Covid19.

[MynameisLuca]

Seems the deaths from covid are inaccurate. An example would be, someone who is positive for Covid, then cleared, then dies in a car crash and it's counted as a COVID19 death. Why are they doing this?

[davebro]

Also no account seems to be taken regarding the predisposition of a population to the transmission of the virus and it's worst outcomes - population density & distribution, age profile of the population, existing state of health, ethnicity (appears to be a factor), etc.
These will be similar in some countries but very different in others.

[bednobs]

I feel very sorry for all these hundreds and thousands of people who survive covid then get run over by a bus/car

[Gromit]

Changes in the way we have lived during the pandemic may also have had a positive effect on our health, and reduce excess deaths.
For example, poor air quality kills 36,000 every year. But for 4 months our air quality has been substantially i proved especially in our cities.
Road accident deaths should also go down because traffic was reduced.
There haven’t been more murders. There is no evidence that suicides are any higher than normal.
Yet we have an increase in excess deaths way above the publicised Covid-19 mortality count.

[fiction-factory]

I think the excess deaths figure may actually become negative later this year if Covid remains reasonably under control.
But, YMB, there is someknown under-recording, in that we only count as Covid those where there was a positive Covid test. Doctors may put Covid on the death cert but if there was no test then it's not counted as Covid for these stats. This was more of an issue in Feb/March/April I think when fewer tests were done

[youngmafbog]

The problem is we dont know. Unlike Gromit I am not going to jump one way or another to suit my agenda, I want properly anaysed figures which will take time. Why would anyone want anything else, how does it help to make sweeping statements on incomplete/incorrect data?

[youngmafbog]

Gromit, are you honestly saying that there will be no increase in suicide rates once mass unemployment kicks in?

The virus has already caused an increase in mental health issues, basic logic is that unfortunately this will lead to increase in suicide.

[KARL]

"I want properly analysed figures". Unfortunately by now we know that, for the UK, accurate figures will never become available because accurate data was never gathered - huge gaps in testing, slap-dash recording, etc. Whatever will ultimately become the official tally for the total number of cases and/or deaths will be some committee's best estimate based on whatever criteria they settle on. It is inevitable that on either side of each official number there will me margins which will be chewed over for evermore, in the best fuzzy/fudged British fashion. There will be no agreement and nothing will improve.

[KARL]

*be, not me

[Gromit]

Ymb,
Suicide rates have been trending upwards for the last few years, and I don’t doubt that will continue.
Alarmist reports at the start of the pandemic were speculating deaths could double, but we just haven’t seen it.
High unemployment and high suicides usually go together. I do fear we are in for a lot of job losses this year. 3 of my friends lost their jobs last week due to the furlough scheme ending soon.

[fiction-factory]

Karl. We are talking about data on numbers of deaths here. I know you have an issue with our data on cases and the resultant fatality rates but that's a separate issue. Can you suggest a country which is counting Covid deaths perfectly or almost perfectly? Maybe the UK way of counting it is more accurate than other countries' methods and that's one reason why our death rate is so high?

[KARL]

I know something about how the Nordic countries assemble their records and there it seemingly is a case of if someone tests positive for Corona virus then that is a recorded case, active if no antibodies found but inactive/recovered if symptomless but with antibodies. In some cases/countries all infected individuals were monitored to the end of their illness (while in quarantine/isolation/hospital). Deaths are recorded as being due to Covid if the person is Corona positive and being treated and/or recovering from from the illness - recovery only being declared once all symptoms have disappeared. There it is accepted that some cases will go totally undetected which is why they also assume/indicate/publish "for discussion/information only" an assumed grand total of infections over and above detected ones. These countries have from the beginning tested all suspected cases plus hospital admissions plus health care staff and care home residents and staff. Some of them have provided testing on demand generally, well beyond the above list for routine testing. Further, some of them currently test arrivals from abroad and also again within a week of arrival (local residents only). Because there has been lots of comprehensive testing from the outset I would easily accept Nordic records as complete and entirely reliable. Incidentally, Greenland falls into the same category although not a Nordic country.

I am insufficiently familiar with the regime used in Germany but I would be inclined to think their records are quite thorough. Also, it would not surprise me if countries such as Czechia, Slovakia and Slovenia and even Portugal are pretty good or at least close to being beyond major criticism. Some Asian countries I would expect to be just about as good as it gets. There will be other countries possessing very impressive accuracy.

Every record should be subject to scrutiny but not to the point of pedantry - they should meet all reasonable expectations but focussing on the last digit's precision is not reasonable except for example where case/death numbers are very low. On records, the UK's failure centres mainly (but not only) on not having tested anything like rigorously enough throughout so a lot of information/knowledge was permanently lost, that loss is irrecoverable and estimates will have to be resorted to. The credibility of the estimates will be something for discussion/debate, probably for years to come. What we here on AB think in these matters will not matter anywhere beyond AB.

[davebro]

The UKs failure has been in admitting covid patients into general hospitals and discharging untested, infected individuals back into care homes!

[KARL]

Sadly, the list is much too long.

[tomus42]

This is just one of the reasons why it's pointless to compare numbers between countries and conclude we're doing better or worse than
them. The main thing is the trend, and whether it's going up or down.

[KARL]

In precise terms yes because the UK has no truly reliable records, ones that are not heavily subject to criticism/opinion but comparison between many (most ?) other countries in Europe, Asia and probably much of America North and South is quite dependable. In broad terms worldwide comparison is perfectly valid and the inescapable conclusion is that the UK shows up very badly, particularly if one looks to the UK as being "developed".