Does Cameron's Failure Make A Eu Referendum Less Likely?

[Gromit]

// Others felt that a referendum in 2017 was now less likely because Mr Cameron's inability to persuade others to stop Mr Juncker could boost UKIP - and, in turn, prevent an overall Conservative majority in next year's general election.

One backbencher confided: "UKIP will split the vote across constituencies and make it less likely to get a referendum. It could put [Ed] Miliband in Downing Street. The stakes are really high." //

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28060930

Has this Junckers failure been a big gift to UKiP, and make a Conservative election victory less likely?

[mikey4444]

In order to have a referendum on Britain's continuing membership of the EU, dave first of all has to win the Election next May. The only other Party that has any chance of winning, Labour, have shown no enthusiasm for a referendum. Judging by Farage's media interviews over the last 48 hours, dave is in danger of losing even more votes to UKIP than he was before, making a Labour vote more likely.

So, in my opinion, which won't be popular of course here on AB, its a Yes to your last sentence Gromit. Another nail in daves coffin.

[Sqad]

Not a great week for the Conservative enthusiasts.

\\\\Has this Junckers failure been a big gift to UKiP, and make a Conservative election victory less likely?\\\

90% of the electorate still feel that Junckers was a German bomber in World War 2 and in 6 months time will struggle to remember the incident.

If the election was today, then Labour would be the Government.

The effect of this episode and UKIP as a whole?.......who knows?

[mikey4444]

Morning Sqad ! Yes, as you say. I haven't posted any Polls for a while ::

http://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/politics/

Still no sign whatsoever of dave making any headway into the Labour lead. Next week this website will be updated ::

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Its going to be interesting to see how recent events since June 1st have effected the calculations.

What has been particularly galling these last couple of days, is how Farage, through his grouping in Brussels voted for Mr Junkers !

[jomifl]

Of course if we do have an EU referendum we will still stay in the common market because we had an irreversible referendum for that, assuming that the common market components still exist within the EU?

[Sqad]

mikey...Labour lead of .............5%

Not good enough.....nowhere near good enough.

The picture has been a declining lead by Labour over the Tories in the past 4 years.

[mikey4444]

Not sure of the legal position jomifl but as I understand it, any referendum will be a simple in or out. If the vote is out, then the Government of the time can hardly ignore it can it ?

[mikey4444]

Sqad....look at the past YouGov Polls....they vary as all Polls do but have been as high as a 6 lead for Labour and that was only last weekend. Electoral Calculus are very accurate as a rule and they predict a 57% chance of Labour winning but only 10% for the Tories. Coalitions are showing even smaller percentages.

But the important aspect of these Polls is that they show the Tories cannot get ahead. Its been like that since soon after the 2010 election. dave only has a few months to turn things around and this week hasn't exactly helped them has it, as you yourself have admitted ?

[Canary42]

Opting out of the EU is cowardly. We need to stay in, and continue fighting for its reform and improvement - if we leave then we will become increasingly marginalised and decline into the Third World country into which our size and resources really place us. Both the main parties (Left and Right) recognise this: UKIP are just a power-hungry mob using populist hysteria to achieve their own ends with little real regard (or understanding) of Government and its responsibilities.

One defeat and run away is NOT the way to go. I hate the Tories but at least two of their obnoxious Leaders had/have the guts to oppose the EU when it went awry, and to continue to do so even when occasionally thwarted.

[ichkeria]

This is disastrous grandstanding by Cameron. There was never a chance that he could stop Juncker being picked in that way. As Ed Miliband has said, the best way to do it would have been a quiet building of alliances rather than a very public show of defiance, which in all honesty is simply going to make some countries go the other way.
One wonders what his motives are.

[ludwig]

Gawd 'elp us. Mikey's on about the polls again.

I'll be honest, the politics and motivations behind all of this has gone over my head. I don't know who Cameron thinks his audience is - the electorate, his backbenchers, the EU, UKIP, I have no idea.
I don't think this is necessarily bad for Cameron or Britain though. The key thing is that the EU is desperate for Britain to stay in, so anything that looks like it could lead to us going out will result in concessions, which will result in Cameron looking good again.

