Saturday Punt - 3 Oct 2020

[Ken4155]

This foul weather has taken a heavy toll on today's activities with Ascot abandoned and many fields decimated by non-runners. So, rather than diving in headfirst, i'm just dipping my toe in, today, with stakes lowered considerably on all my bets.

Sprightly @ 13/2 - 3.25 Red
Ben Lilly @ 11/4 - 4.00 Red
Breguet Boy @ 10/1 - 4.35 Red
Abate @ 6/1 - 5.05 Red

20p Lucky 15, £1 e.w. acca - not enough confidence to risk the usual £20 on win/e.w. singles). 4 placed = £30, 4 winners = £2,683

£1 e.w. George Scott @ boosted odds of 17.5/1 - 1.40 N'm
£2 win Billesdon Brook @ boosted odds of 10.88/1 - 2.45 N'm

Best of luck if you're having a bash.

[Togo]

Ah well not to be. The rule 4 is not at the bookies discretion and the difference in deductions triggered by withdrawn horses is dependant on a number of things not least the number of runners left in when your horse is withdrawn. We all hate rule 4.

[Ken4155]

What does Chapman know? Got every inch of the trip and loved the conditions. Only 3rd, but not beaten far. I think Enable did as well as could be expected in the heavy ground.

[Togo]

This is from Skybet's site Maydup. X pence in the pound is also given as a %. Which of course it is.

""Rule 4 covers the situation where a horse is withdrawn from a race, the odds for all bets placed on remaining horses are adjusted to account for the non-runner (s). This is because less horses in a race increases the probability of each remaining horse winning. A Rule 4 is normally expressed as x pence in the pound, and is an industry-wide rule.""

[Togo]

The winner is the one I feared Ken muddling race. Maydup is asking about rule 4 earlier. Drives us mad dunnit. Worse than the offside rule or the new handball rule in footie.

[Ken4155]

It certainly does send us round the bend, Togo. Particularly when it comes within a multiple bet. Of course, we realise the need for the Rule 4, but it doesn't make it any less frustrating.

[Maydup]

Rule of 4 does drive us all mad indeed, but I understand why it exists. Just never seen the rate vary before. 10% on one bet and 15% on the other.

Never mind, I'm up on the day as I had an each way bet on Persian King at 20/1 less 15%.

[Togo]

Just to clarify Maydup.....it also depends on the odds of the horse withdrawn. ie. An odds on favourite pulled out of a race causes a bigger % deduction because there is much less dosh in the "book" or pool after. A 50/1 horse withdrawn with therefor very little money staked on it causes barely a ripple. Some times non in a race with a big field. If a horse is withdrawn and has not come under starters orders all stakes are returned. I think the biggest deduction I ever saw was 60% when an odds on was taken out of a 4 horse race. If you have a bet ante post and it is withdrawn or is not eventually entered you lose your stake.

[Togo]

HaHa Maydup. I am guessing that if they were in the same race you placed the second bet after the first and another non runner was then declared.

[Maydup]

That's true I did place the second bet later on. The O'Brien horses were all withdrawn at the same time, but maybe there was another non-runner that I've missed.

[Togo]

I think that only the O Brien horses were actually withdrawn. Perhaps one your picks was so far out in the betting that the book share was not sufficient to warrant the 15% deduction it is all done to a very strict formula or even perhaps the O Brien horses were withdrawn as the results came in any you placed the second bet in the interim . We maybe only heard about the withdrawals after they were all declared non runners. Food for thought though as you say.

[Ken4155]

3 O'Brien horses were pulled before Sovereign was also withdrawn. I know this because i checked to see whether Moore had 'jocked' Barzelona off. Don't know how much later Sovereign was also taken out of the race.

[Togo]

Ken has the answer there. I did have a quick look to see if the times of the withdrawals were anywhere but Ken has first hand. Must have been late yesterday Ken.

[Ken4155]

It was last night, Togo, and is related to the contaminated food story. I found it odd that Sovereign was still in the line up and Barzelona still the named jockey. However, when i looked again this morning, all 4 had been taken out along with any O'Brien horses due to take part in other races. The fact that Sovereign wasn't shown as a n/r at the same time as the others may just have been an oversight by the ATR website?

[Ken4155]

Forget to mention, originally the results of the blood tests re the contaminated food were not due until this morning but O'Brien received confirmation of the positive results last night.
There was every chance the contaminant would have left the horses' systems before racing today but he didn't want to chance his arm.