Election Predictions

[Gromit]

650 seats, 326 is a win. My prediction is:-

Conservative 102
Labour 418     
LibDem 82    
SNP 20   
Reform 5   
Others 23

I am probably massively wrong. What is your prediction ?

[davebro3]

The figures given are based on an extremely unusual GE result which has emerged purely from the Lab/Con dichotomy.

You are assuming that a strong government "doing stuff" is good for the country! Look where that has got us.

There are probably things in all the major parties that they can agree on and which could be put into effect with the more extreme policies being ditched.

At the moment the right & left seem opposed to each other simple because they always have been and are supposed to be. Periodic extreme policy swings are not a good way to run a country.

[THECORBYLOON]

Another issue with PR is the SNP and Plaid Cymru stand only in their own countries.

The SNP would have had twenty seats based on the percentage of the UK votes and seats in the UK Parliament.

Using their percentage of votes in Scotland and the fifty-seven seats in Scotland, they would have had seventeen seats.

Which method should be used?

[ynnafymmi]

Hi,TCL,how you doing hun.Everything allright with you.Everything hunky-dory hun?

[Untitled]

"How on Earth could the country be governed with a Parliament of that composition?"

Labour-led coalition with liberals and greens. this kind of scenario is perfectly normal in other countries which are just as well run or better run than the UK is. 
 

"There would be endless bickering and arguing and anything which did eventually pass muster would be hopelessly watered down in the name of “compromise”. "

you write this as if it were a dirty word. in practice governing a democratic country requires tradeoffs between competing groups of citizens. compromise is not any more or less likely to produce bad laws or bad policies than single party government is.

"But it has provided for a stable government which is unlikely to be distracted from its aims by Parliamentary bickering"

it seems as though you do not particularly like living in a parliamentary democracy newjudge because you dishonestly spin everything that parliament does as "bickering". what truly castrates parliament is its subordination to one or other authoritarian party machines which rely on controlling its members by hook or by crook in order to get anything done. What you call "bickering" is parliament doing what it is supposed to do. I do like democracy and I think our country would be a better place to live if it became one. the present situation where we are doomed to complete control by one of two large minorities has not produced a well governed country. 

 

[wiltsman]

davebro3 .. Thurs 4th 21.34

How did you get on eating your hat?

Was it boiled, roasted, fried, maybe air fried? I'm sure many on here would love to know how you got on. I know you always tell the truth, so we know you must have eaten it. Just tell us what the taste was like!

 

[davebro3]

I tried but I just couldn't stomach it!🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[davebro3]

PS. - Lib non Dems will be back to single figures next time - it's what they do!

[Hopkirk]

All praise to Gromit for an amazingly accurate forecast. The BBC should get you in to help next time.

[wiltsman]

davebro3 ... 15.04 & 15.09

Thanks for letting us know you tried anyway! We believe you😏😄🤣

[jourdain2]

Gromit - I was right about the Muslim vote anyway!!  :)

[Gromit]

jourdain2

You were. I think Labour lost 2 seats to Independent Gaza candidates.   
But did win Rochdale back. 😀

[Ken4155]

The Muslim Council of Burnley 'apparently' pledged their votes to the LibDems because of Labour's stance over Gaza. Reports suggested that Councillor Birtwistle would receive all 11,000 of their votes, putting him in with a good chance of 'returning' to Parliament - he was our MP a few years back.

Quite a few Muslims must have reneged because he only got 9,000 and odd votes in total. Wonder if the Imams know who these renegers are

[Gromit]

Jourdain2,   
I was wrong, Labour lost 4 seats to Gaza independents.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/07/who-are-the-pro-gaza-independents-who-unseated-labour-mps