Can Bojo Get It This Time?

[ToraToraTora]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48299424
Personally I'd prefer Raab but I think Bojo will take some stopping. Anyway until Brexit is resolved there is no point in changing Treason.

[jim360]

I think BoJo's star has diminished lately (or at least he's loathed more than he's liked, even if he's liked the most). So maybe don't pencil him in as leader just yet. Also if it's left to the Conservative membership then maybe he does win, but as he has to get past the Parliamentary Party first that reduces his odds significantly.

[dannyk13]

Could be a close run thing, but I think Dominic Raab might just edge it, although Gove must be taken into account.

[ludwig]

I don't fancy having to choose between Bojo and Jezza at the next election.

[ToraToraTora]

even with the Tories in disarray, COB can't score in an open goal, so no danger of Jezza getting anywhere near No 10. Once Brexit is sorted Labour will dump him and his band of extremists in time to give the new leader a decent run at the 2022 election. Now next labour leader? that's a tough one, I feel a question coming on.....

[ichkeria]

Theresa May will surely resign if the Commons votes down her deal - again.
That will probably signal the end of one if the longest parliaments in British history and it’s inconceivable she’d be able to manage to pass a new Queen’s speech.
And then the fun starts :-)

I’d be careful what you wish for Brexit supporters. Mrs May going clears the way for a referendum or a general election or both.
A new parliament would have fewer Tory MPs I think it’s reasonable to assume.

[Bigbad]

If he does, I wouldn’t vote Conservative again.
I just hope The Brexit party does well next week and can give us an idea what other things they would do for the country.
Perhaps I wouldn’t be partyless then.

[naomi24]

//I don't fancy having to choose between Bojo and Jezza at the next election. //

That wouldn't present a great problem to me. Boris might not be ideal - but Corbyn he isn't.

[grumpy01]

Bojo trying to walk and talk like Churchill doesn’t do it for me.Conservatives got it so wrong when they chose the wrong David.

[jim360]

More likely if Theresa May goes is that the new PM slaps their name on what is essentially the same deal, and this time -- shorn of the stigma of being Theresa May's deal -- it finally passes.

[hereIam]

Bojo over Jezza any day, but I won't be voting anyway. (Unless we DO leave the EU of course.)

[ichkeria]

I can’t see that jim. Perhaps if the Tories elect a sensible replacement but can you see Boris Johnson trying to get the same deal through Parliament?
It was the terms of the deal that killed May, not vice Verda.

[Ken4155]

According to 'Oddschecker', best prices are;;

Bojo @ 3/1
Raab @ 13/2
Gove @ 10/1
Hunt @ 11/1
Hancock @ 16/1
Javid @ 18/1
Stewart @ 20/1
Mordaunt @ 22/1
JRM @ 50/1

[jim360]

Well, it can go either way. But I suppose my point is that May's deal, up to some minor tweaks, is the only way that MPs can meaningfully claim to have left the EU without causing huge economic fallout. It's not unprecedented for a measure to be toxic as long as it's attached to a particular person, and then become suddenly palatable as soon as they are out of the picture. (Oh, and Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement in MV2.5, so he can pretend to be opposed to it all he likes -- when it comes to it he'd back it.)

Besides, the EU won't budge just because BoJo or anyone else is PM instead of May. Maybe once he, or someone else, takes over, they'll see things the same way May has been, rather than enjoy the privilege of shouting from the sidelines.

[ichkeria]

In all my time following politics the Tories have only ever elected one long term leader who was the “favourite” and that was Cameron.
Still, that turned out well I suppose :-)

[ichkeria]

I think there’s a difference between backing it him and actually trying to steer it through as leader.
We’ll see.
At any rate it would be a dark day if that oaf ever got into No Ten

[ichkeria]

“Jim” not “him” :-)

[New Judge]

//...my point is that May's deal, up to some minor tweaks, is the only way that MPs can meaningfully claim to have left the EU without causing huge economic fallout.//

They cannot make such a claim under Mrs May's deal, with or without minor tweaks. The deal is arguably worse than remaining because it ties the UK into a treaty which it cannot unilaterally rescind. Such an alternative treaty does not see the UK leave the EU in anything other than having its name crossed off the list of members. It does not even warrant being labelled a far cry from Mrs May's Lancaster House speech. The "huge economic fallout" is simply speculation and is never accompanied by (a) any similar fallout that will be visited on the EU27 or (b) the advantages that the UK will see from a clean break.

[ichkeria]

And it seems the PM WILL resign if the vote goes against her.
On the strength of that knowledge we will see how much stomach there is for someone else taking over the reins :-)

[cassa333]

I thought she should have gone long ago but tbh what is it about her in particular that is stopping Brexit.

Well she has a xxxx deal that no one likes but is there any chance a new pm could do anything differently now?

The EU will only give so many extensions and even if they ‘give’ a little on the deal to a new pm I don’t think it will be enough to change the deal in any appreciative or substantive way.

Therefore I think we will be in no different a position. But a new PM would make people feel better about ‘having got rid of that awful pm’.

[goodgoalie]

Don't forget that Boris represents a 'Remain' constituency, so in the General Election which looks likely ere long, he might well lose his seat.