. So ... well, Owen Smith isn't going to win anyway, so it hardly matters.
What is true though is that there is a very real possibility at some point of a clash between parliamentary democracy and the referendum. If, for whatever reason, Theresa May doesn't/ can't trigger Article 50 before an election is held, then that raises the prospect of a party winning the election running specifically on a "stay in the EU" manifesto promise. The aftermath of that outcome could be 'fun'.
//Nearly everyone agrees we need access to the European single market,//
Yes, but not at any cost and it's easy enough to have it just pay tariffs. Tariffs are much better for us as we import more from the EU than we export (and our exports have been falling for years). We dont need to pay any money to access the EU as that in itself is just a tariff by another name.
If VW, BMW, Audi, Renault, Peugeot etc etc can live without the UK market then good luck to them.
As for Owen Smith he is grasping at straws, he has challenged a labour leader who had a landslide mandate and he will loose and be forever in the political wilderness.
Yes, but not at any cost and it's easy enough to have it just pay tariffs. Tariffs are much better for us as we import more from the EU than we export (and our exports have been falling for years). We dont need to pay any money to access the EU as that in itself is just a tariff by another name.
If VW, BMW, Audi, Renault, Peugeot etc etc can live without the UK market then good luck to them.
As for Owen Smith he is grasping at straws, he has challenged a labour leader who had a landslide mandate and he will loose and be forever in the political wilderness.
May has already said she will not nvoke article 50 this year. She shows very little enthusiasm for it.
There was no detail about what brexit would mean and cost during the referendum. During the next year, that will be properly worked out and costed. May will spell out that invoking will be bad for Britain. The voters will be invited to vote Conservative on a manifesto of accepting a new, improved deal from Europe. One that will be demonstratedly cheaper, more security for jobs and industry than invoking. The Conservatives will win the early election convincingly. One or two euroskeptic will leave the party in disgust, but not many.
There was no detail about what brexit would mean and cost during the referendum. During the next year, that will be properly worked out and costed. May will spell out that invoking will be bad for Britain. The voters will be invited to vote Conservative on a manifesto of accepting a new, improved deal from Europe. One that will be demonstratedly cheaper, more security for jobs and industry than invoking. The Conservatives will win the early election convincingly. One or two euroskeptic will leave the party in disgust, but not many.
Unfortunately that doesn't quite follow, Hopkirk -- or, at least, it's something that would have to be put to an electoral test.
In the first place, while it may be political suicide, what if it were judged from the top that Brexit is after all "national suicide"? In that case -- or, indeed, in any other case -- wouldn't it be refreshing to have a politician turn around and say "my career is not worth keeping if it means implementing this policy"? That's not to say that such a judgement about Brexit is correct but the point is that maybe Theresa May might think it would putting the country before herself, so political suicide isn't necessarily a guarantee that Brexit would happen.
But in any case, the arithmetic of General Elections may well mean that it would be politically triumphant to oppose the referendum result. After all, 16 million people did vote to remain in the EU. If those 16 million could be persuaded to vote for a single party then almost certainly that party would then win a landslide. Perhaps, even, Theresa May could pitch the Conservative Party as standing up for the Remainers over the Brexiters.
In practice I don't expect this to happen. But it could. Even that fact ought to be enough to demonstrate that there is a basic, and potentially quite horrific, flaw in our electoral system.
In the first place, while it may be political suicide, what if it were judged from the top that Brexit is after all "national suicide"? In that case -- or, indeed, in any other case -- wouldn't it be refreshing to have a politician turn around and say "my career is not worth keeping if it means implementing this policy"? That's not to say that such a judgement about Brexit is correct but the point is that maybe Theresa May might think it would putting the country before herself, so political suicide isn't necessarily a guarantee that Brexit would happen.
But in any case, the arithmetic of General Elections may well mean that it would be politically triumphant to oppose the referendum result. After all, 16 million people did vote to remain in the EU. If those 16 million could be persuaded to vote for a single party then almost certainly that party would then win a landslide. Perhaps, even, Theresa May could pitch the Conservative Party as standing up for the Remainers over the Brexiters.
In practice I don't expect this to happen. But it could. Even that fact ought to be enough to demonstrate that there is a basic, and potentially quite horrific, flaw in our electoral system.
Gromti, whilst I want out of the EU quickk I am also not stupid enough to bite my nose off to spite my face.
Do you think it would be sensible to May to start the ball rolling before the new government ministers, and THE Whitehall backup, as got it's act fully together? In addition the EU is pushing for triggering, still the arrogance of telling us what to do. The message needs to be sent to them 'In our own time'. That will also send the correct message out ready for any possible negotiations and disentanglement.
Do you think it would be sensible to May to start the ball rolling before the new government ministers, and THE Whitehall backup, as got it's act fully together? In addition the EU is pushing for triggering, still the arrogance of telling us what to do. The message needs to be sent to them 'In our own time'. That will also send the correct message out ready for any possible negotiations and disentanglement.
I listened to Owen Smith on the Today programme this morning.
John Humphreys was almost squeaking in outraged disbelief as his voice got higher and higher as he continually asked Mr Smith whether he really thought that a second referendum was in any way a reasonable response to the Brexit result.
Mr Smith's argument - if it can be dignified with that label - was that when the electorate see the deal and the terms of Brexit, they should then have a chance to vote again, on the basis that they didn't know what they were voting for the first time!
On that basis, can we have a re-run of the election when Tony Blair won the first time, given that we didn't know then that he was going to turn out to be a corrupt scheming warmonger?
Mr Smith is even less credible than Mr Corbyn, and that is a tough battle to win!
John Humphreys was almost squeaking in outraged disbelief as his voice got higher and higher as he continually asked Mr Smith whether he really thought that a second referendum was in any way a reasonable response to the Brexit result.
Mr Smith's argument - if it can be dignified with that label - was that when the electorate see the deal and the terms of Brexit, they should then have a chance to vote again, on the basis that they didn't know what they were voting for the first time!
On that basis, can we have a re-run of the election when Tony Blair won the first time, given that we didn't know then that he was going to turn out to be a corrupt scheming warmonger?
Mr Smith is even less credible than Mr Corbyn, and that is a tough battle to win!
Hopkirk.
All May has said is "Brexit means Brexit" whatever that means?
In the meantime, she has set up her political enemies, Johnson and Fox, to fail. They are already falling out and they are supposed to be on the same side. She will conclude that their Brexit work is not good enough, and reject it, blaming them for not invoking.
All May has said is "Brexit means Brexit" whatever that means?
In the meantime, she has set up her political enemies, Johnson and Fox, to fail. They are already falling out and they are supposed to be on the same side. She will conclude that their Brexit work is not good enough, and reject it, blaming them for not invoking.
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