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Electoralcalculus Updated
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They don't show the previous update, so here it it ::
CON....263........now.....251
LAB.....302........now.....316
LIB......16..........now.....19
UKIP.....0...........now.....0
NAT......50.........now.....45
MIN......19..........now.....19
So the difference in predicted seats for May 205 are CON = 12 less, LAB = 14 more, and NAT 5 less. So, still no seats predicted for UKIP.
LAB now has a 42% of an over all majority, up from 34%, and CON now has a 8% chance, down from 12%. Bear in mind that was based on Polls 07/11 to 28/11, so would include the latest UKIP win in Rochester.
I will update again at the end of December.
They don't show the previous update, so here it it ::
CON....263........now.....251
LAB.....302........now.....316
LIB......16..........now.....19
UKIP.....0...........now.....0
NAT......50.........now.....45
MIN......19..........now.....19
So the difference in predicted seats for May 205 are CON = 12 less, LAB = 14 more, and NAT 5 less. So, still no seats predicted for UKIP.
LAB now has a 42% of an over all majority, up from 34%, and CON now has a 8% chance, down from 12%. Bear in mind that was based on Polls 07/11 to 28/11, so would include the latest UKIP win in Rochester.
I will update again at the end of December.
Answers
Go for them Mikey,don,t let the B-s-----s get you down.
08:51 Mon 01st Dec 2014
mikey........again some amateur observations.
From the above polls:
Labour.....doing nicely....popularity increasing.....all on for success.
Conservatives.....oh! dear.....losing ground.
Lib.....good news.....popularity increasing.
UKIP......no better...no worse....hardly a threat to any party.
Now let us sit down with our mates.....try to fathom the mood of the country at the moment...pubs, clubs, homes throughout the country...and this is what I am hearing.......
Labour...struggling ...really struggling.
Conservatives.....going nowhere.
Libs......sinking without trace.
UKIP....now a force in UK Politics......not to be ignored.
Now mikey.........who is correct?
P.S another *** stupid Best Answer...par for the AB course.
From the above polls:
Labour.....doing nicely....popularity increasing.....all on for success.
Conservatives.....oh! dear.....losing ground.
Lib.....good news.....popularity increasing.
UKIP......no better...no worse....hardly a threat to any party.
Now let us sit down with our mates.....try to fathom the mood of the country at the moment...pubs, clubs, homes throughout the country...and this is what I am hearing.......
Labour...struggling ...really struggling.
Conservatives.....going nowhere.
Libs......sinking without trace.
UKIP....now a force in UK Politics......not to be ignored.
Now mikey.........who is correct?
P.S another *** stupid Best Answer...par for the AB course.
Sqad...the Pollsters have interviewed 100,000's of people over the last few months...probably more. Not sure how many people you have spoken to but its unlikely to be even a tiny fraction of that. The higher the amount of people that are Polled, the higher the degree of accuracy.
For want of any other reliable info, I think you got it right in the your initial analysis. By the way, I will give BA to whoever I think deserves it...you never know, it might be you next time !
For want of any other reliable info, I think you got it right in the your initial analysis. By the way, I will give BA to whoever I think deserves it...you never know, it might be you next time !
