Election Polls

[mikey4444]

I know that polls are now expected to be wrong, and I am certainly not predicting anything dramatic, at this stage in the proceedings. I still expect the Tories to win on June 8th.

But all the Polls are looking very interesting. It appears that the earlier Tory surge has ground to a halt, and they are even going backward, whereas Labour is looking stronger every day.

I think its still too late for Labour to win, but its interesting to see that the re-launch of the Tory Manifesto was cancelled a couple of days ago, with David Davies appearing on Any Questions instead. Some Pollsters are saying that rather than Mrs May having a larger, more secure majority, that majority may very well shrink.

We live in interesting times !

[Jackdaw33]

Latest prediction from your favourite source is a Tory majority of 116.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

[Sqad]

Morning mikey......yes, on the 28th May 2017 that is a fair evaluation of the "Polls"

[Old_Geezer]

Well drop a few unpopular bombshells and what can one expect ? That said it is the marginals that decide the end result.

[mikey4444]

Morning Sqad !

Yes, at this moment in time, I think that its fair to say that things are not going all Mrs May's way, or even a little bit here way to be honest. Despite the constant personal attacks on Corbyn, he has steadfastly refused to return the insults.

Strong and Stable seems to have been forgotten about as well, as there is nothing remotely stable about the Tories continuing confusion over its Manifesto. Andrew Neil said this week that her difficulties over her care proposals was the first time he had encountered a U-turn BEFORE an Election !

With less than 2 weeks to go, the Tories should be soaring ahead, not finding itself continually on the back foot.

[Khandro]

I think the "surge" in labour support is not only wishful thinking by the left, but is a policy of right leaning conservative reporting to encourage even more voting in their favour to obtain the maximum majority possible. I mean who in their right mind would want to see Jeremy Corbyn and Dianne Abbot as leaders of the United Kingdom?

[mikey4444]

Khandro.....that is as maybe but the decline of the Tories and the rise of Labour seems to be happening.

I still maintain that the Tories shouldn't be having these difficulties so close to the Election.

[jim360]

On the other hand, if that's true, who in their right mind would want to see as leaders of their country people who deliberately publish misleading or even fake figures in an attempt to frighten the public into voting for them rather than the opposition? Or, if not engaged in this themselves, are supported (and so installed in power) by people who are?

[Jackdaw33]

Although her case has some merit it was foolish in the extreme for May to announce the means-testing of the Winter fuel allowance, leading to speculation that this may apply in future to the state pension. To alienate the grey vote is akin to committing political suicide.

[jim360]

As JD points out, this still hasn't really affected the outcome much. Still, he ought to note that (a) there's some "lag" in the EC prediction, as it's based on the last fortnight of polls, and (b) the trend in the prediction has been for that Tory majority to shrink in the last few weeks. Fairly sure it was at the high 180s only a week ago or so. I don't imagine there's enough time for it to shrink to zero, but the trend is towards an ever-smaller Tory majority so who knows?

It's frustrating that EC doesn't release prediction trends, in the manner of, say, fivethirtyeight.com, so that you can see how it's evolved over time.

[emmie]

we do live in interesting times, i think the tories will win but its going to closer than anyone thinks.

[mikey4444]

Mrs May's mistake was in making her various attacks on pensioners.

She comes over as very cock-sure, but she should have realised that trying to win an Election, by making OAPs potentially poorer is never a good idea. I am surprised that her more experienced colleagues didn't at least try to make that clear to her.

She compounded her obvious error by trying to pretend that she wasn't doing a U-Turn after all.

Strong and Stable ?.....more like Weak and Unprepared

[Zacs-Master]

The tories can afford to make a few mistakes with such a large majority. A credible opposition might sharpen their pencils and ideas, but there isn't one a round.

[mikey4444]

I can't post a link to this, because I don't subscribe, but the Sunday Times has front page news this morning .....

" Nervous Tories to relaunch May's campaign"

[agchristie]

The Tories do seem to be making heavy weather of it all of late but as has been said the gap should be too big to bridge.

No room for complacency though and the Tories will want to expand that majority as close to three figures as possible. I'm guessing at best it will fall between 50-60 but what do I know!

[agchristie]

'Nervous Tories' - surely not?

May didn't even have to call this election and must be confident with any negatives factored into the equation.

It's surely all a matter of how much the majority will increase by.

Look at all those lovely UKIP votes up for grabs and can Labour make some inroads in Scotland?

[Jackdaw33]

I agree. My gut feeling is that the UKIP vote will collapse, after all, job done, and the main beneficiaries will be the Tories. If Labour recover in Scotland it will make no difference as it will be at the expense of the SNP, merely exchanging one set of opposition politicians for another.

[hereIam]

The comment at 9:38, that is why she has lost this 'grey' vote !

[jourdain2]

I think the result will be nearer the one I hoped for, i.e. a Tory majority comfortable enough for May to drive a good bargain on Brexit (or walk away if they won't play ball) but not a steamroller giving them the idea they can do anything they please. I would be happy to see an overall majority of about 30.

Very frightened by the prospect for this country if Labour were to win - or a hung Parliament ensue, quite frankly, EU would steamroller us. Really unthinkable in this election - and I am not a Tory (used to be) but a 'floater'. I will probably vote UKIP for the 2nd time because our MP is completely rock-solid (and a Leaver) to give voice to those who want the Government to stick to its guns.

[Jackdaw33]

The trouble with being a 'floater' is that occasionally you may sink. I prefer to be fast aboard the good ship Tory.

[jim360]

Even then you could still go down with the ship :P