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Is The Cure Worse Than The Disease?
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An interesting view from Peter Hitchens here. Has he got a point?
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When the pubs were ordered to close on March 20th and the other lockdown measures followed I posted somewhere on here that I doubt that it would do any good. I based my doubts on the fact that similar (if not harsher) measures had failed to halt the rise in the number of new cases in Italy (who were said to be about two weeks ahead of the UK with the crisis). Well we’re...
15:17 Sun 12th Apr 2020
I think he certainly does, not being at all a fan of the man.
The measures taken have always been not about reducing the number of cases, but about avoiding a situation where there were so many people seriously ill that hospitals would not be able to treat some of them and they’d die where otherwise they might not have.
No one can know therefore how many lives are actually being saved.
It’s not to say he’s right - but ...
It is indeed quite likely that this is been around since December and has already been caught by a large number of people most of whom have been merrily spreading it ever since.
The measures taken have always been not about reducing the number of cases, but about avoiding a situation where there were so many people seriously ill that hospitals would not be able to treat some of them and they’d die where otherwise they might not have.
No one can know therefore how many lives are actually being saved.
It’s not to say he’s right - but ...
It is indeed quite likely that this is been around since December and has already been caught by a large number of people most of whom have been merrily spreading it ever since.
I think he makes valid points. But the problem is that doing nothing isn't an option, and how far one goes without it being too far, is a subjective feeling, not something known. We just have to hope we find the right balance, and I suspect official policy has gone overboard at present but at the same time there are sections of the public that can't seem to stick to even reasonable restrictions.
There is a middle ground where one need not cower in fear and wreck all; nor cavalierlike do nothing and experience a huge hump of folk needing hospital treatment all at once.
There is a middle ground where one need not cower in fear and wreck all; nor cavalierlike do nothing and experience a huge hump of folk needing hospital treatment all at once.
He is suggesting that we should have carried on as normal, while keeping safe distances. I fail to see how he thinks London, the worst hit area, could have carried on as normal while people maintained safe distances. Perhaps he has never been on public transport, or been to the City during a working day.
I think he makes very valid points but probably too early to say them without the majority finding them distasteful (well if AB is a good enough sample to judge by..). A few more weeks of this and I think more people will voice a similar argument. The facts are that nobody really knows the answer including the AB hero Chris Whitty, the government, Hancock, expert epidemiologists, scientists and doctors from across the world and our resident AB experts. Nobody.
we won't really know till it's over. China got off to a very slow start (perhaps understandable because they alone had no warning) but have reined in the death toll, if you believe them. The US started extremely slowly, with Trump burying his head in the sane, and they've now had more deaths than anyone. Britain was slowish and has 10,000 dead; New Zealand was quick and has four, and Australia would probably be much the same except for a bananas decision to let people off an infected cruise ship. Sweden's taking a relaxed approach and has 900 dead; Denmark acted swiftly and has about 300.
There are too many differences in sociio-economc circumstances and in gathering statistics to draw any conclusions at the moment, so we don't know whether a response has worked at all, let alone whether it's worth it. I think there will be valuable lessons to lear, but nto yet.
I'm not sure about Hitchens' willingness to rely on the good sense of the citizenry, though. Many are displaying it; a substantial minority aren't.
There are too many differences in sociio-economc circumstances and in gathering statistics to draw any conclusions at the moment, so we don't know whether a response has worked at all, let alone whether it's worth it. I think there will be valuable lessons to lear, but nto yet.
I'm not sure about Hitchens' willingness to rely on the good sense of the citizenry, though. Many are displaying it; a substantial minority aren't.
China managed to cut off the city at the epicentre of the infection.
They still risk spreading it again tho presumably.
As to why weren’t people dying of it earlier here if it’s been around longer : for one thing, they might have been, in smaller numbers, but it may have taken longer for serious cases to emerge.
It would explain why it’s taken hold so swiftly now. No one as yet knows for sure though
They still risk spreading it again tho presumably.
As to why weren’t people dying of it earlier here if it’s been around longer : for one thing, they might have been, in smaller numbers, but it may have taken longer for serious cases to emerge.
It would explain why it’s taken hold so swiftly now. No one as yet knows for sure though
// Then why were hundreds/ thousands+ not dying of it in December, January, feb etc?//
well done steg - walking antidote the majority of ABers who blead 'we dont know - we just done know'
yeah we do
if we conclude from peripheral undisputed facts - like no one died whilst they were saying Virus X was stalking the happy go lucky Londoners - no one dead? then no virus !
well done steg - walking antidote the majority of ABers who blead 'we dont know - we just done know'
yeah we do
if we conclude from peripheral undisputed facts - like no one died whilst they were saying Virus X was stalking the happy go lucky Londoners - no one dead? then no virus !
