Will Anyone Notice A Difference?
News4 mins ago
Germany In Grip Of 4Th Wave
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Their health minister warns that soon everyone will be vaccinated
Recovered or dead
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Recovered or dead
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// we’re not talking about proportions or ratios are we?//
yes we are
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I don’t know how much simpler to put this Peter, but I’ll try just one more time before the kettle boils. The statement I responded to was this:
//Germany’s daily cases and deaths are almost identical to the UK, 40,000+ daily cases, and 150ish deaths a day. We are quite content to do nothing.//
“Cases are almost identical to….40,000+ daily cases”. Nothing about cases per million; nothing about cases per head of population; nothing about ratios; nothing about proportions; nothing about rates; nothing about relative populations. Simply the number of cases in each of the two countries. So, if you test more people you are likely to find more infections (provided the number of infections per head of the population is in the same ball park). If you test one person you can get a number of positives between 0 and 1. If you test 1,000,000 people you can get a number of positives between 0 and 1,000,000. So which survey is likely to result in the highest number of positives, do you think?
So, bearing in mind the above, what difference does this make:
//…but - we ( on AB) do know that there are more germans 83m than there are Brits 60m//
Your distain for posters on AB is well known (e.g. “But hey, this is AB on a wet Sunday in November after all”). You believe nobody has your level of intellect and understanding. That’s your privilege. But you really must stop treating posters as being thick as two short planks, Peter.
// we’re not talking about proportions or ratios are we?//
yes we are
/////
I don’t know how much simpler to put this Peter, but I’ll try just one more time before the kettle boils. The statement I responded to was this:
//Germany’s daily cases and deaths are almost identical to the UK, 40,000+ daily cases, and 150ish deaths a day. We are quite content to do nothing.//
“Cases are almost identical to….40,000+ daily cases”. Nothing about cases per million; nothing about cases per head of population; nothing about ratios; nothing about proportions; nothing about rates; nothing about relative populations. Simply the number of cases in each of the two countries. So, if you test more people you are likely to find more infections (provided the number of infections per head of the population is in the same ball park). If you test one person you can get a number of positives between 0 and 1. If you test 1,000,000 people you can get a number of positives between 0 and 1,000,000. So which survey is likely to result in the highest number of positives, do you think?
So, bearing in mind the above, what difference does this make:
//…but - we ( on AB) do know that there are more germans 83m than there are Brits 60m//
Your distain for posters on AB is well known (e.g. “But hey, this is AB on a wet Sunday in November after all”). You believe nobody has your level of intellect and understanding. That’s your privilege. But you really must stop treating posters as being thick as two short planks, Peter.
New Judge
Your distain for posters on AB is well known (e.g. “But hey, this is AB on a wet Sunday in November after all”). You believe nobody has your level of intellect and understanding. That’s your privilege. But you really must stop treating posters as being thick as two short planks, Peter.
Yeah foo
Stop dissin us innit ?
Meanwhile matters continue apace in Europe
Not looking good
https:/
Your distain for posters on AB is well known (e.g. “But hey, this is AB on a wet Sunday in November after all”). You believe nobody has your level of intellect and understanding. That’s your privilege. But you really must stop treating posters as being thick as two short planks, Peter.
Yeah foo
Stop dissin us innit ?
Meanwhile matters continue apace in Europe
Not looking good
https:/
I will respond with as much respect as I can muster
that if you have the United Kingdom m'lud which is very large and san Marino which is very little m'lud
and so small that like the Beatles M'lud might not have heard of them
then it is sensible even for a judge to do it all by head of population ( or per million ) as a ratio. Or else Britains case fatality ratio may be very large just be weight of numbers
counsel retreats to his kennel and whispers jesus wept, did he actually GET maths CSE ? - juniors snigger
clerks whisper this is like the good old days of Melly Melford Stevenson
that if you have the United Kingdom m'lud which is very large and san Marino which is very little m'lud
and so small that like the Beatles M'lud might not have heard of them
then it is sensible even for a judge to do it all by head of population ( or per million ) as a ratio. Or else Britains case fatality ratio may be very large just be weight of numbers
counsel retreats to his kennel and whispers jesus wept, did he actually GET maths CSE ? - juniors snigger
clerks whisper this is like the good old days of Melly Melford Stevenson
//Meanwhile matters continue apace in Europe
Not looking good//
That's what happens with viruses, sticky. They have a tendency to spread.
Talking of Poland, I was led to believe (though I hadn't checked recently) that the UK had the highest death rate from Covid of any large country in Europe. I find out that's wrong. The UK has had 144,137 in a population of 67.22m (2,144 per million) whilst Poland has has 81,668 in a population of 37.95m (2,152 per million).
//...then it is sensible even for a judge to do it all by head of population ( or per million ) as a ratio.//
I completely agree, Peter. But that wasn't what I was commenting on. Gromit suggested that the UK and Germany were experiencing the same (absolute) number of daily infections. He did not mention the number per head of population (where Germany's would obviously be lower because - as I'm well aware but thanks for pointing it out - that country has a higher population).
So, if two countries experience the same number of positive tests the number of tests undertaken must be a consideration. The UK conducts a far greater number of tests than Germany. As an illustration, in week of 8th to 14th November (the last full week I can find the data for both countries) Germany ran 1,425,113 tests. In that same period the UK ran 6,034,990. So, unless the disease was far less prevalent in one country than the other (and the absolute figures do not bear that out) with over four times as many tests carried out, it is quite obvious that the UK is likely to find more positives.
Not looking good//
That's what happens with viruses, sticky. They have a tendency to spread.
Talking of Poland, I was led to believe (though I hadn't checked recently) that the UK had the highest death rate from Covid of any large country in Europe. I find out that's wrong. The UK has had 144,137 in a population of 67.22m (2,144 per million) whilst Poland has has 81,668 in a population of 37.95m (2,152 per million).
//...then it is sensible even for a judge to do it all by head of population ( or per million ) as a ratio.//
I completely agree, Peter. But that wasn't what I was commenting on. Gromit suggested that the UK and Germany were experiencing the same (absolute) number of daily infections. He did not mention the number per head of population (where Germany's would obviously be lower because - as I'm well aware but thanks for pointing it out - that country has a higher population).
So, if two countries experience the same number of positive tests the number of tests undertaken must be a consideration. The UK conducts a far greater number of tests than Germany. As an illustration, in week of 8th to 14th November (the last full week I can find the data for both countries) Germany ran 1,425,113 tests. In that same period the UK ran 6,034,990. So, unless the disease was far less prevalent in one country than the other (and the absolute figures do not bear that out) with over four times as many tests carried out, it is quite obvious that the UK is likely to find more positives.
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