The Cheltenham Festival 2021

[Ken4155]

It will no doubt be strange viewing this year with no crowds being allowed through the gates, but ITV are to include a recording of the famous 'Cheltenham Roar' when the tapes go up for the first race. They have not yet decided whether this will continue throughout the Festival. In my most humble of opinions, i believe they should - it would certainly add to the atmosphere. What say you, fellow punters?
I have been perusing the stats for the opening race, the Supreme Novices, and while the form lines would suggest either Appreciate It (5/4) or Metier (9/2) should win, there are a couple of strong stats that threaten to put me off both. Favourites have won 4 of the last 20 runnings - and none of those was under 3/1 - and horses who began their careers on the flat account for only four placed runs in the last 13 years.
Another strong stat is that only one winner from the last 10 years did not win last time out.

I'm leaning toward the JonJo trained Soaring Glory @ around the 6/1 mark.

[Ken4155]

And how many times have we seen an Henderson 1-2 at the Festival?

[Spicerack]

Fine girl, that Rachel. ;-)

[Ken4155]

She has 5 rides tomorrow, spice, and no matter what happens, she is arguably the story of this Festival. Yes, she is on some well fancied horses, but even the ones that aren't that well fancied are given good, sensible rides. On day 1 she had a winner and a 3rd; yesterday she rode the first and last winner, ending up on her aris 3 times in between and another 2 winners today - + another spell on her aris. She won't forget Cheltenham 2021 in a hurry.

Royal Kahala let my e.w. acca down, but 2 more each way bets - Flooring Porter and Storm Control - softened the blow somewhat.

Now for tonight's football - AC Milan's form isn't particularly brilliant but i can't for the life in me fathom why United are 10/11 to beat them?

[Spicerack]

Good day yesterday. (who didn't)
They're backing Rachael in the Triumph but I've been looking forward to Zanahiyr for a while so will stick with it. (same lad who tipped up on Envoi Allen yesterday. Be a nice story, wouldn't it)
I like previous winners in the Gold Cup but there are so many good horses in it, I'll just watch it I think. So many of them I'd like to see win.
Anyhow, good luck all. I'll be picking up £328,791.77 later on after my three 33/1's and the 50/1 surprise themselves and win.

[Togo]

Morning All. Crickey you are up with the birds Spice. Hopeless yesterday but hopeful today. No heroics and the Gold Cup is another tester for me. After following Frodon in every race it runs I have left him out of my main punt. I will however be having a single punt on him just in case. What I have gone for is a previous winner and is a horse that illustrates the saying that form is temporary but class is permanent. Done the ITV7 as per. Jackpot/Placepot and a little acca on the ITV& popular picks. Will also be having a look at Langer Dan in the last after success last Saturday with him. Singles as and when if the price is better than 2s with an Acca, Doubles, & Trebles on ****
Good Luck. Off out handy for a wander.

Quilixios @2/1 1.20Ch
Propagation @13/2 1.35Ling(ITV7 bets only)
Ganapathi* @6/1 1.55Ch
Stattler* @9/2 2.30Ch
Native River @14/1 3.05Ch
Bob and Co* @9/2 3.40Ch
Colreevy* @7/2 4.15Ch

[Spicerack]

I notice ITV don't show the 'away race' that makes the ITV7 up. Unless I've just missed it, seems rather odd.

[Spicerack]

Just got in, Togo. ;-)

[Ken4155]

Morning, both. They do it regularly, Spice. Obviously it would cost them a bit to send their cameras to a track just for the one race but i'm sure they could come to some arrangement with one of the 'firms', most of whom provide live coverage for their punters.
Just finished trawling through the stats for the final day of the Festival - did a couple of hours last night - and 'all' i have to do now is to wade through my 'shortlists' :-//

[Everhelpful]

How are they getting away with a horse's name: Fircombe
Hall in the 7.45 at Southwell? I know it's not Cheltenham sorry.

[Ken4155]

Everhelpful, every now and then, one slips through the scrutiny and i guess the fact there actually is a Fircombe Hall would have helped.

[Ken4155]

Done the £1 e.w. on most popular ITV 7 picks. My selections for the ITV 7 are; Tritonic, Lead Story, Champagne Gold, Alaphilipe, Champ, It Came To Pass & Elimay. £1 e.w. acca.

Main bet;

1.55; Champagne Gold @ 6/1 (8 places)
2.30; Alaphilipe @ 14/1 (4 places)
3.40; It Came To Pass @ 17/2 (4 places)
4.50; Fire Attack @ 11/1 (6 places)

Win singles, 20p Lucky 15, £1 e.w. acca. 4 placed = poss £62, 4 winners = poss £13,209.

£5 win Champ @ 13/2 in the Gold Cup

Placepot; 6-9-2-5-5-2

Just putting finishing touches to e.w. bets. Best of luck, all.

[Spicerack]

2 questions, save me looking them up. Paul Nicholls hasn't had a winner yet, has he? Is this a blip or is his stable in general decline/ had sickness problems?
3 questions. Is it about 2 weeks to the start of the flat?

[Ken4155]

Nicholls hasn't had a winner so far, Spice, but i haven't read that there is anything untoward with the stable.
The Lincoln is on Sat 27 March, Spice, the opening day of the flat season.

[Ken4155]

My each way Cheltenham bets;

1.55; Saint D'oroux @ 40/1 - 8 places
2.30; The Cob @ 33/1 - 4 places
3.05; Lostintranslation @ 28/1 - 5 places
3.40; Hazel Hill @ 22/1 - 4 places
4.50; Frontal Assault @ 14/1 - 6 places

Also a £3 win (£1 of it free) on Tritonic at 4/1 in the opener.

[Ken4155]

Further to my Nicholls answer, he last had a winner on 15 Mar. He has had 11 Festival runners with just 4 placed to show for his efforts.

[DTCwordfan]

for those of you race fans who don't read the D-Tel - this is brilliant!!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/PortalPictures/March2021/1903-MATT-PORTAL-WEB-P1.png?imwidth=320

[Ken4155]

Overall, some really good races this week with some horses winning by the length of my street. Remains to be seen if these horses really are so far in front of the others, or whether it was just the way things panned out.
From a financial point of view, a quick bit of mental arithmetic tells me that whether i won or lost is so negligible, it's not really worth taking my mitts off and counting properly:-)
As i said in one of my earlier posts, this Festival will be remembered for the exploits of Rachel Blackmore but whether this will herald an upsurge in lady riders fortunes is debatable. There were 117 horses declared to run at Cheltenham today; take out the 5 Rachel rode, and only 6 other horses were due to be ridden by a female.
Roll on next year :-)

[Togo]

Langer Dan almost turned it around for me at the death, Bit of e/w money back again is all despite having two winners. Ahh well said the soul. ITV7 is a must tomorrow, £300k I think.