Sterling Dips After Poll Suggests Hung Parliament

[mikey4444]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40101566

I am not changing my prediction for June 8th, but ............!

[ichkeria]

What I find rather worrying is not the prospect of Corbyn being PM, because he isn't going to be, but the sheer incompetence of the Tory campaign. Maybe it is just the case that a sense of inevitability and complacency has led to them not trying very hard, but there are some sterner challenges ahead than swatting aside a bunch of out-of-date policies, and if they struggle to do that ...

[-Talbot-]

And what is your problem with the pound dipping, mikey?

Or is that it ... you don't have a view, a point ... just an headline?

[Old_Geezer]

It makes it more difficult to buy up and control the rest of the world, and easier for the rest of the world to buy up and control the UK.

[jim360]

Funnily enough, a few months ago when the pound was in virtual freefall, various Brexit supporters were explaining how wonderful a weaker pound was.

[Apariah]

this is a terrible tory campaign but even that wont give it to labour.

[Khandro]

jim; You have a point at 08:17 but when it rises again, as it will, what will be the excuse I wonder

[jim360]

No idea -- I started following foreign exchange markets since about June 23rd, but I still can't make head or tail of how some of the fluctuations work.

Some news came out in the last hour that saw the pound regain its losses from the election poll news -- I didn't expect this fall to stick, mind. Too short-term and a reaction to what could just be an outlying poll anyway.

[Old_Geezer]

As you are aware Jim, it has both pros and cons. Maybe folk have decided it's fallen enough for now and it's preferable if it remains stable for a bit.

[jim360]

Well, possibly. My own theory is that the rises and falls are good or bad depending on what you want them to be. A fall in the aftermath of Brexit-related news is "good" because it will be good for exports; a fall linked to election uncertainty is "bad" because it shows how markets fear a Labour majority. Or something like that. And vice versa.

[-Talbot-]

jim360

@
11:42 Wed 31st May 2017


Exactly why this is a pointless thread. (unless mikey wants to enlighten me)

[jim360]

Oh, the poll's news. The fall in sterling isn't really (yet).

[youngmafbog]

These blips are caused by currency traders using whatever they can to try and manipulate the price in whichever way they can. In the old days it was not unusual for some to actually create rumours to do it.

The true value of a currency can only be determined by looking at the long term trends not on an hour by hour or even daily basis.

[Khandro]

Hung Parliament ??
The bookies have the Tory majority at 92, even taking into account Labour's recent rise & May's manifesto disaster.

Follow the money.

[jim360]

That's a majority of 92 when only three weeks ago we were looking at possible majorities of 150 or even 200. The trend's heading in one direction only now. Labour only have a week left to make the most of that trend, and it might not be enough all the same, but predictions of a large Tory majority look premature now.

(And yes, I was one of those making such a prediction.)

[jim360]

http://newsthump.com/2017/05/31/polls-suddenly-accurate/

[Ellipsis]

Follow the money Khandro ... like for the Brexit vote, you mean?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-brexit-how-the-bookies-got-eu-referendum-odds-so-wrong-40-million-bet-a7100856.html

Fat lot of good that did.

[Khandro]

jim; Egg on face time;
"NewsThump – UK spoof news and satire
newsthump.com/
Topical news satire from the UK and around the world. Never letting the truth ruin a good story."

[jim360]

Oh, that's a satirical news site? I had nooooooooo idea of that.

[Khandro]

This one's better;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/yougov-pollsters-getting-wrong-theresa-may-still-set-landslide/

[Khandro]

Also; on the strength of this spurious poll, sterling dropped by around 2% and is now bounced back again, methinks someone (possibly connected) will have made an awful lot of money out of this.