[anotheoldgit]

Canary42

/// Opting out of the EU is cowardly. We need to stay in, and continue fighting for its reform and improvement - if we leave then we will become increasingly marginalised and decline into the Third World country into which our size and resources really place us. Both the main parties (Left and Right) recognise this: ///

But obviously it seems that the people do not.

If staying in Europe is as good as you say it is, then you have nothing to worry about the British public having a referendum over it, what are you and Labour frightened of, could it be that the majority of the British people don't agree with you?

[ToraToraTora]

No

[Gromit]

AOG

The majority of the British people want to stay IN the EU.

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/06/17/eu-referendum-record-lead/

[New Judge]

There is not a cat in hell's chance of any "concessions" being gained by Mr Cameron either before 2017 or after. The EU is set on its way to becoming a federal state. It may take a little longer than the euromaniacs would have liked, but it will come to pass before the bloc disintegrates in mayhem (as all such organisations eventually do). Most of the other nations in the EU like it the way it is. They gain huge amounts financially from it, they can rid themselves of the tiresome chore of having to provide employment (or welfare) and services for a substantial number of their population (who *** off to the greener grass elsewhere) and they have little or nothing to lose by the reciprocal arrangements that are said to be of such benefit (how many people from the UK have settled to work in Poland or Romania recently?) .

That is why all the talk of "democracy" in Europe is so misleading. For most of the nations and the vast majority of the 500m people, membership of the EU is like being granted access to Bill Gate's bank account. What is there not to like? (unless you are Bill Gates?)

Despite recent minor and isolated recoveries The EU's economy (especially that of the eurozone) is in decline. The UK needs to form trading alliances with expanding and growing economies and develop flexible lightly regulated agreements with them. It cannot do that whilst it is constrained by its membership of the moribund EU.

The UK electorate should be told the truth - that the EU is set on becoming a single political entity. That is even more likely now that Mr Juncker has been shoehorned into position. It is no longer about trade, it is about political integration and there will be no change to that aim. A more rigorous analysis also needs to be provided on the trading consequences for the UK should it withdraw. The bland "3m jobs are at risk" is misleading and unhelpful. There are plenty of analyses available which paint a starkly different picture. If the majority of the UK electorate wants to go down the road to a federal Europe then so be it, but all this fannying around talking of "reform" is disingenuous with the truth and Mr Cameron knows it now more than he ever did.

[ichkeria]

"What has been particularly galling these last couple of days, is how Farage, through his grouping in Brussels voted for Mr Junkers ! "

But Farage wants Juncker because it fits his idea of where he wants the EU to go. Farage and UKIP are ideologically opposed to the EU so anything which in their eyes makes it worse is very appealing to them

[mikey4444]

Er ? ...thanks ichkeria, although I think you are crediting Mr Farage his band of merry men with a lot more wit than they can muster.

Leaving the EU would be an absolute disaster for him, as it would cut off his gravy train off with immediate effect, and its his only political posting ! What else could he do...sell double glazing door-to-door ? He might make a very good Betterware Man !

[New Judge]

You do Mr Farage a grave disservice, mikey.

Unusually among today's politicians he had a very successful career before entering politics. He worked as a commodities broker and trader, most notably working for the London Metal Exchange. True, he wasn't a coal miner or a social worker so it could be said that he has no idea what real work is all about. But some people have to do the less glamorous jobs which are needed to keep the country going.

One thing's for sure. Mr Farage will not starve if and when he leaves politics and I don't think he will become a double glazing salesman or a Betterware consultant.

[mikey4444]

I stand corrected then NJ....Mr Farage can always go back to the City to make some money, rather than scrounge off the EU !

[Gromit]

Not sure it is a surprise that Farage supported Junckers. Junckers was the conservative candidate. It was either him or a socialist, a communist, a real federalist or a couple of Greens. What was more of a surprise was Cameron was unable to support the conservative.

Leaving the EPP Grouping 5 years was a terrible unforced error.