A Bad Night For Labour

[Deskdiary]

Oh Dear.

Despite the vote for any mid-term election usually going against the incumbent Government, despite the bad couple of weeks with Windrush, despite the (so we are being told by the Remain camp) Brexit negotiations not going well....and so on and so forth, I'd have expected Labour, as Labour expected, to have done considerably better than they have.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/04/labour-and-tories-enjoy-mixed-night-of-results-in-local-elections-in-england

Is this an indictment of Labour's hapless leader?

[Kromovaracun]

I'm not sure it's bad enough to indict Corbyn. A lot of the party members, in hindsight, got extremely excited and set some ludicrous goals - e.g. taking Wandsworth and Westminster councils, which are extremely Tory.

Pretty average result for them really. Tories benefiting from the collapsed UKIP vote and the loyalty of their base supporters.

[Cloverjo]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43997872

It doesn't look too bad for Labour right now. Labour have gained some seats. Cons have lost a few.

[Sqad]

Clover......and Labour have lost a few and Cons have gained a few ;-)

Lib Dems seem to have done well, gathering up UKIP disenchanted supporters.
Par for the course I would have thought.

[Spungle]

Whatever else, a total lack of expectation management from Labour. The London Mayor finds himself up Sadiq creek once more, after his claim "We'll turn London red" then not winning one council.

Egg on face.

[Gromit]

As I predicted yesterday, everyone lost.

Labour had target seats, but did not get them all.
Pundits predicted a rout in London, and Tories were fearful, but that did not happen.

The Conservatives benefitted by the UKIP collapse, which is a bit of a hollow victory. UKIP did not contest many seats and should call it a day and close down.

[ToraToraTora]

I guess the general public are not too enamoured with a national Socialist party lead by a Russian Agent. Even the loyalty of traditional Labour voters has limits.

[ToraToraTora]

gromit: "The Conservatives benefitted by the UKIP collapse, which is a bit of a hollow victory" - not really, UKIP voters are mostly Tories anyway, UKIP have served their purpose, so their core vote is returning home.

[youngmafbog]

In addition Labour took back Plymouth by taking the UKIP seats, in general UKIP have lost seats to both main parties.

It's a mixed bag the only thing showing is that Lib Dems may well be starting to be forgiven and UKIP, as most on here realised, has achieved it's aims and so is redundant.

[jim360]

Also depends a little on what you're comparing it to. The equivalent elections in 2014 went pretty well for Labour already, so it's difficult to draw conclusions just yet. Also, if, as TTT says, Ukip voters mostly returned to the Tories, then that complicates the analysis too.

At 2014 the effective national vote share was something like 31% Lab, 29% Con, 17% Ukip, and 13% LibDem. I'm not sure what the equivalent figures are for yesterday but it seems likely that Labour are still coming out slightly ahead.

[youngmafbog]

Except jim, often people will use the local elections to give a bloody nose so Labour after 8 years should be doing much better. In addition although some may give a bloody nose in a mid term when it comes to a General that is not the case.

To be honest I dont think any conclusions on any party can really be drawn by this.

[ToraToraTora]

yep, YMB, the PM will be happy with this, Labour should have been thumping the Tories in a mid term local and they just aren't at the races. I guess even the Labour faithful are concerned about agent COB and his merry band of extremists. Even the limp dums are making a comeback. Not enough to dump the Cobster though which is good for the Tories in the next GE. Overall I'm more pleased than I though It would be this morning.

[jim360]

I guess my point was that the results of yesterday seem to suggest a scenario where Labour have a narrow lead over the Tories, even with Ukip support collapsing. Not a stellar night by any means, for sure.

[ToraToraTora]

fair enough jim but when you expect a bloody nose, not to get one feels good.

[youngmafbog]

That is very true TTT, the last thing the Tories want is COB deposed. He, and his motley crew of Abbot etc, are their best hope in their winning the next GE.

[ichkeria]

A largely meaningless outcome - given regional variations and low turnouts. No surprise there.
I usually get excited about elections but I couldn’t get worked up about this one and didn’t really understand why so many people seemed to be.

[youngmafbog]

I totally agree Ick.

I think what generated some interest was the labour boast of turning the capital red. Seems to have backfired much like Kinnokio celebrating before he had actually won. They never learn.

[Jackdaw33]

i suspect that one of the reasons for the increase in the LD vote is that they have taken votes from moderate Labour who cannot bring themselves to vote for Corbyn.

[youngmafbog]

Could just be a return to LD. They were often more popular as councillors than as MP's but the Councillors got tarred with the same brush and so got hammered.

[Ric.ror]

I spoiled my ballot paper - I wrote 'Corbyn Out' on next to the Labour candidate. It did no good - he won and unseated a very good local Lib Dem. I was told that all spoilt papers have to be read out to all the candidates - hope mine was