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Bad Tests And False Positives
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This is a rather long, but fascinating article
Written by a biomedical research scientist, he analyses whats wrong with the current testing procedure, why it's producing so many false positives (more than we've been told), and...yes...Matt Hancock has a lot to answer for. I've waded through about 3/4 of it. It's not easy reading, but worthwhile.
https:/
Written by a biomedical research scientist, he analyses whats wrong with the current testing procedure, why it's producing so many false positives (more than we've been told), and...yes...Matt Hancock has a lot to answer for. I've waded through about 3/4 of it. It's not easy reading, but worthwhile.
https:/
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and the bloke who owns the website is a charming chap
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The timing is not good. The false Positive is the central plan in his assertion that there will not be a second wave. Except we already have it. The news today is:
// The number of people admitted to hospital with Covid-19 on one day has jumped by nearly a quarter in England. It comes as a further 14,542 cases were confirmed across the whole of the UK on Tuesday. That daily figure has trebled in a fortnight. //
// The number of people admitted to hospital with Covid-19 on one day has jumped by nearly a quarter in England. It comes as a further 14,542 cases were confirmed across the whole of the UK on Tuesday. That daily figure has trebled in a fortnight. //
There's nothing new or special about the idea of false positives, certainly. I agree broadly with the idea that whatever is happening now is a slower roll than the first wave; I agree that recording the absolute number of cases as compared with April is highly misleading; I agree that Matt Hancock is out of his depth; and I agree that the false positive rate is important. I am not sure if I agree or not with the final conclusion. By far the most important statistics are hospitalisations and deaths, and these are both rising. I don't want to make any serious projections, but, certainly, the rolling average was increasing over September, and I would be surprised if we didn't see this continue through October.
It goes like this, and this has happened to two people that I know:
You book a test at a "drive thru" test centre, but when you get there, you book in, the queue is a mile long and hardly moving. having waited a long time, you drive off without taking the test because you have to be at another appointment.
Two days later you recive a letter telling you that you have tested positive.
The implication seems to be that if you book a test and don't take it, you'll be classed as positive.
You book a test at a "drive thru" test centre, but when you get there, you book in, the queue is a mile long and hardly moving. having waited a long time, you drive off without taking the test because you have to be at another appointment.
Two days later you recive a letter telling you that you have tested positive.
The implication seems to be that if you book a test and don't take it, you'll be classed as positive.
On the BBC site they said about false positives,
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"Figures for late September from Public Health England show that 7% of community tests were positive. That means if 1,000 people were tested with a false positive rate of 0.8%, eight would be false positives, but 70 would be true positives - the vast majority."
If seventy were said to be positive but eight of them would be false positives, should it not be only sixty-two true positives?
https:/
"Figures for late September from Public Health England show that 7% of community tests were positive. That means if 1,000 people were tested with a false positive rate of 0.8%, eight would be false positives, but 70 would be true positives - the vast majority."
If seventy were said to be positive but eight of them would be false positives, should it not be only sixty-two true positives?
// The number of people admitted to hospital with Covid-19 on one day has jumped by nearly a quarter in England.//
Reporting that hospital admissions have jumped by nearly a quarter sounds alarming but means nothing until you examine the figures. There were 478 people admitted to hospital on Sunday - up from 386 - which means 92 new admissions. From a population of 66 odd million … well, you do the math, as ‘they’ say. Additionally continual reports of the number of new cases, very, very few of which will result in death or serious illness, serves only to add to the paranoia.
Once again the language used encourages a loss of perspective - a failing throughout. I strongly suspect that this constant scaremongering will cost the population dearly .. and not only in financial terms.
Reporting that hospital admissions have jumped by nearly a quarter sounds alarming but means nothing until you examine the figures. There were 478 people admitted to hospital on Sunday - up from 386 - which means 92 new admissions. From a population of 66 odd million … well, you do the math, as ‘they’ say. Additionally continual reports of the number of new cases, very, very few of which will result in death or serious illness, serves only to add to the paranoia.
Once again the language used encourages a loss of perspective - a failing throughout. I strongly suspect that this constant scaremongering will cost the population dearly .. and not only in financial terms.
I know you don’t danny, but the numbers keep the whole thing in perspective. Without them we gain the impression that the problem is far more severe than it really is. This is being blown out of all proportion, the result being that vast swathes of the population are becoming afraid to live .... and for no good reason.
A trend has to be noted, but when compared with the first "wave" it seems clear that there's nothing to react to yet. Cases rising, some of which must be accurate, which is good from an, achieving HI, point of view, but nothing like the levels seen before. Hospital admissions and deaths rising much less again. All at manageable and more or less expected levels.
Danny, no one wants you to just hang around and die, but you have to remember that younger people aren’t in your position. You receive a regular pension and therefore you have a guaranteed income - others need to work to live. You can choose to isolate so it’s rather selfish of you to expect anyone to accept job losses and hence, poverty for themselves and their families because you want them to. I don’t think you’re being at all rational here - or fair.
