I don't know, Brussels have been pretty clear and consistent about what their goals are. The UK can't have single market access without paying for it, they weren't willing to start negotiations before A50 was triggered, and they wanted negotiations to go procedurally rather than all at once. Their goal - again, quite openly - is the cohesion of the single market, which means they can't give us a deal which incentivises others to consider leaving it.
Try as I might, I'm really not clear at all what "cards" the UK holds. All I ever hear is variants on "we are an important market." Which is true, but it's hard to say whether that's enough for what we want when the govt is so evasive about what its goals are.
Once again, I'd hate to be cynical, but it seems overwhelmingly likely that the govt is being unclear about its objectives so that it can declare victory regardless of what the outcome is. But I'm sure that can't be it...