Ukraine Shock

[Khandro]

Have you, like me, been building up a mental picture of the Ukrainian gains in this dreadful war?

This morning I fell upon this map which gave me something of a shock !

https://ibb.co/1GnHgZ8

[naomi24]

//Have you, like me, been building up a mental picture of the Ukrainian gains in this dreadful war? //

No. I've long held the opinion that Ukraine isn't doing as well as they say they are, and as most of us would like, and I think we're being fed a lot of propaganda from both sides.

[ichkeria]

I think that says more about your mental picture ;-)

I thought you’d been following things more closely.

[ichkeria]

The map as presented is meaningless anyway as it doesn’t tell you when that tiny bit of purple was achieved.
Overall Ukraine has retaken a sizeable amount of the territory occupied by the enemy since 2022.
Since the current counteroffensive started the progress has been slow due to the handicap of Russian minefields, a lack of air power and heavy fighting vehicles eg IFVs and tanks.
So to compensate for that Ukraine has been adopting a smarter approach aiming to attrit the enemy’s manpower and logistics and proceed much more cautiously. However those tactics are slowly but surely bearing fruit.
It’s important to follow the actual news not what you think may be happening :-)

[LadyCG]

I enjoy reading your informed posts, Ich.

[Bobbisox1]

Me too, keep posting them ich

[nicebloke1]

Well its a certain fact that the SMO is dead in the water, that's got to be a win so far for Ukraine.

[lankeela]

One of the few posters on here worth reading.

[ichkeria]

I’ve not posted much for the very reason khandro is wringing his hands: there has not been much to report progress wise since June 4.
But a few days back Ukraine won a key battle to retake the village of Robotyne, Zaporizhzhya region. “Ukraine retakes small village in S Ukraine” sniffer the NYT, but it was a vital success against some of Russia’s few remaining elite forces and clears the way for hopefully a slightly speedier advance in that area

[Khandro]

ichi; // You know I'm 100% behind a Ukrainian victory, if that is at all possible, but a bit of "hand-wringing" might be in order when I read;

'The figures remain classified. But US officials, quoted by the New York Times, recently put the number at 70,000 dead and as many as 120,000 injured. It is a staggering figure, from an armed forces estimated at only half a million strong. The UN has recorded 9,177 civilian deaths to date.'

The situation seems to me to be like that of WWI - a dreadful long bloody slog.

[retrocop]

I have just read a report that Ukraine has either adapted or manufactured a new potent and accurate missile. It took out with pin point accuracy a Russian air defence missile system. That's good news surely.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-new-super-missile-wipes-out-russian-air-defence-system-in-flawless-attack/ar-AA1fSKcw#:~:text=According%20to%20Ukrainian%20intelligence%2C%20Russia%E2%80%99s%20entire%20S-400%20air,hit%20aerial%20targets%20up%20to%20250%20miles%20away.

[ichkeria]

Those figures are almost certainly nonsense (especially those figures from the Useless Nations - the death toll for civilians is in the tens of thousands) however there’s no doubt Ukraine has lost a list of men and women and the rate has naturally increased since the counteroffensive started.
It’s a long vicious and bloody war and the price of Ukraine’s ultimate victory will be high

[ichkeria]

Military contacts I have suggest there’s a 5 to 1 ratio of deaths Russia to Ukraine which is terrible but reasonable given the nature of the fighting.
Russia’s losses are staggering: 400-600 per day. Ukraine’s will be appalling but less so. The Russians don’t value human life which can be one of the few temporary advantages they hold.
Their other advantage is their air superiority but they aren’t using it to its full effect and no one knows exactly why. I suspect the main reasons are partly to do with the nature of modern air defence which makes it much riskier for planes and possibly also a lack of motivation by the flight officer class to sacrifice itself in a pointless war.
Now the *** may be about to hit the fan in the ground it’ll be interesting to see if Russia tries to up its air attacks

[ichkeria]

“retrocop
I have just read a report that Ukraine has either adapted or manufactured a new potent and accurate missile”

Yep that’s right. They have developed are are developing their own weapons increasingly. And when the planes arrive from NATO Russia’s air superiority will disappear also

[Peter Pedant]

One of the few posters on here worth reading.

I'll frink to that. The broadsheets have been carrying the lack of progress - 70 k dead, 700 k wounded

a bit first world war - ish ( er for those who did history, which you kinda isnt that many here)

ALTHO

The Ukrainians have broken thro in some ( small places) and have marvelled at the Russian defences. Just as at Chemin des Dames er 1918 that is! when the allies broke froo in the Great War ( sozza readers), the allies too marvelled at the defences. They wondered that they cd never have broken froo if the Germans (not Nazis, too early remember) hadnt walked back to Berlin.

too comment-y for AB I agree, Lankeela

Lenin when he took power ( in Russia that is!) was asked how or what the Russian Army had voted and replied
they have voted with their feet.

[sozza double sozza I know some stalwarts on AB will try to wade froo this without any idea of what or who the Great War was]

[Peter Pedant]

Military contacts I have suggest there’s a 5 to 1 ratio of deaths Russia to Ukraine

ma daydy, as a POW interpreter talked to the Germans invading Russia - so that would be 1941-2 (ow sozza I know hundreds of ABers will be wondering: "why he do dat den?"- or even where?), and the Germans said:
we were only worried if the Russian outnumbered us 10:1.

(PP is a bad puppy intentionally commenting on wars the majority of ABers have no knowledge of)

[Peter Pedant]

spangenberg Oflag IX A/H

[Old_Geezer]

How old is the map ? And provided by who ?

[Khandro]

OG, Perhaps you can't see it ? it is inscribed:

'Source: Institute for the Study of War (21:00 GMT, 24th August)'

[jourdain2]

Like P.P. 'I'll frink to that'. Your posts are such a help in understanding what's going on Ich.
As a postscript - my brother-in-law died yesterday. I've been over today and collected a big bagful of medications such as morphine patches, a bottle of morphine & sedatives - all sorts of stuff. It will soon be on its way to a hospital in Ukraine in Zhryzn.... sorry can't spell it .... via the Hull Help for Ukraine society. Some good will come of our family tragedy. It helps.

[ichkeria]

As previously stated the map is pretty pointless if you are looking for an overview of the progress of the counteroffensive. There are far better and more detained maps available. I tend to maps like that with coloured blobs as they are not really very useful. And the more detailed ones do my head in :-)