When the pubs were ordered to close on March 20th and the other lockdown measures followed I posted somewhere on here that I doubt that it would do any good. I based my doubts on the fact that similar (if not harsher) measures had failed to halt the rise in the number of new cases in Italy (who were said to be about two weeks ahead of the UK with the crisis). Well we’re now three weeks on from that point. The number of confirmed cases in the UK on 21st March stood at 5,018. Yesterday it stood at 78,991 – not unadjacent to a sixteen fold increase. The incubation period is said to be fourteen days. Well 21 days have now passed and one would expect the number of new cases (or at least the percentage increase) to have declined in the last week. The numbers have continued to increase and although the percentage increase is down (as you might expect as the base gets bigger) it is has still averaged almost 10% per day for the last week.
So we come to Mr Hitchens’ point – is the cure more painful than the disease? In economic terms the answer is certainly yes. The UK’s economy has been slaughtered and it will take years, if not decades to recover. But the human cost of the “cure” is also rising. The lockdown will soon begin to have a profound effect on people’s mental health. Many are suffering financially and the longer this prevails the more businesses – certainly the smaller ones upon which the UK relies so much – will fail to survive. As far as the NHS goes, money is being lavished on it as never before. But when this is over the country will be skint, and the longer the lockdown prevails the more skint it will be. As well as that, already there are signs that people who are ill with matters other than Covid are seeing their treatment curtailed. Some of them with merely “uncomfortable” conditions will survive, but those needing critical treatment will not.
I’m inclined to agree with Mr Hitchens in that far more people have had this disease than is realised. Mrs NJ and I both suffered from Covid-like symptoms a while after we returned from the Caribbean in the last week of February. We both had a bad throat followed by a hacking cough which at times left us very short of breath. Thought nothing of it – just something we’d picked up on the aircraft. Who knows what we had? I know of one person (a mate’s wife) who dies “with” Covid but certainly not of it. She was seriously ill anyway and was not expected to see the summer. There needs to be an urgent review of the lockdown and a critical assessment made of its effectiveness. I am certainly beginning to think that the lockdown is scarcely effective and it’s beginning to seem that it might end up being far worse than the disease.
//Perhaps he has never been on public transport, or been to the City during a working day.//
Mr Hitchens certainly has used public transport. I used to see him quite often on the tube when I worked in Central London. I saw him on a bus in The Strand as recently as December.
//Then why were hundreds/ thousands+ not dying of it in December, January, feb etc?//
Probably because it was not recognised as a discreet condition much before then. As Mr Hitchens pointed out, around 1,600 people die every day in the UK and many of them die from flu-like illnesses in the winter.
So we come to Mr Hitchens’ point – is the cure more painful than the disease? In economic terms the answer is certainly yes. The UK’s economy has been slaughtered and it will take years, if not decades to recover. But the human cost of the “cure” is also rising. The lockdown will soon begin to have a profound effect on people’s mental health. Many are suffering financially and the longer this prevails the more businesses – certainly the smaller ones upon which the UK relies so much – will fail to survive. As far as the NHS goes, money is being lavished on it as never before. But when this is over the country will be skint, and the longer the lockdown prevails the more skint it will be. As well as that, already there are signs that people who are ill with matters other than Covid are seeing their treatment curtailed. Some of them with merely “uncomfortable” conditions will survive, but those needing critical treatment will not.
I’m inclined to agree with Mr Hitchens in that far more people have had this disease than is realised. Mrs NJ and I both suffered from Covid-like symptoms a while after we returned from the Caribbean in the last week of February. We both had a bad throat followed by a hacking cough which at times left us very short of breath. Thought nothing of it – just something we’d picked up on the aircraft. Who knows what we had? I know of one person (a mate’s wife) who dies “with” Covid but certainly not of it. She was seriously ill anyway and was not expected to see the summer. There needs to be an urgent review of the lockdown and a critical assessment made of its effectiveness. I am certainly beginning to think that the lockdown is scarcely effective and it’s beginning to seem that it might end up being far worse than the disease.
//Perhaps he has never been on public transport, or been to the City during a working day.//
Mr Hitchens certainly has used public transport. I used to see him quite often on the tube when I worked in Central London. I saw him on a bus in The Strand as recently as December.
//Then why were hundreds/ thousands+ not dying of it in December, January, feb etc?//
Probably because it was not recognised as a discreet condition much before then. As Mr Hitchens pointed out, around 1,600 people die every day in the UK and many of them die from flu-like illnesses in the winter.
////Perhaps he has never been on public transport, or been to the City during a working day.//
Mr Hitchens certainly has used public transport. I used to see him quite often on the tube when I worked in Central London. I saw him on a bus in The Strand as recently as December.//
Then, as you no doubt realise, his suggestion that we could have carried on working as normal and maintained safe distances at the same time is quite ridiculous.
Mr Hitchens certainly has used public transport. I used to see him quite often on the tube when I worked in Central London. I saw him on a bus in The Strand as recently as December.//
Then, as you no doubt realise, his suggestion that we could have carried on working as normal and maintained safe distances at the same time is quite ridiculous.
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