Not Sure Tiers And Lockdowns Are Working.

[Sunk]

Where I live we have been in tier 3 for 8 weeks including a month long lockdown.

But new cases are rising alarmingly, up 100 on the previous week.

Soon everyone will be in tier 4. But it just isn’t working.

[pixie374]

Doug, the original idea was only to delay things... we had already chosen to allow it into the country and overwhelm us.

[Prudie]

Douglas may well have a point. I mean what was the purpose of the Spring lockdown on reflection? Compliance was probably far greater back then but what if we were told at the time lockdown now and then face the situation we're in now come Christmas?

[emmie]

whatever has been tried hasn't worked. Social distancing, wash hands, gel, masks, hasn't halted it, but the governments needed to do something so came up with the tier system, and bubbles, so many stayed in them, but its obvious its not remotely policeable.

[douglas9401]

Anticipating the question "What would you do, just give in?" My answer would be 'well, yes, running around in circles is tiring and pointless.

[bobbinwales]

The spring lockdown was very effective and deaths fell from a peak of over 1000 a day to 10-20 a day, but maybe the goverment and us got complacent and thought we'd cracked it and the restrictions were lifted too quick. Am in agreement with a think it was sunnydave about the schools going back, its important for school children to have a structure and children dont generally get too ill from corona but it should of been clear in October/November that it was spreading fast in some schools and children were mixing outside school and infecting there famlies so the infections shot up.
Universityies was allso a problem, it spread rapid there, but that was less of a problem unless students had jobs in shops/hospitality or went shopping/drinking in town to infect others

[woofgang]

maybe another way of looking at this is to say that lockdown isn't working as well as it could/should. That's not an argument for stopping doing it...more of an argument for trying to do it better while the vaccine is rolled out. Wrapping a towel and clingfilm round a leaking pipe doesn't "work" in the sense of stopping the leak but it will slow the rate of leak while you unjam the stopcock and get the plumber in!

[pixie374]

Personally, I think it is much too little too late anyway. I know that all politicians need to worry about "popularity".
But realistically, I said nobody should be allowed into this country, as soon as we heard about it. And was told it was an overreaction or a kneejerk reaction on here, and not practically possible) although it clearly has been since.
Then, realistically, as soon as we knew it was here, we should have done a total 3/4 week lockdown. Completely. That would have killed it off.
It sounds callous, because during those 3 weeks, we would have had unnecessary deaths... I don't know what the weekly statistics would be for that. But because we didn't like that idea... we went for 70,000 plus- and counting.
Not everything is a numbers game, of course.... but we can't really complain about the numbers AND do nothing to stop it.

[emmie]

many people came into the country from early on when this virus was known about, no checks just let in - not sure whether they are doing the same now, or asking people entering the country for proof of vaccination or a negative test result.

[emmie]

suggest they are not.

[emmie]

vaccination will take an age to implement, meanwhile you can stop schools from opening, and from universities too but seems like there is no way to stop the spread of this awful virus.

[bobbinwales]

No there not emmie. The trouble is most of the peopel coming in are British citizens coming back from trips (usualy from safer countrys with lower rates than us). They could be in the early stages but still test negative when they board. Maybe they should be required to take a test 3 days before they fly and show a negative result.
Am not sure its going to make much diffrence now though- the problem is with people allready here

[bobbinwales]

Yes emmie, although if people dont mix outside the house the virus wont spread outside the house. The key is still reducing social interaction to a minimum, dont let people in your house, get fresh air but keep away from others, but when you after come close to other peopel outside your household use 2-3metre social distancing, wash hands/use sanitiser regular and take care with touching things then your face. Masks help a tiny bit but not much. Two masks or mask + viser are better

[woofgang]

pixie, a lockdown would never have "killed it off," nor was it ever intended to do so.

[pixie374]

Bobbin, in theory, yes ... in reality it seems the majority of people are still mixing at work, schools, colleges, universities, shops... and so on.
Masks aren't used correctly and are possibly worse than useless.

[pixie374]

A real one would have, woof. After 4 weeks... if there was nobody to pass it to, how would it survive?

[bobbinwales]

//Bobbin, in theory, yes ... in reality it seems the majority of people are still mixing at work, schools, colleges, universities, shops... and so on.
Masks aren't used correctly and are possibly worse than useless.//

That's because what we have in tier 4 isnt a lockdown. We need a tier 5 which has schools and colleges shut or part time one day a week or say 3 weeks on 3 weeks off, and working from home unless its essential, and maybe tier 6 where even supermarkets are only open for click and collect or a few days a week

[woofgang]

lockdown could never have been absolute though....we would still have needed food, hospitals, care homes, repair facilities, outdoor exercise and so on. It was known that contact could only ever have been minimised, not stopped completely....and the new strain has made it harder.

[pixie374]

Bobbin, even your tier 6 version, isn't a lockdown. It would have had to be a total lockdown. It would have cost lives.... not 70,000 plus though.

[pixie374]

Yes, woof.... but we only have a "new strain" from allowing the old one to flourish and mutate.
I realise that looks kind and humane superficially. But all of this seems entirely unnecessary.

[bobbinwales]

Agreed woofgang, I was just explaining how we'er well short of a lockdown.
Even a full lockdown where we'er confined to the house isnt feasable as we still need police, hospitals, emergency gas/electric/plumbing repairs, delivery drivers, key social workers, some shops for essentials/emergencies, care homes, help for the disabled, ect